Santorum Extremely Vulnerable

Political Wire ^ | 6-08-05 | Chris Bower

[UCAL]

In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:

>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6

Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44

Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46

Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.

The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.

Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.

Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:

Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51

Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.

[SoothingDave]

But I do know the biggest thing this state needs to do is scrap the commonwealth system of boroughs and townships and consolidate.

In theory, such consolidation would streamline gov't services and eliminate redunduncies. In practice, it would be used as a scheme to raise taxes. I think that's why most PA'ers would refuse to go along with such a scheme.

Some areas are seeing joint police forces and sharing of recreational resources. That's a good start.

SD

[Abby4116]

Being unhappy with Santorum has nothing to do with Slick Eddie..I agree with everything that you have said regarding the "man"

Well, Slick Eddie convinced Barbara Hafer to not run against Casey in the primary - all dems are to be behind Casey. That, in itself, is enough to vote for Santorum (even if you do it unwillingly). Casey's father was pro-life (don't think he mentioned that he would not uphold the law and sign death warrants during his campaign) and I assume the son is too. Other than that, I doubt that the dems would endorse a "conservative" so wholeheartedly.

[SoothingDave]

He did it to advance himself, not because it was the right thing to do.

He did it to support his party and his president. Loyalty is not an anti-conservative trait.

SD

[Badray]

I'm not familiar with him at all. He is right that Ricky is in trouble, but he is reading it wrong.

It won't be dem opposition that beats him. It'll be Ricky's behavior and our reaction to it.

Outside this board, I haven't found anyone who says that they will vote for him again. Not one. He's not trusted.

[SoothingDave]

Other than that, I doubt that the dems would endorse a "conservative" so wholeheartedly.

Schumer has put the kibosh on Emily's list and the other abortionist groups to allow Casey to run. Believe me, he will toe the line when it comes to judges, especially for the Supreme Court.

SD

[Badray]

And I still have skeletons in my closet that are still flesh covered. LOL

[Badray]

I have to leave now, but I will be back later to address what is possible the most inane (yours) analysis of this race yet.

[SoothingDave]

That goes with the Act 72 deal, all the school districts in Johnstown voted for it except the two districts that have the highest property tax rates Westmont and Richland. I see the reason they don't want to lose their political power.

That whole deal was a mess. While I might favor getting local approval for tax hikes, this wasn't the way to do it. First, you had to raise your wage tax in the hopes that some magic gambling money down the line would allow you to lower property taxes.

But the worst thing was the referendum would encourage each distict every year to raise taxes by the minimum allowed. Whether they needed it or not.

SD

[UCAL]

Well, if you spend 25 years supporting liberals, hell yes.

Just one vote for Lowell Weicker but otherwise I've only supported good Republicans.

[HamiltonJay]

I've been called INANE and far worse by on here just about every election cycle when it comes to PA.. yet at the end of the Day my record is far better than all those who name call me or my analysis.

I'll stand on my record, you can continue your dreamland pursuits.

[Zechariah11]

If Santorum just loses the wacko jobs on the fringe, he won't get hurt that bad. Btw, Spector voted FOR Janice Rogers Brown, did he not?

A vote for Casey is a voted for Dingy Harry and Hillary.

[airborne]

There appears to be some here in PA (and on this forum) that will be happy to elect a Democrat (or two) for our Senators, just so they can have the satisfaction of punishing Santorum for objectional political moves.

I know Rick isn't perfect, but I don't trust Casey.

The numbers will rise for Santorum when the time comes. For now, it's just Dems and the MSM trying to create an issue with polls.

(my opinion)

[BlackRazor]

Any republican comes out of philly neck n neck with a democratic canidate, they will WIN the state

Agree, if accurate. But I wouldn't put much faith in that crosstab data. The margin of error on a small subset sample like that is going to be astronomical.

[SoothingDave]

The seniors in this state will gleefully pull the one-arm bandit. I'm always waiting in line at the local Sheetz because the old folks are tossing their money away on the lottery.

Yeah, but they need to lose $3 billion for the state to get $1 billion so I can save a few hundred (maybe) in property tax while paying another 0.1% in wage tax? No thank you.

I say give Mario a slot license so at least I can have some decent hockey to watch.

SD

[JesseJane]

You create scenarios attacking conservatives and trying to create a wedge by making unfounded accusations.

Really, show me where I've done that. People who call themselves conservatives that do not hold conservatives feed to the fire when they fail the base, are as good as Democrats to me. Santorum, KNEW of Specters behaviour on the Judiciary committee.. Specters reputation was KNOWN before he ran again. Santorums endorsement of Specter over Toomey was wrong, and it's my right to hold that opinion as a conservative. Now as for REPUBLICANS... they have a poor record for the 109th as far as I'm concerned.. And it was a large conservative base that worked hard to help them gain the majority.. that is a fact.. And with that Majority, they have frittered it away, allowing the Democrats to rule the roost.. I'm sorry if you disagree with me, but it's fine if you do..

[socialismisinsidious]

My point was: Hating what Santorum is doing does not mean that I have nothing left to fight Rendell.

Don't make any assumptions about the son...some of the stuff that I have read says that he is not pro-life/he will not act pro-life--that he is telling the people one thing and the liberal Dems another...which goes hand in hand with what you are saying--the dems wouldn't endorse a "conservative".