Posted on 06/23/2005 6:11:55 PM PDT by quidnunc
The eurozone is sliding towards a Japanese-style "liquidity trap" and may have trouble holding monetary union together unless the EU authorities take prompt action, according to a report yesterday by HSBC.
The bank warned that eurozone GDP growth was likely to "grind to a halt" as exports weaken in the second half. "The dangers of a liquidity trap are rising in the region," it said.
"Germany is perilously close to deflation. We believe it is only a question of time before there are generalised price falls in the country. This will in turn raise more questions about the rules governing EMU and the sustainability of the single currency itself."
The bank said the Netherlands and Italy were also in danger.
Italy was in "dire straits" after a "collapse" in productivity and negative growth for five out of the past nine quarters. "Italy has completely failed to adapt to the rigours of the fixed exchange rate," it said
HSBC forecast 1.1pc eurozone growth in 2005, but warned that the bloc may tip into recession as the global trade cycle turns down. Germany's exports to China are already falling.
The warnings come as fresh data showed a 3.9pc fall in Italian retail sales in April, the worst monthly drop since records began.
HSBC called on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates now from 2pc to 1.5pc before the downturn in the eurozone becomes unstoppable.
The dreaded term "liquidity trap" was used by economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s when traumatised consumers and investors refused to spend, pushing prices ever lower.
-snip-
(Excerpt) Read more at money.telegraph.co.uk ...
Creating one job in the last 25 years might help.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
That sentence just made me laugh. What other outcome was possible. Italy is... well, Italy.
Look at that, the Euro has been stronger over the last 4 years and their economies suck. Whadda ya say Paul? Maybe they need to "debauch" the Euro?
Is it like Neil Armstrong's "One small step for Man" which should have been "One small step for a man"?
*BUMP* !
Ahhhh....Ambrose Evans-Pritchard...brings back fond memories of his Clinton stories!
Euro'zoned'!
So, what are the chances of an American-style revolution in Europe to get rid of the leech socialists?
A) 0.0000000001%?
B)0.000000000000000000000000001%
C)0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%?
If "C," explain your answer in less than three words or more than 25,000 words.
in the 1980s teh EU grew at a rate approximately the same as the US 3.5% annually.
In the 1990s their growth was about 1-2% annually
Now they are at 0%
take a guess where this will lead in the future
And the Germans wish they had stayed with their beloved Mark -- and Italians with thier beloved Lira.
Les, Les Nessman, is that really you?
I hear faintly the echoes of Marlene Dietrich at the Blue Angel...
The bank said the Netherlands and Italy were also in danger.
Italy was in "dire straits" after a "collapse" in productivity and negative growth for five out of the past nine quarters. ...
Unbelievable.
HSBC forecast 1.1pc eurozone growth in 2005
And here in the U.S., the economy is expanding at what, a 4% rate? Unemployment applications are virtually tied with the rate of that during what our nonpartisan press termed the economically explosive Clinton presidency...
...but warned that the bloc may tip into recession...Germany's exports to China are already falling. The warnings come as fresh data showed a 3.9pc fall in Italian retail sales in April, the worst monthly drop since records began.[emphasis added]
WooF.
HSBC called on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates now... The ECB's one-size-fits-all interest rate, stuck at 2pc as the bank still struggles to cool property booms in Spain, Greece, Ireland, and parts of France, is effectively driving Germany - and Holland - deeper into slump.
The weather is warm in Italy. It has the Mediterranean lapping its banks. Why isn't its real estate booming?
Peter Wandesforde, HSBC's chief European economist, said the weaker euro had helped put off the day of reckoning. "We're not looking at the doomsday scenario quite yet: but it is a question of when, not if," he said.
The opening paragraph stated that it is only a matter of time before deflation occurs; this paragraph quotes an assertion that the Euro (with its interest obligations, the cause of the crisis) has only delayed the inevitable deflationary crisis (and as such, it is both the cause and the delay of the crisis). Fascinating stuff. And frightening, too.
Yep, they kept their interest rates too high, in my opinion to help establish the Euro as a reserve currency.
As idle macroeconomic speculation I wonder what declining/aging populations might have to do with this deflation/depression combination. Japan was ahead of the curve in collapsing fertility and rapid aging and ahead in deflation, and now much of W. Europe might follow them. I've never given any thought to why that might theoretically happen, but it is an interesting coincidence. Italy is probably the worst demographic country in Europe, so if there is anything to it they should feel deflation/depression first and feel it worst.
LOL... Good one :)
That means lower tax revenues. What happens to a welfare state when it can't pay all the welfare?
Do the old folks get pension cuts? Students lose free education? Unemployment insurance cuts? Step right up folks; who's ready to volunteer to take less money? What, you are all going to fight to the death to preserve your cut of the pie?
Will they (the Germans) solve it the way they did last time this happened? Or will they just collapse into a second-world existence, like a South American country?
Looks like the first official act of the EU was to cause a depression.
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