Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[nwctwx]

Maybe slightly, but it has pretty much bottomed out. It should start lifting out in the next 12 hours or so.

[jpsb]

I'm in Galveston county, San Leon.

[Battle Hymn of the Republic]

Excellent overhead surf in s. padre from Dennis

[NautiNurse]

Emily has an elliptical eye now...

277 
URNT12 KNHC 151741
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/17:25:00Z
B. 14 deg 26 min N
  071 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2840 m
D. 65  kt
E. 238 deg 013 nm
F. 333 deg 068 kt
G. 244 deg 007 nm
H.         969 mb
I.  14 C/ 3049 m
J.  16 C/ 3039 m
K.  10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E11/16/12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY        OB 29
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 14:56:20 Z
BANDING ALL QUADRANTS. INNERMOST CONVECTIVE RING STILL OPEN TO SOUTHEAST

[jpsb]

"Emily has an elliptical eye now... "

Doesn't that usually mean a turn is about to occur?

[jpsb]

no way that is s. padre, is it?

[nwctwx]

Again, I seriously doubt that trough sitting in TX right now will stay put until the storm gets near the GOM. My target zone for a U.S. hit remains Brownsville to Houston, with an outside shot of the storm making it as far north as LA.

[SouthTexas]

She is winking at us.

[jpsb]

"Again, I seriously doubt that trough sitting in TX "

I can keep you updated on local conditions and my barometer readings. (29.8)

[NautiNurse]

fyi: the Storm Floater which updates every 30 minutes also has little boxes at the top of the loop you can check, including Lat/Lon, Winds, Fronts, and Tropical Forecast Plot Points.

They add a lot more dimension to the loop...enjoy!

[nwctwx]

Where are you?

[jpsb]

cool, looks to be moving due west again. Kinda looping her way to the gulf. Hope she doesn't get too strong, a cat 2, is manageable a 4 or 5 is a not.

[nwctwx]

Elliptical eye is likely a product of continued shearing, and remnants of earlier dry air intrusion. As the storm continues to move west both should be less of a problem. There is an upper level low (AKA TUTT signature) to the NW of the system, which should slowly move away... and the system is getting further from S.A., which will cut down on the dry air.

The last few frames seem to indicate the storm is more on a due westerly course than earlier today, which could be the CDO restructuring itself, or a temporary wobble.

[jpsb]

I live in San Leon, a little town in Galveston county, my front yard is Galveston Bay.

[Willie Green]

I'm in Galveston county, San Leon.

Hmmmmmm... I have absolutely no idea where that is...
But it sounds like it's waaaaay outside my currently limited bar-hopping range...
I'll have to ask one of my brothers if they can chauffeur...
(One lives in the same development, 2~3 streets over...
the other is in a different development, but just a mile or so up the main road.)
Anyway, they've been here maybe 5~10 years, so I'm sure they know where you're at. (especially if there's beer involved.)

Ooooops! Correction: never heard of San Leon, but Galveston county has gotta be somewhere near Galveston. (Doh!) Well at least now we know that one of my brothers is gonna be driving!!! But so far, the farthest south that they've taken me has been to an Astro's game. (They whooped LA in the bottom of the 9th!)

[dc-zoo]

Great stuff. Thanks for the link.

[Dog Gone]

I'm not a meteorologist, of course, but I think a landfall east of Texas is highly unlikely. Most likely, looking at it today, this is a northern Mexico storm. Something is going to have to substantively change in order to affect the storm's path.

[rwfromkansas]

Looking at the core of the storm, it appears to be heading due west, well, well south of the track it should be following.

It may not hit the US or even Mexico if my eyes aren't deceiving me.

[shield]

Most likely, looking at it today, this is a northern Mexico storm.

My thoughts too...

[rwfromkansas]

Of course, it could also be moving due west due to the "heavy" part of the storm......the heaviest rain etc. being right now in the sw corner. That could be dragging it down to the due west movement. Once more convection fires all around, it may resume its wnw to nw movement.