Huh? herding Cats? lol
Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Take the compliments! Running a live thread is not as easy as it looks; it's hard work and like herding cats.
Is #5 that bad boy we saw coming off of Africa a week or so ago?
FNC just mentioned the giant Crawdad wave behind Emily. It's
still looking like it has a head, legs, and claws.
Yes, it's the same wave. Still not sure what happens with it... should be a named storm at some point in the next 12-24 hours though. Looks like it will try to go north of the Islands, which would make it a FL-NC threat (if any at all). Gotta see what Dennis does. If he sits in the OH valley, we should see a trough off the east coast, which is evident in the following image today:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif
As long as that stays there, this will recurve. However, models suggest that it will move out before the storm gets closer to the U.S.
Off to do some real-world things for a bit, but will check in later today. :)
How accurate were they this time?
Joe Bastardi (Accuweather) predicted a New Orleans landfall for Dennis. nwctwx was a lot closer on his prediction.
nwctwx posted last night that so far, Emily looks like a Florida east coast event if it goes north of the islands, another Gulf of Mexico storm if it stays south of them. So far, most of the models seem to push it south, though one (GFDL) has it crossing Haiti (Link).
I've got to go with the Freeper opinion here, given the two track records. And that means I'll be watching this thing very closely.
Friends of ours had a family reunion at a house on the beach in Topsail back on the last week of August 1996 through Labor Day (September 2nd). On September 6th, Hurricane Fran rolled through. The house they stayed in was gone (nothing but the pylons) less than one week after they left town. How's THAT for timing?
Good timing for them. With my luck, I'd be at the house when it came through (but not for long, evidently).
thanks
Quickly, the models do take it south of the Islands... but, given the fact that it is developing so far out, I would not be surprised to see it come north over the coming days... that's why I think it may go north of them at this time. Like I said last night, if it does go south, more of a GOM threat (again).
It's pretty far south in latitude right now though, so it may be difficult to get it north of the islands. I haven't had enough time to give things more than a cursory glance, because I neglected some other things tracking Dennis... and, trying to catch up. ;)
Another image showing the trough off the E Coast.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_ir_loop.gif
I'll be back this evening, will look things over more carefully and report back.
I've always thought that Franklin was a very gay name for a storm. I hereby dub TD6 "Crawdad", and shall refer to it that way from now on.
Anecdotal, non-scientific guesstimate here:
The key are the French islands. It the storm goes north of Guadaloupe it'll hit the bumper islands (St. Marteen, BVI, USVI) and be sent off towards NE Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and the eastern seaboard of the mainland US.
If it goes between Guadaloupe and Martinique, over Dominica, it WILL hit Puerto Rico from the southeast and if it isn't weakened by the high mountains of Puerto Rico, it'll go on westward south or across Hispaniola, Cuba and into the Gulf.
Anything south of Martinique stays in the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf.
Sorry bout your home. I flew in there with the National Guard and it was not fun at all. That's why I keep banging away at the safe home issue to anyone who'll hear.
I'm afraid you're right.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
