Don't get too comfortable yet, LOL! Here's the Historical Map of storms in same place as Emily during this time of year.
Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Looks like the East Coast may be spared this one, too, and even Florida if it holds the center of the cone. I don't give much stock to projections beyond a couple of days, though, except that if I see the cone approaching SE VA in any way, I'm starting preparations.
Don't get too comfortable yet, LOL! Here's the Historical Map of storms in same place as Emily during this time of year.
Please add me to your weather ping list.
The five-day track has shifted SOUTH of Cuba!? Oh, joy. That's fun.
The historical map does not, however, show the massive high pressure system over the Atlantic that may actually help steer Emily down toward the Yucatan Peninsula (God help them). Unless the high moves off, Emily is not going to follow the historical tracks.
The local weathermen this morning were all suggesting that Emily will hit the island of Hispanola and disintegrate. While that is a possibility, it certainly is far from a certainty and I sure wouldn't predict it.
Texas may finally get some rain....... the hard way.
Thank goodness! I was actually just kidding.
I was watching this link last night.
It takes a while to load, but it does give great graphics to the weather movements of the entire hemisphere.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+48+-update+3600
Said the same thing yesterday noon in post #87.
Is FR really slow for anyone else?
FR is crawling for me. Timed out several times. Something's wrong.
Not only that but, why would we want to try and alter nature to this extent? It's like forcing 75°F sunny weather out of nature for any place below the Canadian border for 365 days a year.
Hurricanes have always been and will always be and part of nature.
Oh please put me on your weather list. I want to stay on the ping list Nauti and Howlin have, too.
bttt
Good mornin' from Mobile! Just arrived home. Yesterday it took me 3.5 hours to go from south of B'ham to Montgomery...bumper to bumper, 6 mph. I have another sister in Montgomery, so stayed there for the night and left for Mobile early this a.m.
Keepin' an eye on Emily, but if kitty's going to Florence again, someone else will have to take her. I'm done evacuating....well, at least til the next big one. I blame it on having to take care of kitty, but I'm beginning to suspect I'm a big wuss in the hurricane category.
I hope he's ok. He's one of the first I thought of.
PS: Just noticed my leftover tag line.
Remind me to duplicate it next time Mobile is targeted.
That is terrible!! Sometimes I wonder what good insurance even is. Most of the people flooded out in Atlanta will have no coverage unless they had "flood" insurance.
Bump for sunshine
...Emily strengthening...hurricane watches issued in the Windward Islands...
At 11 am AST...1500z...hurricane watches have been issued for Barbados...Grenada...The Grenadines...St. Vincent...and St. Lucia...by the appropriate governments. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 36 hours.
At 11 am AST...the government of Trinidad has issued a tropical storm watch for the island of Tobago. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 11.0 north... longitude 51.3 west or about 575 miles... 925 km... east-southeast of Barbados.
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph ...32 km/hr. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected...and Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles ... 85 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...11.0 N... 51.3 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
Emily is my niece's name.
I hope this storm is like her in her sweet moods.
If it's anything like when she's in a snit, WATCH OUT!
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