[Strategerist]

As always, these products come out in all caps (NWS thing) so don't yell at me for it :-) SPC has put out a "high risk" zone which is very rare, and has a hatched area with a 25% chance of F3-F5 tornadoes within 25 miles of any given point, which is also rare.

Just a heads up for people in the region of the four corners of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and then extending into Oklahoma who may be heading out to the lake or something.

It's INCREDIBLY difficult to predict the difference between just a lot of thunderstorms and a few short weak tornadoes and a massive outbreak of long-track strong torndoes; for example in the OKC F5 tornado and outbreak in 1999, even the morning of, a really serious outbreak wasn't predicted...

And the last couple of years some major outbreaks forecasted have busted.

Interestingly a record of sorts was set in Oklahoma this year; this was the first year with accurate records (since 1950) where there wasn't a SINGLE tornado reported in the state in the Month of May.

It takes a while to confirm things and crunch the numbers but a record may have been set in the US overall for fewest tornadoes in May; it's certainly the lowest in the last 10 years for May tornadoes.

But it's June now and this one looks pretty ominous; some of the NWS offices are even having early afternoon press conferences for the media. I've seen a few fairly credible people compare it to a 1966 outbreak which I believe did a lot of damage in Kansas, especially to the KSU campus, etc. I've seen other credible people who think the tornado threat isn't THAT high.

[trisham]

Yikes. Severe weather bttt.

[Charles Wickman]

Is this from the same Weather Service Rick Santorum has asked to be cut?
I am all for privatization, but I do likes my Weather Service updates!

[RushCrush]

Thanks for the heads-up. Phooey on anyone who gives you crap for the all-caps.

love your screenname

[Optimist]

a record may have been set in the US overall for fewest tornadoes in May; it's certainly the lowest in the last 10 years for May tornadoes

Ahhh, obviously more proof of the catastrophic weather change associated with global warming!

(/sarcasm)

[cornfedcowboy]

dont forget about the ash warnings at Mt. St. Helens!Expires 8:00 AM EDT on June 05, 2005

ISSUED: 2005JUN04/0724Z VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: ST. HELENS 1201-05
LOCATION: N4612W12211 AREA: US-WASHINGTON

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 8363 FT (2549 M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2005/010

INFORMATION SOURCE: PILOT REPORT. GOES-10.

ERUPTION DETAILS: STEAM ERUPTION AT 04/0633Z

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 04/0700Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: ASH NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE
DATA. WINDS SFC/FL150 MOVING TO E 20 KNOTS.

FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: NOT AVBL

FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: NOT AVBL

FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: NOT AVBL

REMARKS: PILOT REPORT OVER MT. ST. HELENS REPORTS
ASH AND STEAM UP TO FL150. HOT SPOT IS OBSERVED IN
SHORTWAVE IMAGERY BUT NO ASH PLUME IS EVIDENT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF ASH IS
OBSESRVED. ... KARST

[Bahbah]

EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THESE REGIONS.

Weather Underground is indicating possible thunderstorms beginning about 4pm today here in St. Louis. We had lots of activity last Spring, but this year has been very quite. Ping to Missouri.

[No Blue States]

I didnt know the risk was that high north of us.
Here in North Tx the dryline is expected to aid a few storms if the cap can be busted...but most of it is expected to the North.

Interesting post, I will keep an eye on it from down here and hope my northern neighbors stay safe.

[ElkGroveDan]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (Outbreak of strong tornadoes possible across OK,KS,NE,IA,MO)

What does this have to do with Michael Jackson?

[sigSEGV]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Howlin]

Urgent weather ping in case this applies to you or your loved ones and friends!

[Mr. Jeeves]

Right now it looks like Chicago is about to get hit pretty good. Any Freepers in the area who can tie themselves to a tree and give us a "Dan Rather" report? ;)

[Petronski]

Sure is strangely humid and threatening here in NC Penna.

[Petronski]

Interestingly a record of sorts was set in Oklahoma this year; this was the first year with accurate records (since 1950) where there wasn't a SINGLE tornado reported in the state in the Month of May.

It's Bush's fault. He's using Rovian tactics to suppress tornadic activity so as to hide the threat posed by his inaction on Kyoto.

[Too much DUFU for Petronski...]

[socal_parrot]

Usual "June Gloom" here in coastal Orange County, CA. The sun pops out for about an hour in the afternoon and then the marine layer brings the clouds in again.

[jrp]

Nothing like a strong spring thunderstorm on the prairie. Being somewhat of a weather buff, I miss Midwestern spring weather (not the damage they can cause, though). No super cell T-storms here in San Diego. I still have my old Radio Shack WeatherAlert radio, but it doesn't get much use any more. I hope any tornados that form today stay out in open fields, where they can be viewed and studied without causing harm. Good luck all.

[No Blue States]

Storm chaser saying Emporia storms expected in the next 30-60 minutes and becomming rapidly tornadic.

There is nothing on the radar there right now, it will be interesting to see if he is right.

[Tigen]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_mw.html

I think I will have a watch from here.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the thread.

[Big Horn]

We haven't had any snow for a week here in Wyoming.

[Unknown Freeper]

Happy New Year...