Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[Bahbah]

A Cat4. I am getting that "here we go again" feeling, or, rather, here you guys go again, while we can only watch and hope for the best.

[dawn53]

Not looking good for Cayman.

Onyx,

What do you hear from your daughter?

[twin2]

bookmark

[dawn53]

Found this blog from Cayman on Wunderground, looks like a lot of people aren't going to stick around to see what happens.

Your conversations with your daughter that you were relaying to us as Ivan was coming ashore stick out in my mind. It must have been unbelievably frightening when the island was breached by the Sea.

What are her plans, will she evacuate?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CaymanMike/show.html

[lifacs]

She (onyx) said she would be gone for two weeks. She is moving right now. We will probably have to wait until she gets back to find out how her daughter faired.

[mhking]

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 18a
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on July 15, 2005

 
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily continues toward the central and
western Caribbean Sea...

 
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of Jamaica.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward to the
Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to
Port-au-Prince. 

At 8 am AST...1200 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Venezuela
and for Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba has been discontinued. 

 

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 am AST...1200z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 14.1 north... longitude 70.0 west or about 345 miles...
555 km... south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about 525
miles... 845 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. This makes Emily a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. However...satellite images suggest
that Emily may have weakened a little during the past few hours. A
reconnaissance plane will check the intensity shortly.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  952 mb...28.11 inches.

 
Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are
possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to
produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.  These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 
Repeating the 8 am AST position...14.1 N... 70.0 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 952 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

[NautiNurse]

Looks like she's heading due west the past few frames.

[numberonepal]

Whew, down to 952. It doesn't seem like the wind speeds are reflecting the drop in pressure. We'll have to wait until 11 to see.

[SouthTexas]

I have noticed over the past several years that when I know someone with the same name as a hurricane, it is usually bad. Hope it doesn't ring true this time, have a friend with a daughter named Emily.

[No Blue States]

She looks organized for an early morning hurricane.

Mexico can have this one please.

Weird weather here in the DFW, rain Gage has 1.7".
Fairly rare for July. 2 outflow boundaries clashed right over me yesterday and viola 50 mph gusts followed by a good soaker.

If I were on the coast my preparations would begin right about..now. If Emily hit Mexico I would be ready for the next one.

I remember one hurricane that went up the Rio Grande and stalled, houses were floating down the river and it looked like melted chocolate.

[SouthTexas]

Glad I'm not the only one with a warped sense of humor. ;)

[SouthTexas]

I think we had rain almost all over the state last night. A norther? Going to be almost chilly today, down to 95.

[dawn53]

Thanks for the info.

[texgal]

Not all of us want a storm - those of us very near or right on the Gulf could very well do without it! My homeowners insurance is over $800 per month after the 2001 storm that came through and I can't afford another huge increase.

[jpsb]

Yup looks that way to me too.

[NautiNurse]

Well, now the eye has popped back into view--and it appears to be a bit more north.

[jpsb]

I am looking here,

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
what are you looking at?

[NautiNurse]

Looking at the IR storm floater updated every 30 minutes.

[jpsb]

good catch, the eye does appearing to have moved north due on that graphic.

[NautiNurse]

Concentric eyewall, pressure up to 964, winds 131mph.

125
URNT12 KNHC 151217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/11:57:20Z
B. 14 deg 11 min N
070 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2815 m
D. 60 kt
E. 49 deg 031 nm
F. 121 deg 126 kt
G. 44 deg 010 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. CO/8/20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 11:54:30 Z