Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Did that too growing up down there in the valley(boarded up for Gilbert all by myself as a 16 year old kid as my mom was sick and couldn't handle much) and with my first home here in Corpus with the threat we had with Bret in 1999. We just moved into a brand new house in May and I need to get my plywood and cut it. Good thing with this house is most of the windows are the same size, so I can use a template to cut most of my wood. Still a pain in the neck to say the least.
That's my guesstimate as well. Over the past thirty years, most of the hurricanes which have hit the Texas coast have swooped south of Cuba and the other nearby islands, grazed the Yucatan penninsula, then swung more northerly to smack Texas. This one's right on track so far.
Houston had a direct hit with Alicia in 1983. The track of Alicia was almost exactly the route of I-45, from the point where it dead-ends into Galveston Island on the coast, then up right smack through downtown Houston, even following the "kink" of I-45 as it turns more northerly after leaving downtown and heads off towards Dallas. It was as if Alicia was following the road signs.
Since then, Houston has not only had no direct hits, it hasn't even been swiped by the arm of any hurricane in the past 22 years -- all possible candidates have either swung way south or way north of Houston and missed it entirely. Houston has been the target of several tropical storms, though, most notably Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 which caused widespread flooding, including the flooding of below-ground floors of hospitals in the Medical Center area, knocking out power and requiring evacuations of patients.
Houston or Galveston would be best for Dallas....for the rain. Brownsville is too far west. We need rain!
< It was as if Alicia was following the road signs. >
Funny!
One of the worst paths it could take, over all that open water.
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 14, 2005
...Emily beginning to move away from the Windward Islands...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grenada.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is downgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the tropical storm warnings for Trinidad and
Tobago are discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla
Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of
Cumana.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and
Aruba.
A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the South
Coast of Hispaniola later this morning.
Interests elsewhere in the central Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 12.3 north... longitude 62.3 west or about 45 miles... 70
km... west-northwest of Grenada.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches across portions of the Windward Islands...northern
Venezuela...and the Netherlands Antilles...with possible isolated
amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...12.3 N... 62.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 90
mph. Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
Dog gone it, you were supposed to be among the pinged above.
Maybe Emily will locate Natalie.
Just and FYI. . . I won't be on the storm threads much until/unless it gets a lot closer.
I have a brother in the hospital and I'm seeking new and exciting job opportunities. Hopefully neither of those will be an issue by the time Emily gets close to the Guff.
I can imagine the bizarre headlines that would generate.
If the police down there can't find her, Emily looks ready and willing to help.
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 14, 2005
Observations from Grenada indicate that the center passed over the
island around 07z...at which time the observing site was reporting
westerly winds with a pressure of 993 mb.
After the rapid intensification episode observed yesterday
evening...Emily now appears to be strengthening at a more moderate
pace. This was suggested by central pressures from the last couple
of recon fixes between 04 and 06z. Another hurricane hunter plane
is scheduled to investigate the system around 12z. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern has become rather
symmetrical with fairly well-defined banding features. Upper-level
outflow is also well-defined...and vertical shear is not predicted
to become strong along the path of Emily. Moreover...the hurricane
will be moving over waters of increasingly high oceanic heat
content for the next couple of days. Thus...strengthening seems
inevitable. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory is
similar to the previous one...and...as noted earlier...could be
conservative.
Based on the recon fixes and the Grenada obs...the motion now
appears to be west-northwestward...285/16. My track forecast
reasoning is basically unchanged from that of the previous advisory
package. Dynamical models maintain a large 500 mb ridge to the
north of Emily through the forecast period. This should force a
continued west-northwestward motion. Track prediction models
remain in fairly good agreement on the direction of motion but
differ on speed. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one but somewhat faster. Some models... such as the GFDL
and GFS...indicate an even faster motion.
Forecaster Pasch
The models currently run this storm anywhere from the west tip of Cuba (in which case TX/LA should look out) down south to Belize. But stay tuned...
A co-worker of mine is leaving for Aruba on Saturday to meet her husband for her R&R. She's watching the hurrican tracking like a hawk.
She also said a couple of weeks ago "I read that Aruba never gets hurricans, so at least I don't have to worry about that."
My 'e' key is sticking.
The good news is...Florida isn't in the predicted path.
Prayers for oyour brother and good luck in your search :)
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