2% of the base wil vote for Clinton in protest. 2% of the base will vote for a 3d party candidate in protest. 50% of the base will stay home. The GOP candidates for Senate, Congress and local offices will be the losers. The last election proved that turnout is important.
I think if you get a real 3d party candidate who has a pro-constitution free enterprise program, GOP candidates will endorse him and if anything, you will get a positive impact on the legislative races.
The good news is that the only kind of third party candidate who is likely to have an impact would be a serious well funded person with a strong national agenda that has broad appeal.
I don't think that is very difficult to do--the borders are clearly an opportunity issue; so is the budget. The American people clearly recognize that it was not white little old ladies that ran airplanes into the WTC towers on September 11--a clear understandable definition of the enemy and a policy to defend America is another opportunity issue.
The two parties do not want to address any of these issues directly. We have reached the point where there are a number of issues the mainstream parties won't talk about because the parties are in agreement and the American people are on the other side. So there is a real opportunity for a third party candidate.
I don't see a Republican candidate who is able to take any of these issues to the people.
On the other hand, most of the posters here have their heads in the sand--Mrs. Clinton is ahead because she is taking positions on national issues that more than 50% of the voters agree with. So when you line her up against wets like Ms. Rice or the lady about whom this topic got started, Sen. Hutchinson, Mrs. Clinton is going to win going away.