Posted on 06/21/2005 4:49:49 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Mason-Dixon Poll shows Nelson leads Harris in race for U.S. Senate
By WPTV staff
June 20, 2005
Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is an early re-election favorite for 2006, as he currently holds a sizeable over advantage over just-announced Republican challenger Katherine Harris. Statewide, 53% of voters currently support Nelson, while 36% back Harris and 11% are undecided.
Nelson is running very strong among Democratic voters, topping Harris by an overwhelming 86%-8% margin. Nelson also leads among independents 54%-27%, while Harris is ahead among Republicans 64%-17%.
Nelson’s solid base among Democrats is also evident by his strength in South Florida (60%-29%) and African-American voters (89%-3%). He also leads in the remaining three regions of the state – including Republican-leaning North Florida (48%-37%) and Central Florida (53%-34%).
At present, the key to the race is that Harris remains a polarizing figure with Florida voters. Nelson, on the other hand, appears to be carrying little political baggage. Statewide, 44% have a favorable opinion of Nelson and only 10% have an unfavorable view. Voters are split on Harris, with almost as many having an unfavorable opinion of her (30%) as having a favorable opinion (32%).
Poll ping!
That may be true now,but anybody who thinks the wooden astronaut will be re elected is smoking crack. The Sunshine state will close another loop in 2006.
I certainly hope so, but Mason Dixon is the gold standard in State polls, and it shows that we have a LOT of work to do.
Good post, thanks. I think we both hold M/D in high regard. Good news for the GOP - incumbent Nelson is under 55%. Bad news for the GOP - Harris can't even (at this point) carry northern FL. And I'm shocked that Nelson only has a 10% unfavorable rating! Although the GOP will undoubtedly bump that number up considerably, he's definitely got an advantage over Katherine Harris there.
who else is running for this seat or will Harris be unopposed
FL Att. General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher have both been mentioned as interested in this race, but I don't believe either one has declared his intentions. Their names also pop up to replace Jeb.
And at least initially both men poll better vs. Nelson than Harris does.
I had heard that Mark Foley was thinking about it, but I haven't heard anything about it lately.
Didnt i see a poll not long ago having one of those guys barely beating nelson in a hypothetical?
"who else is running for this seat or will Harris be unopposed"
In addition to the other people Coop mentioned, House Speaker Allan Bense has also had his name floated.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1425041/posts
IMHO, Harris is not the canadidate to go up against Nelson.
I'd choose Tom Gallagher. Harris has a "history" that's still a little too fresh in the minds of the Dems, and they'll be out to get her.
She won her House seat, but that was with folks from her area, statewide, I don't think she'll have the appeal.
Crist will be Governor, Gallagher should be the next senator.
Like this doesn't happen in every single election.
(steely)
The Speaker of the Florida House is pondering a run (I can't remember his name), he's very popular, and he could defeat Nelson. I read last week that Jeb Bush and President Bush have sent signals to Harris that they don't want her to run. She was only elected to the House in 02, and she is still a very polarizing figure in the Sunshine State. What's her rush, I think she should sit this one out and make a name for herself in the House
The most recent Strategic Vision poll had Crist leading Nelson by 2 points, and Tom Gallagher leading Nelson by 4 points. That same poll had Nelson with a 6-point lead over Harris.
I agree
Harris should have just stayed in the House
this could be a loss that definitely SHOULD have been a clear win for us
For the past 2 or 3 cycles, Mason-Dixon has been the most favorable poll to Republicans, and not coincidentally, the most accurate over that same time period.
"The most recent Strategic Vision poll had Crist leading Nelson by 2 points, and Tom Gallagher leading Nelson by 4 points. That same poll had Nelson with a 6-point lead over Harris.
"
yeah that sounds right now that you mention it
Harris should just sit this one out then
I have a feeling that she will not run, because if she does she will lose the nomination fight.
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