The west Gulf does make the water temps in the east Gulf look like Lake Michigan in winter.
sorry for all caps...
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005
EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN.
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90
KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS
BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN
PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85
KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS.
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE
WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF
INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 12.7N 64.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 100 KT