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Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 21a
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on July 16, 2005

 
...Catgeory four Hurricane Emily getting better organized southeast
of Jamaica...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
At 200 am AST...0600z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 15.3 north... longitude 75.0 west or about 215
miles... 350 km... southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 495
miles... 795 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of Emily will be
pass to the south of Jamaica during the late morning and into the
afternoon.

 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are at least 135 mph...215 km/hr...
with higher gusts.  This means Emily is a category four hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations in
strength are common in major hurricanes and can be expected during
the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to  60 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  NOAA buoy 42058 located about 40 miles
southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 47
mph.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 953 mb...28.14 inches.

 
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Repeating the 2 am AST position...15.3 N... 75.0 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 5 am AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart