16 July: 4:15z
Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
She's now at that latitude for the point from earlier, still well east.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-332-1121486600.jpg
They just reset the track, so that's the last we will see of it, but she is definately getting a kick north tonight.
I stole your idea, and created a topic about it... some good thoughts in there.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=41332
Here's a link to a South Padre surf cam and other weather info.
http://www.spadre.com/surfcam.htm
In the last hour it seems to have wobbled back to the west, it ended up hitting that forecast point.
Not quite, see 641... there was a wobble, but it resumed the earlier course, or wobbled again. ;-) They just reset to the new track, so it shows it being close to the point it started at.
Never say never...and don't plan a trip to Cancun for Sunday.
lol--they moved the forecast point.
My bad...they reset the forecast points since that post. You're right, it tracked north.
I caught it right after I posted.
Good discussion--thanks for the links.
lol...I'm an engineer that now works in marketing. I should know that periodically revising the forecast always makes the forecast look better.
Thanks. 30 years ago we used to hit Isabele when it was kicking, now teaching grandsons at Port Aransas. Or trying anyway, they like boggie boards better.
haha...I'm an old nurse who used to plot vital signs.
16 July: 4:15z
Please color me the two walls (figuratively). I would have guessed a stadium effect.
I'm not sure if there is a good way to tell if there is a stadium effect on IR.. But, the 4:31 image shows an even more well defined (warmer) eye... the way this storm looked earlier, we would probably see the effect on vis (too bad we can't turn on the lights!).
The water vapor loop shows some very interesting changes. Initial frames show the clear eye, leading to the ERC in the latter frames. I just don't know exactly how to identify the structures.
I've got toothpicks propping my eyes open so I can see the next update in 30 minutes.
This hurricane stuff is mesmerizing.
no kidding. What a difference a half-day makes.
Indeed. I would think it's past 135mph at this point, not sure if they still have a plane in there though.
...Catgeory four Hurricane Emily getting better organized southeast of Jamaica...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 200 am AST...0600z...the government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 15.3 north... longitude 75.0 west or about 215 miles... 350 km... southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 495 miles... 795 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Emily will be pass to the south of Jamaica during the late morning and into the afternoon.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are at least 135 mph...215 km/hr... with higher gusts. This means Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes and can be expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. NOAA buoy 42058 located about 40 miles southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 953 mb...28.14 inches.
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...15.3 N... 75.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
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