...Dangerous Hurricane Emily continues to strengthen... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 15.6 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 180 miles... 285 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 440 miles... 705 km...southeast of Grand Cayman. Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially above 3000 feet. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches. Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 5 am AST position...15.6 N... 75.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am AST. Forecaster Stewart $$ |
Thank you for the update, this is a very strong storm, 140mph wind, at what point does it become a cat 5?
Air Force recon data near 06z indicated the central pressure had fallen to 953 mb...and a 700 mb flight-level wind of 131 kt...or 118 kt equivalent surface winds...was observed in the northeast quadrant during the outbound leg. Given that the 15 nmi diameter eye has cleared out nicely since the recon flight...and that ODT values over the past 1.5h have been t6.5/127 kt...the intensity for the advisory is being conservatively increased to 120 kt. The impressive outflow pattern also continues to improve. The initial motion remains 285/16. Emily has been on a 285 degree heading for the past 48 hours...and I see no indications that that motion should significantly change any time soon. Upper-air data at 00z indicates 24-hour 700-400 mb heights across Florida have increased by about 20 meters. This would suggest that...at least in the short term...Emily should continue on its current motion and pass more than 60 nmi south of Jamaica later today. Beyond that... the models are in reasonable agreement on Emily making landfall along the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. By 72 hours...a fairly vigorous shortwave trough currently approaching the U.S. Pacific northwest is forecast to dig east-southeastward into the central U.S. And weaken the subtropical ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This may allow Emily to briefly move more northwestward...before turning back toward the west as the shortwave trough moves quickly away from the area and allows the ridge to build strongly westward. Location of a second landfall is diffcult to predict at 96 hours...but the most likely area appears to be from southern Texas to northeastern Mexico. The eye is embedded in the center of a nice round CDO...and with warmer water ahead of the cyclone and very favorable outflow...the only inhibiting intensity factors should be eyewall replacement cycles and land interaction. Emily is expected to lose about 30 kt as it passes over the Yucatan...but it could regain category 3 strength due to 29-30c SSTs over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a very favorable outflow pattern. Forecaster Stewart Forecast positions and Max winds initial 16/0900z 15.6n 75.8w 120 kt 12hr VT 16/1800z 16.3n 78.3w 125 kt 24hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 81.5w 120 kt 36hr VT 17/1800z 18.9n 84.7w 120 kt 48hr VT 18/0600z 20.3n 87.6w 115 kt...inland over Yucatan 72hr VT 19/0600z 23.1n 92.9w 90 kt...over southwest gulfmex 96hr VT 20/0600z 25.0n 97.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 21/0600z 26.0n 102.5w 35 kt...inland over nrn Mexico $$ |