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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: SouthTexas
Still doesn't look good for South Texas.


601 posted on 07/15/2005 5:53:12 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

That looks better than it has. Would still be a pretty big rainmaker and thats where much of the problem starts anyway.


602 posted on 07/15/2005 6:14:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: rwfromkansas

I was discussing the 95 cane season earlier with a few people... there are some striking similarities to this summer and that one. Certainly an interesting theory, and I can only hope it's a sign of the winter to come here in the northeast. ;-)


603 posted on 07/15/2005 6:54:11 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: jpsb

It's taking it's time, but it definately seems to have bottomed out (tough to tell with the earlier satellite outage), should be outta there by tomorrow.


604 posted on 07/15/2005 6:57:52 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: All

Meteorologist Dave Tolleris' Friday night show is coming on now (10pm EDT)... Should be some good hurricane info.

BROADBAND: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
DIAL-UP: http://216.127.93.220:9032/listen.pls


605 posted on 07/15/2005 7:04:03 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx; Dog Gone
What a difference a few hours make--again.

She's looking mean, and she's jogged more to the NW. If this motion maintains, she may well skirt the Yucatan Peninsula.



552 
URNT12 KNHC 160113 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/00:56:50Z
B. 14 deg 58 min N
  073 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2711 m
D. NA  kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 207 deg 103 kt
G. 109 deg 005 nm
H.         956 mb
I.  11 C/ 3050 m
J.  14 C/ 3047 m
K.  11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E27/12/06
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF308 0605A EMILY        OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 23:20:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C  109 / 06 NM  FROM FL CNTR

606 posted on 07/15/2005 7:17:27 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

DT saying Yucatan benchmark crucial. If it comes in south of the northern most tip, he doesn't see a TX hit.


607 posted on 07/15/2005 7:22:22 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Not a Texas hit, so where does he think it might hit? Matamoros, Mexico?


608 posted on 07/15/2005 7:31:25 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: nwctwx
Makes sense to me. IR Loop Click on the Trop Fcst Pts. She's matched the next forecast point for lat, and she's well east of lon point.
609 posted on 07/15/2005 7:32:02 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: RGVTx

He's still concerned about the Brownsville to Corpus Christi area, as I think most people with some meteorological knowledge are. Says next 24 hours is critical for the remainder of the TX coast, but leaning against a hit from Houston to the north.


610 posted on 07/15/2005 7:34:23 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Yes, she seems to be doing a much better job coming north tonight. Certainly something to keep an eye on.


611 posted on 07/15/2005 7:36:14 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Well, that still leaves me in the crosshairs. Thanks for the info.


612 posted on 07/15/2005 7:40:22 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: nwctwx

Tropical Weather Statements



183 
URNT12 KNHC 160240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/02:20:40Z
B. 15 deg 01 min N
  074 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2708 m
D. NA  kt
E.     deg     nm
F. 277 deg 077 kt
G. 218 deg 007 nm
H.         954 mb
I.  12 C/ 3060 m
J.  17 C/ 3053 m
K.  10 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SE
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 /  2 nm
P. AF308 0605A EMILY        OB 17
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 01:01:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C  205 / 5 NM  FROM FL CNTR



613 posted on 07/15/2005 7:42:58 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Not bad on the winds for the NW Quad, prob near 120mph sustaine now.


614 posted on 07/15/2005 7:49:24 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx; Dog Gone; mhking
Wowser--

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on July 15, 2005

 
...Major Hurricane Emily again strengthens to category 4...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border to Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 15.1 north... longitude 74.2 west or about 265
miles... 425 km... southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 545
miles... 880 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.  On this track... the center of Emily will be
passing not far to the south of Jamaica on Saturday. 

 
Data from a United States Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 135
mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts.  Emily is now a dangerous
category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Some
fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes and can be
expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.  NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean Sea
recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph...tropical storm force.

 
The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 954 mb...28.17 inches.

Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...15.1 N... 74.2 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

 

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.

 
Forecaster Knabb

615 posted on 07/15/2005 7:54:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

wowser is right!


616 posted on 07/15/2005 7:56:52 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; alnick; Amelia; asp1; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; blueberry12; bonfire; ...

Emily had some struggles today--falling to a Cat 2.

Category 4 storm again, winds 135 mph.

Hurricane warning for Jamaica and Caymens.

617 posted on 07/15/2005 8:00:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
I know images are a no-no, but here is the track point you were talking about.
618 posted on 07/15/2005 8:04:25 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
He's still concerned about the Brownsville to Corpus Christi area

If Emily goes in between Brownsville and Corpus...that's the very best possible place. There is nothing in that area but the KING RANCH. You've got 180-200 miles of one huge ranch, that's it. That's where Bret went in in '99.

619 posted on 07/15/2005 8:05:32 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: nwctwx

bleh, forgot a tag. ;<


620 posted on 07/15/2005 8:05:41 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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