Posted on 06/09/2005 6:11:20 AM PDT by UCAL
In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:
>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6
Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44
Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46
Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.
The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.
Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.
Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:
Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51
Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.
And they help hillary eunuchs like casey get elected.
Bull.
Grow a set and call Santorum on the crap that he's pulling.
Don't excuse Santorum because Eddie is a POS too.
Throw them both out. Little Ricky is every bit the liar and cheat that Fast Eddie is. Take of the GOP blinders. You are as bad as clinton's sycophants.
PA is NOT better off because we have Ricky. We won't be worse off without him.
People want to live in a fantasy world where there are no compromises and no one ever panders or accepts less than perfection.
You have to be an idiot to think Santorum actually wants the minimum wage raised. He was allowed to craft and vote for an alternative to a Democrat proposal in order to get him on the record. There was no chance of either proposal passing.
Now, is it cynical of Santorum and the GOP to tout that he voted to increase the minimum wage when he campaigns to lunch-bucket Democrats? Shouldn't he instead hold steadfast and instead use the campaign to educate the voters about why the minimum wage is a bad idea?
If he were running for Senator of OZ, perhaps. In reality, people are dumb and sometimes politics is unpleasant. FReepers who think he's a "socialist" becuase of this vote are naive.
SD
You are exactly right.
Vote for principled candidates.
Sometimes that means Republicans, rarely, it means a Democrat. Very rarely, in fact.
But a liberal pubbie is as bad or worse than a bad dem.
We've looked at this backwards for years. When we are in the minority, perhaps a RINO isn't so bad. But when we are in the majority, we need to have conservatives throughout if we want to advance solid principle and good government.
It's time to purge the RINOs.
Don't excuse Santorum because Eddie is a POS too
Ya know ray you really don't have the permission to say such, while you rail against Santorum, and don't have the balls to stick up for him, while Rick Santorum sticks up for you in such areas as being pro-life.
How much is fast eddie rendell paying you dude?
well, here is a slight bit of truth, if you trust these people:
http://www.wevoteprolife.com/pennsylvania.htm
maybe they don't know what they are talking about
As yourself(badray), IMO.
One screw up?
What screw up?
Making a left turn in traffic when you should have turned right is a screw up.
Turning left in politics like Ricky's been doing is not a screw up. It is a course of action. He is actively working with Democrats pushing socialist programs.
Does he think that the left will like him? Does he think that the media will say nice things about him?
Maybe he is as stupid as Bush (when Bush cozies up to the left)? Maybe, just maybe, it's not stupidity. Maybe we are the stupid ones for not seeing the evil sooner.
If you think a first-term newbie Senator with no experience in Washington at all is going ot buck his party and caucus with the GOP when it comes to judicial nominations, you are perhaps not thinking things through.
Casey may be sincerely pro-life. I have no reason to doubt that. He may even vote that way on occasion in the Senate. But we know laws dont mean anything. It's all about the judges. When push comes to shove, he will vote with his party.
SD
Has he announced this? Doesn't he have any sons?
SD
Your so called screwup.
Sheesh, at least be honest ray, put up your candidates(casey, democrat) web link on FR.
Yuh know the guy the guy who is supposedly pro-life but will vote lock step with hillary.
PA IS NOT LIBERAL!
Philly is. Pittsburgh is Democrat. The rest of the state is fairly conservative. Nobody thought that Ricky could win when he ran as a hard core conservative, but he did. The Dems have been predicting his defeat since then, but as long as he stood firmly conservative, he won.
The Dems are not going to beat him this time. Ricky committed political suicide by peeing on his base. We are not going to reelect him. It has little if anything to do with the Dems.
Casey is as conservative as Santorum?
What are you drinking? Can I have some?
So you are calling Rick Santorum an obstructionist?
"Get your hands in the air and step away from the bong!"
By "peeing on his base" you mean "supporting the re-election of the senior senator of his own party from the same state."
That this is even an issue boggles the mind.
SD
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