Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
That looks better than it has. Would still be a pretty big rainmaker and thats where much of the problem starts anyway.
I was discussing the 95 cane season earlier with a few people... there are some striking similarities to this summer and that one. Certainly an interesting theory, and I can only hope it's a sign of the winter to come here in the northeast. ;-)
It's taking it's time, but it definately seems to have bottomed out (tough to tell with the earlier satellite outage), should be outta there by tomorrow.
Meteorologist Dave Tolleris' Friday night show is coming on now (10pm EDT)... Should be some good hurricane info.
BROADBAND: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
DIAL-UP: http://216.127.93.220:9032/listen.pls
She's looking mean, and she's jogged more to the NW. If this motion maintains, she may well skirt the Yucatan Peninsula.
552 URNT12 KNHC 160113 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 16/00:56:50Z B. 14 deg 58 min N 073 deg 41 min W C. 700 mb 2711 m D. NA kt E. 000 deg 000 nm F. 207 deg 103 kt G. 109 deg 005 nm H. 956 mb I. 11 C/ 3050 m J. 14 C/ 3047 m K. 11 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. E27/12/06 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF308 0605A EMILY OB 11 CCA MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 23:20:40 Z MAX FL TEMP 19 C 109 / 06 NM FROM FL CNTR |
DT saying Yucatan benchmark crucial. If it comes in south of the northern most tip, he doesn't see a TX hit.
Not a Texas hit, so where does he think it might hit? Matamoros, Mexico?
He's still concerned about the Brownsville to Corpus Christi area, as I think most people with some meteorological knowledge are. Says next 24 hours is critical for the remainder of the TX coast, but leaning against a hit from Houston to the north.
Yes, she seems to be doing a much better job coming north tonight. Certainly something to keep an eye on.
Well, that still leaves me in the crosshairs. Thanks for the info.
183 URNT12 KNHC 160240 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 16/02:20:40Z B. 15 deg 01 min N 074 deg 02 min W C. 700 mb 2708 m D. NA kt E. deg nm F. 277 deg 077 kt G. 218 deg 007 nm H. 954 mb I. 12 C/ 3060 m J. 17 C/ 3053 m K. 10 C/ NA L. OPEN S-SE M. C10 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF308 0605A EMILY OB 17 MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 01:01:00 Z MAX FL TEMP 23 C 205 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR |
Not bad on the winds for the NW Quad, prob near 120mph sustaine now.
...Major Hurricane Emily again strengthens to category 4...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 15.1 north... longitude 74.2 west or about 265 miles... 425 km... southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 545 miles... 880 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track... the center of Emily will be passing not far to the south of Jamaica on Saturday.
Data from a United States Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is now a dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes and can be expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean Sea recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph...tropical storm force.
The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 954 mb...28.17 inches.
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...15.1 N... 74.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Knabb
wowser is right!
Emily had some struggles today--falling to a Cat 2.
Category 4 storm again, winds 135 mph.
Hurricane warning for Jamaica and Caymens.
If Emily goes in between Brownsville and Corpus...that's the very best possible place. There is nothing in that area but the KING RANCH. You've got 180-200 miles of one huge ranch, that's it. That's where Bret went in in '99.
bleh, forgot a tag. ;<
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.