Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
And I can't spell even with spell check........ LOL!
978mb...
OUCH - broken ribs are a bummer. Hope they start feeling better soon.
Our power bill arrived this morning for June12-July12. I just about fainted. The past few days we have had some rain on the west side of Houston. It's amazing how just a bit of could cover can cool off the house.
Does anyone know which forecast models are the most reliable or have the best track record?
Knocking at Cat 2's door...
309
URNT12 KNHC 141359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/13:41:40Z
B. 12 deg 36 min N
063 deg 44 min W
C. NA mb 2903 m
D. 65 kt
E. 042 deg 047 nm
F. 162 deg 090 kt
G. 080 deg 010 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 6 C/ 3094 m
J. 15 C/ 3084 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0305A EMILY OB 09
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 13:36:20 Z
ITEM C ABOVE SHOULD READ 700MB 2903M
Upcoming advisory will be cat 2 given the pressure drops.
She sure looks like a Texas hurricane to me, maybe even a Matagorta/Galveston hurricane.
...Emily strengthening in the eastern Caribbean...now a category two hurricane...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a tropical storm watch from Punta Salinas westward to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. The government of Haiti has issued a tropical storm watch from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
At 11 am AST...the government of Trinidad has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of Cumana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 12.7 north... longitude 64.0 west or about 560 miles... 905 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of the Windward Islands...northern Venezuela...and the Netherlands Antilles...with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall over the Windward Islands will be decreasing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...12.7 N... 64.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
"Does anyone know which forecast models are the most reliable or have the best track record?"
I don't but was amazed at the accuracy of the NHC 3 day graphic as Dennis came in. If I'm not mistaken that forecast is an average of all the models.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/143255.shtml?3day
That was a great call by the NHC. Dennis took a lot more Cuba real estate than expected, but final landfall was made with excellent accuracy.
Dennis Forecast Archive Mash the 5-day Watch/Warn button
The Ukmet, which is one of the best models, was the worst performer on Dennis. But nothing can be worse than the Canadian model this morning, which doesn't even acknowledge the existence of Emily.
Well, the good news is that it may go far enough south to mostly miss Texas if it gets too strong.
The bad news is that if it isn't too strong, Texas will miss the rain except for the southern end because it has to be moving north or northwest into central TX for most of the state to get the rain.
I'm willing to skip the rain that Emily would bring. The scorching hot waters of the western Gulf practically guarantee that she'll be a bad cane.
The west Gulf does make the water temps in the east Gulf look like Lake Michigan in winter.
From the 11AM discussion: The minimum pressure fell by at least 13 mb over the last 8 hours.
sorry for all caps...
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005
EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN.
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90
KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS
BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN
PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85
KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS.
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE
WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF
INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 12.7N 64.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 100 KT
Big one.
I believe you enjoy inflicting pain upon our eyes--particularly when the data is already linked in the thread header without ALL CAPS.
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