Posted on 06/15/2005 9:15:52 AM PDT by kendu
A persuasive new theory explains why Kerry beat Bush in Election Day exit polls. Just don't expect those still crying "fraud" to believe it.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/06/15/exit_polls/index_np.html
But a clear consensus among experienced pollsters is finally emerging on what happened with the exits. Last month, at an annual conference of opinion pollsters in Miami Beach, Warren Mitofsky, the veteran pollster who conducted the exit poll for the networks, offered a detailed and convincing explanation of what went wrong with the polls. The reason the exits were off, Mitofsky said, is that interviewers assigned to talk to voters as they left the polls appeared to be slightly more inclined to seek out Kerry voters than Bush voters. Kerry voters were overrepresented in the poll by a small margin, which is why everyone thought that Kerry was going to win. The underlying error, Mitofsky's firm said in a report this January, is "likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters."
There's another interesting wrinkle in the exit poll discussion. During the past several months, some of the early "fraudsters" -- an initially derogatory term that some in the election-was-stolen camp have embraced -- who once suspected that the exit polls pointed to election fraud, have begun to change their minds. One of these is Bruce O'Dell, a computer engineer in Minneapolis and one of the founders of US Count Votes, the group that has been leading the charge to show that exit polls prove Kerry won. After initially signing on with this view, O'Dell now thinks it's impossible to say whether the exit polls suggest that Bush stole the election. O'Dell also thinks Mitofsky's explanation -- that Kerry voters were overrepresented in the poll -- is plausible.
You're joking, right?
I aint signing up for Salon just to read it. Anyone want to give me the jist?
"May I be the first to say 'Mr. President'?" Bob Shrum, one of the John Kerry's chief campaign advisors, beamed to the senator shortly before the East Coast polls closed on Election Day 2004. Shrum's excitement, if premature, was understandable. Kerry's aides realized the race would be close, but during much of Election Day they were buoyed by positive exit poll results flowing out of key states -- Ohio, critically -- showing their man headed for a win. It wasn't only Kerry's people who were excited by the exits. The poll numbers, which weren't officially released during the vote, but which floated around online as freely as Paris Hilton's sex video, seduced just about everybody on the left into thinking a new day had dawned.
In the end, of course, Ohio went red and liberals were blue. But even before Kerry offered his concession, some on the left began pointing to the exit polls as proof that George W. Bush stole the election. To this day, they claim that the exit polls -- which are compiled through interviews with voters just after they've cast their ballots -- tell us that most Americans attempted to vote for John Kerry. What is off, they say, is the official vote count, corrupted by paperless electronic machines and other methods of chicanery.
I aint signing up for Salon just to read it. Anyone want to give me the gist?
They don't have time to chat with hippies toting clipboards.
Thanks, but that much I was able to read.
Most Republicans run the other way when they see anyone with a clipboard. We know they're either asking for money or spouting leftist crap.
No kidding. Kerry won the exit poll because more people who voted for Kerry were polled. A 5 year old could tell you that, and it wouldn't take 7 or 8 months. I'll wait until a real news source carries it. I'm not paying to read it at Salon
Good grief, their spinning is making me dizzy.
Some dweeb approached me on election day...I shook my head and walked right past him.
Exit poll results were just one item in a long bill of election-fraud particulars that folks began passing around in the aftermath of the election. But over the past seven months, the exits have proved more enduring to the election-was-stolen movement than many of the other early indicators of fraud. Lefty bastions like Democratic Underground are aflame with discussions purporting to prove how the exits show Bush didn't really win.
But a clear consensus among experienced pollsters is finally emerging on what happened with the exits. Last month, at an annual conference of opinion pollsters in Miami Beach, Warren Mitofsky, the veteran pollster who conducted the exit poll for the networks, offered a detailed and convincing explanation of what went wrong with the polls. The reason the exits were off, Mitofsky said, is that interviewers assigned to talk to voters as they left the polls appeared to be slightly more inclined to seek out Kerry voters than Bush voters. Kerry voters were overrepresented in the poll by a small margin, which is why everyone thought that Kerry was going to win. The underlying error, Mitofsky's firm said in a report this January, is "likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters."
I watched that paragon of intellectual superiority, Juan Williams, suggest that maybe the exit polls were right and the actual election results were wrong.
Lots of R voters sent in absentee ballots too. Since we were WORKING that day.
Try www.BugMeNot.com.
Possibly because Republicans, who've never done an honest day's work in their lives, have day jobs on election day, all the lay-abouts have time to chat with pollsters.
That was my immediate take, on Nov. 3.
My understanding is that when the exit poll results were normalized to match the demographics of the actual turnout, that they were pretty much spot-on. Over-sampling of certain population subsets led to the innacurate early results.
Well, I voted early and told the exit pollster that I voted for Kerry.
If the polls showed Kerry winning it might motivate lazy Bush voters to show up.
Also, some Kerry voters might get over confident and stay home.
Always lie to pollsters.
The only person I spoke to were the two or three people on line at the front desk. I saw that they had their cards out and ready. I stopped and told the first one I made eye contact with, "This line's for information. If you have your card and know your district, you can just walk in there." (She smiled and then all three walked into the next room. My civic duty was done.)
TS
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