McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[hellinahandcart]

Hold your nose and vote, friends.

Nope.

[Zacs Mom]

[Primetimedonna]

I'd write my own name in first.


What's your name......you'd have my vote too!!

[doug from upland]

I can not decide who would be worse.
===============================================

Maybe Vince Foster could help you decide if he were alive. Maybe Jim McDougal could help you decide if he were still alive. Maybe Billy Dale could help you decide. Maybe Juanita Broaddrick could help you decide.

I don't want McCain to win the nomination, but if he is nominated and whining people stay home because they didn't get their way, a woman will attain power who will change this nation forever. This attitude is disgusting. The three greatest threats to our nation are Islamic terror, the ChiComs, and Hillary Clinton. People better understand that and stop whining.

[goodnesswins]

ANYONE WOULD TROUNCE HILLARY!

[Brilliant]

seems like it would be a pyrric victory.

[cvq3842]

Rush had a good take on this yesterday. There seems to be a lot of MSM touting of McCain as "the Republican Democrats love," but does ANYONE think the lovbe affair would survive for two seconds after he received the Republican nod?

I would not want either McCain or Clinton as President. I fear McCain would go third party or accept the VP spot from Clinton.

I also wish he would switch to the Democrat party.

Then the MSM would have to choose which Democrat to shower praise over.

The MSM wants the Republicans to take the bait and nominate McCain, or for McCain to wreck the party.

I would hope he cares for his country more than to hand the election to the Dems. But i am fearful.

[areafiftyone]

I DO NOT want Hillary Clinton in charge of our Military or Bubba roaming around the White House again! I don't think it will come to this but I will hold my nose and (YUCK!) vote for McCain.

[Cyclopean Squid]

Zogby's polling sample:

[hellinahandcart]

First of all, I don't believe the poll.

Second of all, in the (extremely) unlikely event that McCain survived the primary, it would be a clear signal that the United States was going swiftly to hell anyway, so voting *at all* would be utterly pointless.

[FreePaul]

I don't approve of President Bush's performance in a lot of areas. Although I have not been polled I would probably be among those who give him a low job approval rating. I don't know what questions are asked to arrive at poll results but answers to them are what really counts. When I compare Bush with anyone else on the national scene he comes out ahead. I can't think of many who should even have a positive number for their approval rating. The danger factor of all Democrats and a whole lot of Republicans would keep me from even considering them.

[b4its2late]

They'll probably run as a team.

[cvq3842]

It is a problem. Although it's somewhat liberating to not have the VP breathing down the President's neck, trying to walk the tightrope between being loyal and being his own person, as has happened in the past.

Anyone close to Bush would be savaged as a lapdog anyway.

But there should be some succession planning . . .

[Tulsa Ramjet]

What is the word other Republicans that are going to seek the nomination? I heard Virginia's George Allen was one.

[Blood of Tyrants]

They are referring to the 'Rat primary, aren't they?

[MeanWestTexan]

McCain, as disgusting as he is, is a moderate with relatively good military betn, not a extreme liberal who hates people in uniform.

That said, McCain has a lot of baggage (Keating 5, anyone?) that the liberals are just sitting on in hopes the Republicans pick someone "electable," instead of someone they actually like.

[The Old Hoosier]

This proves Hillary! will win.

[rhombus]

Hold your nose and vote, friends.

Nope.

Maybe another Ross Perot will come along and you can help seal things for Her Hilliaryness. Of course it's an 8 year gamble but the last time we had the Clintons we ended up winning the House, the Presidency and the Senate. Maybe it makes sense. ;-)

[cvq3842]

lobve = love