Santorum Extremely Vulnerable

Political Wire ^ | 6-08-05 | Chris Bower

[UCAL]

In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:

>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6

Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44

Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46

Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.

The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.

Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.

Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:

Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51

Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.

[UCAL]

Anyone from Pennsylvania have a different take on this race? It would be a shame to lose Santorum.

[Sacajaweau]

Frist seriously damaged?? Not by my book!! He overcame ALL the hurdles and we won!!

[mikeus_maximus]

"Anyone from Pennsylvania have a different take on this race? It would be a shame to lose Santorum."

Not after he endorsed that RINO Specter and sold out the Pa. conservatives.

[RockinRight]

Santorum losing would NOT mean we'd lose a bunch of seats. Remember, Santorum f-ed up big time with the Specter debacle. THAT is why he's in trouble, don't be fooled otherwise.

[UCAL]

I was more focused on the poll data than his analysis. I was wondering how this looked from the viewpoint of Pennsylvania GOP activists.

[Paloma_55]

Theocons?

Where do these people come up with this stuff??

This is part of the mindless anti-Christian left taking the concept of "free exercise" as an assault on their atheism.

Thank God the forefathers were smart enough to explicitly protect free exercise of religion or the atheist/communist left would have already outlawed it.

[UCAL]

Thanks, I guess if that is the opinion of a significant number of conservatives, then he is toast.

[socialismisinsidious]

I think that the shame would be in getting Casey not in losing Santorum.
Santorum has been up to a bunch of socialist nonsense lately and for some reason has forgotten his base...
he is in favor of raising the minimum wage
he is in favor of raising the SS tax base
he is in favor of some stupid reverse SS plan that raises our taxes to give every newborn a bank account--yeah that won't become some idiotic entitlement program
won't mention Toomey or Specter and the Judiciary Chairmanship.....the shame would not be in losing Santorum, but in getting Casey.

[JesseJane]

Exactly right.

There will be political prices to pay in 2006.. They made their minds us to throw the base overboard, we've made our minds up to throw them overboard. NEXT!

[Tribune7]

ping

[kittymyrib]

Toomey should run against Santorum. Santorum has lost the confidence of the conservatives, his base.

[Ron in Acreage]

Allen/Santorum '08.

[Tribune7]

What if Toomey endorses Santorum? Would you forgive him them or turn on Toomey?

[UCAL]

U.S. Senate, PA 3/10/2005
Casey (D) 49%
Santorum (R) 42%
Undecided 8%
Data Collected 3/8/05 - 3/9/05
Geography State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population 506 Registered Voters
Margin of Error 4.4%
Client KDKA-TV Pittsburgh
WCAU-TV Philadelphia
WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[The Old Hoosier]

Rick would be the worst prez candidate ever. Cut him loose, it's fine if he loses, that may be the Dems' only victory in 2006.

And what's this about Brownback's "self-immolation?"

[Unam Sanctam]

This cannibalism of one's own among social conservatives is just terrible. OK, so you're not 100% happy with Santorum, but sheesh, do you think helping Dems, even if they put on a pro-life veneer, are seriously going to do anything to help protect conservative social values? Time to get over the Spector thing -- Santorum had a political debt to pay and paid it. These things happen in politics.