Strategic Vision Poll June 9-13: FL Senate, FL Governor, President

Strategic Vision ^ | 6/15/2005 | Strategic Vision

[JohnnyZ]

Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 registered voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted June 9 - 13, 2005. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

11. Do you approve or disapprove of Lt. Governor Toni Jennings' job performance? Approve 50% Disapprove 22% Undecided 28%

12. Do you approve or disapprove of Attorney General Charlie Crist's job performance? Approve 55% Disapprove 36% Undecided 9%

13. Do you approve or disapprove of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher's job performance? Approve 55% Disapprove 32% Undecided 13%

14. Do you approve or disapprove of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson's job performance? Approve 48% Disapprove 18% Undecided 34%

15. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson's job performance? Approve 46% Disapprove 40% Undecided 14%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mel Martinez's job performance? Approve 48% Disapprove 39% Undecided 13%

18. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006? (Republicans only) Charlie Crist 37% Tom Gallagher 34% Toni Jennings 12% Undecided 17%

19. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006? (Republicans only; Jennings omitted) Charlie Crist 40% Tom Gallagher 38% Undecided 22%

20. Who is your first choice for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2006? (Democrats only) Jim Davis 23% Scott Maddox 20% Rod Smith 14% Undecided 43%

21. If the election for Governor were between Charlie Crist, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support? Charlie Crist 46% Jim Davis 32% Undecided 22%

22. If the election for Governor were between Tom Gallagher, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support? Tom Gallagher 47% Jim Davis 30% Undecided 23%

23. If the election for Governor were between Toni Jennings, the Republican and Jim Davis, the Democrat, whom would you support? Toni Jennings 38% Jim Davis 27% Undecided 35%

32. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican? Bill Nelson 48% Katherine Harris 42% Undecided 10%

33. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Charlie Crist, the Republican? Bill Nelson 45% Charlie Crist 47% Undecided 8%

34. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican? Bill Nelson 44% Tom Gallagher 48% Undecided 8%

[JohnnyZ]

Just posted the highlights. Harris wins the primary easily, but struggles against Nelson, who would likely lose to either Crist or Gallagher, who are neck-and-neck in the governor's race.

[Yknot]

I wouln't vote for Harris because she is tainted by speculation and innuendo from the 2000 election. Regardless if she did or did not do anything unethical, the perception that she may have or could have would haunt her in Congress.

If she cares more about the Republican party and less about her own personal needs and desires, she would stay out of the Senate race, which would give either Crist or Gallagher a better chance of winning the seat.

[clintonh8r]

I think Nelson is vulnerable. He's an embarrassment and basically an empty suit. I must say, I don't have a whole lot more respect for Martinez. I wish Jeb would change his mind and run against Nelson.

[clintonh8r]

I wouldn't vote for Harris because she is tainted by speculation and innuendo from the 2000 election

So you wouldn't vote for any Republican who has been the subject of speculation and innuendo? She did her job according to the constitution of the state of Florida. What Harris did or didn't do as Secretary of State would have no bearing on her effectiveness as a senator.

[JohnnyZ]

I think Harris's numbers will improve once she gets back out on the statewide campaign trail. Some people -- not just liberals either -- are clearly turned off by her but the same was the case with Hillary in New York and she was able to work that off.

Still, it would be a lot easier if Crist and Gallagher were our standardbearers for the two races.

[Humal]

Very interesting, JohnnyZ. This surprises me that Tom Gallagher would beat Bill Nelson. I was under the impression that Nelson couldn't be beaten.

Are you familiar with this web site? http://www.sayfiereview.com/

[dawn53]

I'm making my prediction right now. Charlie Crist will be the next governor of Florida.

[JohnnyZ]

yes

[aynrandfreak]

I like Harris, but she was the victim of a smear campaign that obviously has affected some. I want to win the seat more than I want Harris to be the nominee. She should withdraw, and Gallahger should run. Florida continues moving right like the rest of the South. Nelson in for another six years would be a disaster.

[JohnnyZ]

I concur on the Crist call -- I think he'll have the edge in the primary because he's more closely associated with the GOP activist base, as I understand it.

[clintonh8r]

Harris can beat Nelson. Her numbers are in good shape given that most people only know her from the 2000 election recount. She will be able to beat Nelson. Just getting an R in the seat isn't enough. As an example, I cite our own Mel Martinez's lackluster perdormance to date.

[SolidSupplySide]

I wouln't vote for Harris because she is tainted by speculation and innuendo from the 2000 election. Regardless if she did or did not do anything unethical, the perception that she may have or could have would haunt her in Congress.

I'm curious. Would you advocate closing the prison camp at Gitmo because it is tainted by speculation and innuendo? Would you close it even if the marines haven't done anything unethical simply due to the perception that they may have haunts the US?

[aynrandfreak]

Nelson said he would fillibuster any attempt to even consider drilling offshore on any coast. I don't want just any R in there either, and Martinez may still come around. If she can win, she's an ideal choice, but sometimes these early numbers move around some during the campaign, but then end up about where they started on election day.

[republicanwizard]

Thanks Johnny.

[dangus]

Nelson is a liberal. 'Nuff said. The Deep South is waking up to the fact that hey have been electing noting but Bella Abzug clones for the last 60 years.

[jmaroneps37]

32. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican? Bill Nelson 48% Katherine Harris 42% Undecided 10%
MAJOR NELSON UP ONLY 6 ON A CANDIDATE THAT ANNOUNCED JUST LAST WEEK, NOT GOOD FOR THE RATS

33. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Charlie Crist, the Republican? Bill Nelson 45% Charlie Crist 47% Undecided 8% THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO GO BUT HARRIS WILL WIN THE PRIMARY

34. If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Tom Gallagher, the Republican? Bill Nelson 44% Tom Gallagher 48% Undecided 8% WE'VE BEEN THROUGH THIS ALREADY. GALLAGHER IS PRO CHOICE AND CAN'T/WON'T WIN A PRIMARY. THIS IS WHY HE PULLED OUT OF THE RACE SIX YEARS AGO WHEN MCCULLOM RAN AND LOST TO NELSON.

[JohnnyZ]

GALLAGHER IS PRO CHOICE AND CAN'T/WON'T WIN A PRIMARY

Is he pro-choice for real and does he admit it or does he obfuscate?

[GOPGuide]

These numbers are AWFUL for Nelson.

Nelson is under 50% and his opponent is only 6 points behind a full 18 months before the election.

How accurate was Strategic vision in 04?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"How accurate was Strategic Vision in 04?"

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My recollection is that it was pretty good in state polls, although not as good as Mason-Dixon. Does anybody have stats on the 2004 polling companies?

[Dales]

Might as well stick with apples-to-apples, since a polling company might in theory be better in one state than they are in another. President Bush won Florida by 5 points. The last SV poll, finished on October 31, showed the President with a 4 point lead. Their two previous ones showed another 4 point lead on Oct. 27th and a 2 point lead on the 24th.

Given the margin of error on the polls, and given that even their last one had 4% undecided, that's about as close to perfect as you can get.

Strategic Vision did really well in Florida. Rasmussen also nailed it, getting the 5 point final margin on the nose with his 10/27 release (his last of the year for the state).

And just looking up one other state for the hell of it, the last SV poll for Georgia showed a 14 point Bush lead. He won by 17.