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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: NautiNurse

She's now at that latitude for the point from earlier, still well east.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-332-1121486600.jpg

They just reset the track, so that's the last we will see of it, but she is definately getting a kick north tonight.

I stole your idea, and created a topic about it... some good thoughts in there.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=41332


641 posted on 07/15/2005 9:19:03 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: SouthTexas

Here's a link to a South Padre surf cam and other weather info.

http://www.spadre.com/surfcam.htm


642 posted on 07/15/2005 9:22:09 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: NautiNurse
She's matched the next forecast point for lat, and she's well east of lon point.

In the last hour it seems to have wobbled back to the west, it ended up hitting that forecast point.

643 posted on 07/15/2005 9:25:20 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: SC Swamp Fox

Not quite, see 641... there was a wobble, but it resumed the earlier course, or wobbled again. ;-) They just reset to the new track, so it shows it being close to the point it started at.


644 posted on 07/15/2005 9:26:42 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Dog Gone
I guess there's not much chance that Emily could cross the Panama Canal and enter the Pacific....

Never say never...and don't plan a trip to Cancun for Sunday.

645 posted on 07/15/2005 9:27:38 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: SC Swamp Fox
it ended up hitting that forecast point.

lol--they moved the forecast point.

646 posted on 07/15/2005 9:30:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

My bad...they reset the forecast points since that post. You're right, it tracked north.


647 posted on 07/15/2005 9:30:57 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: nwctwx

I caught it right after I posted.


648 posted on 07/15/2005 9:32:00 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: nwctwx

Good discussion--thanks for the links.


649 posted on 07/15/2005 9:35:20 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse; nwctwx

lol...I'm an engineer that now works in marketing. I should know that periodically revising the forecast always makes the forecast look better.


650 posted on 07/15/2005 9:35:29 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: RGVTx

Thanks. 30 years ago we used to hit Isabele when it was kicking, now teaching grandsons at Port Aransas. Or trying anyway, they like boggie boards better.


651 posted on 07/15/2005 9:36:53 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SC Swamp Fox
lol...I'm an engineer that now works in marketing.

haha...I'm an old nurse who used to plot vital signs.

652 posted on 07/15/2005 9:41:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: All; SC Swamp Fox; NautiNurse
Concentric eywall shows up nicely in this newer image. (click thumbnail)

16 July: 4:15z

653 posted on 07/15/2005 9:44:56 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Please color me the two walls (figuratively). I would have guessed a stadium effect.


654 posted on 07/15/2005 9:48:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I'm not sure if there is a good way to tell if there is a stadium effect on IR.. But, the 4:31 image shows an even more well defined (warmer) eye... the way this storm looked earlier, we would probably see the effect on vis (too bad we can't turn on the lights!).


655 posted on 07/15/2005 9:51:10 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
I don't doubt you are correct about the concentric eyewalls. I compare reading the sats to learning to read x-rays.

The water vapor loop shows some very interesting changes. Initial frames show the clear eye, leading to the ERC in the latter frames. I just don't know exactly how to identify the structures.

656 posted on 07/15/2005 9:56:47 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I've got toothpicks propping my eyes open so I can see the next update in 30 minutes.

This hurricane stuff is mesmerizing.


657 posted on 07/15/2005 10:30:14 PM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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To: nwctwx

no kidding. What a difference a half-day makes.


658 posted on 07/15/2005 10:36:20 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: rwfromkansas

Indeed. I would think it's past 135mph at this point, not sure if they still have a plane in there though.


659 posted on 07/15/2005 10:40:16 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Miztiki; nwctwx
Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 21a

Statement as of 2:00 am AST on July 16, 2005

 
...Catgeory four Hurricane Emily getting better organized southeast
of Jamaica...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
At 200 am AST...0600z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 15.3 north... longitude 75.0 west or about 215
miles... 350 km... southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 495
miles... 795 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of Emily will be
pass to the south of Jamaica during the late morning and into the
afternoon.

 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are at least 135 mph...215 km/hr...
with higher gusts.  This means Emily is a category four hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations in
strength are common in major hurricanes and can be expected during
the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to  60 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  NOAA buoy 42058 located about 40 miles
southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 47
mph.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 953 mb...28.14 inches.

 
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Repeating the 2 am AST position...15.3 N... 75.0 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 5 am AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

660 posted on 07/15/2005 11:03:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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