Anecdotal, non-scientific guesstimate here:
The key are the French islands. It the storm goes north of Guadaloupe it'll hit the bumper islands (St. Marteen, BVI, USVI) and be sent off towards NE Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and the eastern seaboard of the mainland US.
If it goes between Guadaloupe and Martinique, over Dominica, it WILL hit Puerto Rico from the southeast and if it isn't weakened by the high mountains of Puerto Rico, it'll go on westward south or across Hispaniola, Cuba and into the Gulf.
Anything south of Martinique stays in the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf.
Local meteorologist Dr. Jose Diaz-Arias is calling it a TS within the next 24 hours. Radio report.