Santorum Extremely Vulnerable

Political Wire ^ | 6-08-05 | Chris Bower

[UCAL]

In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:

>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6

Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44

Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46

Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.

The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.

Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.

Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:

Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51

Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.

[UCAL]

I'm just interested in the race. I live in Connecticut so I'm not in the position to help or hurt him. I want him to win just as I hope that every Republican wins.

[massadvj]

I live in Pennsylvania. Santorum is despised by the hard right for screwing us in the Toomey/Specter race. I doubt too many will vote against him, but this is an off-year election. There won't be anything to motivate us to go to the polls unless Lynn Swann or another Rep looks to be competitive against Rendell. Casey is about as conservative as Santorum, so that will tend to take some of the sting out of a Santorum loss.

I doubt that any Republican can win a statewide race in Pennsylvania right now. The Rendell machine can manufacture as many votes as they need out of Philadelphia. They actually counted more votes this last election than they have in population, and went 90/10 Kerry. The same shenanigans will no doubt be pulled this time around.

[JohnnyZ]

Casey is about as conservative as Santorum

Um, no.

I doubt that any Republican can win a statewide race in Pennsylvania right now.

You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last Republican statewide win.

[oldironsides]

Santorum is expected to lose this race by many Republican estimates. Casey is so very popular with everyone. He is pro life like his father. Pennsylvania will vote for Casey.
Santorum forgot where he came and who put him where he is today. His attempt to keep token real estate in Pa and
issues with schooling his children will come up in the race.
I will vote Santorum. I am not hopeful for his chances against Casey.

[JohnnyZ]

We'll see how things go when Casey's negatives are driven up a bit. There's a long way to go until the election and Casey's never had a tough general election as far as I know. We'll see how things go.

[Zack Nguyen]

What has Brownback done to anger Republicans lately?

[COEXERJ145]

This cannibalism of one's own among social conservatives is just terrible.

Typical mentality of many on Free Republic. They'll throw a Republican overboard for any reason, even if they agree with the candidate on 90% of the other issues. My personal favorites are the one who plan to vote for a Democrat (even one to the left of Howard Dean) in order to "show the Republicans". Either they're stupid, naive, or are not conservatives at all if they'd vote for a liberal Democrat just because the Republican doesn't agree with them 100%.

[cynicom]

Going to vote against Santorum this time.

I know the old saying, we will get a worse person etc etc...

Does not matter any more. This idiot like Bush takes conservatives for granted. When they lose they emit the usual wail, "Its all their fault, they didn't vote for me".

[JohnnyZ]

It IS your fault

[HamiltonJay]

Santorum is safe.. the only way Santorum loses is if short sighted republicans decide to cut off their noses to spite their faces... here's the MOST important number in all that polling data:

Philly 39 39

Any republican comes out of philly neck n neck with a democratic canidate, they will WIN the state, provided that republican voters don't do something incredibly stupid and not show up.. or decide to vote a protest vote against him.

The threat to Santorum isn't from any democrat, its from small minded republicans who are espousing "protest" or "staying home" because they don't like one thing or another that Santorum is done.

And personally I think that threat is vastly overstated... Its still well over a year until election, no one is paying attention to polling or the election except the uber hyper on both sides... as you get closer to election you will see some meaningful numbers.

Right now, the fact that Santorum is holding his own in Philly region is about the only meaningful information coming out of all this polling data... it shows there is NOT a statewide movement for change, and that Santorum will continue to carry votes in Philly.

[cynicom]

Conservatives always get blamed for the woes of the Republicans on this forum. Their constant whining and sniveling is embarrassing.

[JohnnyZ]

Their constant whining and sniveling is embarrassing.

Excuse me, but you're the one whining and sniveling on this very thread, boo-hoo, waaaah, waaaaah, Rick is bad, not gonna vote for him, waaaaaaaaaaa....

[socialismisinsidious]

you are right in that the most important number in that poll is the Philly data
but the "small minded Republican" in me then goes on to ask WHY Santorum is polling that way in PHILLY?! I'm sure it has nothing to do with him backing one socialist program after another of late.

[MikefromOhio]

yep, and how many time have YOU quit the GOP this week?

I have quit 2 times every day so far!!


woohooo!!!

[dangus]

>> So you're selling out PA conservatives by endorsing Casey in revenge. <<

Casey's father was the most popular governor in America. He knowingly abandoned any hope of national prominence within the Democratic party by remaining what the article would call a solid "Theocon."

Junior is benefitting from "Theocons" expecting that he would govern like his father, while liberals presume he'll pull a Gephardt/Dukakis/Clinton/Daschle/Byrd/Reid/Landrieu/Sasser/Gore and turn 180 degress from his professed conservativism at the first opportunity.

(Yes, all those raging lefties were pro-life moderates or conservatives before deciding to run for higher office or becoming majority leaders.)

[jpsb]

The GOP abandoned thier base, big time, the GOP is going back to being a minority party. Amnasty, open borders, borrow and spend, out-sourcing, factories for China pink slips for US workers, grany welfare, etc, etc, etc. There is no reason to vote GOP as long as elitest globalist RINO's run the GOP.

[HamiltonJay]

If you think the United States Senate is worse off with Santorum in there... well you and I just have vastly different views of the world.

Political realities of PA are what they are, you have to do well in Philly to win, if you don't you lose... that's not going to change ANYTIME soon.

Cutting off one's nose to spite ones face is definately not the way to ever achieve anything in a representative republic. Folks who wish to lament on Santorum really should be focussed on Rendell... the mans an absolute disaster of an administration and he knows he's a complete failure to this point... this means he is going to lie, cheat, bribe, steal and whatever else it takes to recover before re-election day... All this short sighted nonsense that's being focused on bashing Santorum should be focused on keeping the pressure and focus on Fast Eddie... Trust me, this guy is going to do ANYTHING he can get away with up to election day... and every one of you supposed republicans out there focused on Santorum are just going to make it that much easier for him to pull his scams.

[Coop]

Not after he endorsed that RINO Specter and sold out the Pa. conservatives.

One screw-up does not wipe out an impressive set of conservative credentials. I hope PA voters realize this before it's too late, but I'm not holding my breath.

[puroresu]

Brownback is leading the charge for more open borders and immigration.