Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Max sustained winds up to 125 MPH now. This is going to be a helluva storm. I'm thinking it hits the Yucatan as a 4. Beyond that, who can say. Looks like rain coming to San Antonio sometime late next week in any case, I'd say.
Eye diameter is only 8nm...If it gets any smaller, they should just call it a waterspout...
Emily continues to intensify. Dvorak data T numbers at 00z were 6.0 from all agencies...corresponding to an intensity estimate of 115 kt. Aircraft reconnaissance data during the past couple of hours indicate that the pressure and winds are not far behind the satellite signature. The first fix at 2347z included a central pressure of 962 mb...down 12 mb from about six hours earlier...and a maximum 700 mb flight level wind of 100 kt in the northwestern quadrant. The pressure had fallen to 958 mb at 0130z with maximum flight level winds up to 125 kt in the northeastern quadrant... supporting the advisory intensity of 110 kt. Not much seems to be in the way of Emily maintaining major hurricane status...possibly reaching category four...during its path through the Caribbean Sea. The GFDL maintains a near-120 kt hurricane for the next three days...and while the GFDL curiously weakens Emily in the southern Gulf of Mexico...the SHIPS model forecasts a major hurricane beyond 72 hours...and the official forecast closely follows SHIPS late in the forecast period.
Although the hurricane took a slight jog to the left...or south...of the previous forecast track during the past few hours...an initial motion of 285/17 seems to have resumed. Model guidance is tightly clustered during the next three days on continuing this general motion. However...especially beyond that time...the overall guidance envelope has shifted quite significantly to the north. The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous track...by an increasing amount beyond 48 hours...but remains on the left side of the dynamical models.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/0300z 13.6n 67.5w 110 kt 12hr VT 15/1200z 14.4n 70.1w 115 kt 24hr VT 16/0000z 15.7n 73.6w 115 kt 36hr VT 16/1200z 17.0n 77.1w 115 kt 48hr VT 17/0000z 18.2n 80.2w 115 kt 72hr VT 18/0000z 20.5n 86.5w 115 kt 96hr VT 19/0000z 22.5n 91.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 20/0000z 24.5n 95.5w 100 kt
The storm is still developing. It's just a baby. Okay, it's a major hurricane already, but it's only ONE DAY OLD. We're pointing out major personality defects before it even says goo-goo.
I hear you--just discovered I have damage to my two year old metal roof from last weekend. Have a big wet patch in the ceiling. Damn.
Thank you for posting these updates. I think during this crazy season we're likely to be tracking at least two at once. It's both an interesting and a dangerous tropical season.
I didn't think you were hit that hard from Dennis. Better find that source of the leak and fix it. I just have a hunch, perhaps you do too, that hurricane season isn't over.
Me either--but the ceiling over the stairs is bulging and soft. Looks like only the latex paint is holding it together. Yikes!
My gut/amateur forecast is this one becomes a mini-Carla. Same path but slower winds, around 130-140MPH. It hits the Texas coast midway between Corpus and Houston.
Unfortunately for us, I have a feeling we'll be watching a real Carla clone come through in September.
Oh yea, next wave due in carb in a couple of days.
How many days out are we from landfall in TX?
6-7 days if it does come to Texas.
at least 6.
I was only about 6 or 7 during Carla. My dad was out of town and my mom didn't want to leave. We were in the country in Alvin and when we left I remember it was dark and water coming under the car doors. We had the dog and my mom left a window cracked for tornados. Killed my bird.
Have a question about the snow/hurricane connection. Does that only apply to Galveston or can we all expect one since it snowed along the whole Texas coast?
Galveston would be good......for Dallas. Rain all around us this evening, not a drop here!
Same age here during Carla, further south between Victoria and Corpus.
It is local lore in Galveston county, old timers claim it's true going all the way back to 1900 storm. I've seen snow 3 times, first time nothing of note (freak seabrook only snow), second time we got Alica, we will see what happens this time.
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