Posted on 06/04/2005 10:27:53 AM PDT by Strategerist
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005
VALID 041600Z - 050000Z
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHWEST IOWA EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A VERY WARM/MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS AT MID DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THESE REGIONS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..GUYER/HALES.. 06/04/2005
Just a heads up for people in the region of the four corners of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and then extending into Oklahoma who may be heading out to the lake or something.
It's INCREDIBLY difficult to predict the difference between just a lot of thunderstorms and a few short weak tornadoes and a massive outbreak of long-track strong torndoes; for example in the OKC F5 tornado and outbreak in 1999, even the morning of, a really serious outbreak wasn't predicted...
And the last couple of years some major outbreaks forecasted have busted.
Interestingly a record of sorts was set in Oklahoma this year; this was the first year with accurate records (since 1950) where there wasn't a SINGLE tornado reported in the state in the Month of May.
It takes a while to confirm things and crunch the numbers but a record may have been set in the US overall for fewest tornadoes in May; it's certainly the lowest in the last 10 years for May tornadoes.
But it's June now and this one looks pretty ominous; some of the NWS offices are even having early afternoon press conferences for the media. I've seen a few fairly credible people compare it to a 1966 outbreak which I believe did a lot of damage in Kansas, especially to the KSU campus, etc. I've seen other credible people who think the tornado threat isn't THAT high.
Yikes. Severe weather bttt.
love your screenname
Ahhh, obviously more proof of the catastrophic weather change associated with global warming!
(/sarcasm)
dont forget about the ash warnings at Mt. St. Helens!Expires 8:00 AM EDT on June 05, 2005
ISSUED: 2005JUN04/0724Z VAAC: WASHINGTON
VOLCANO: ST. HELENS 1201-05
LOCATION: N4612W12211 AREA: US-WASHINGTON
SUMMIT ELEVATION: 8363 FT (2549 M)
ADVISORY NUMBER: 2005/010
INFORMATION SOURCE: PILOT REPORT. GOES-10.
ERUPTION DETAILS: STEAM ERUPTION AT 04/0633Z
OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 04/0700Z
OBS ASH CLOUD: ASH NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE
DATA. WINDS SFC/FL150 MOVING TO E 20 KNOTS.
FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: NOT AVBL
FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: NOT AVBL
FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: NOT AVBL
REMARKS: PILOT REPORT OVER MT. ST. HELENS REPORTS
ASH AND STEAM UP TO FL150. HOT SPOT IS OBSERVED IN
SHORTWAVE IMAGERY BUT NO ASH PLUME IS EVIDENT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF ASH IS
OBSESRVED. ... KARST
Weather Underground is indicating possible thunderstorms beginning about 4pm today here in St. Louis. We had lots of activity last Spring, but this year has been very quite. Ping to Missouri.
I didnt know the risk was that high north of us.
Here in North Tx the dryline is expected to aid a few storms if the cap can be busted...but most of it is expected to the North.
Interesting post, I will keep an eye on it from down here and hope my northern neighbors stay safe.
What does this have to do with Michael Jackson?
This is a storm chaser board, these people are extremely knowledgeable and serious.....I haven't registered so can't post, but you can read without registering; much is pretty technical, though. I've found they've often collectively had the best handle on a situation.
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=7&sid=107680ebd8bf266bcdb0dbd52c5f53b1
(Caveat: these are people that are excited by tornadoes and hope to see them, so when they talk about "good" and bad" they're talking about a lot of tornadoes being "Good"...however they do NOT hope for massive destruction or tornadoes hitting towns, their ideal is a nice visible tornado in the middle of a cornfield...so hopefully people won't be offended if they take a look at the board.)
Thanks, Like them I find weather fascinating while at the same time hoping no one gets hurt or loses property.
Im reading elsewhere they expect "Explosive" development of thunderstorms on the dryline and very large hail along with big tornadoes late this afternoon or early evening. They do not normally say such without a high confidence in their forecast. Im going to check out your link now.
"Setup reminds me a lot of 5/4/2003, which happens to be the last time I saw a tornado"
Long track tornadoes are proable given strong deep layer shear and high capes over a large area. THis should the best day of the year by far!!!!!!!!!!!!
These are the kinds of days when people lose their lives ... do not let it be a chaser today. I will be making the reporting of what I see a priority over all else today. Be safe and think clearly ... and hopefully we'll have interesting things to talk about tonight.
This setup has similarities to the nasty F5 which devastated Topeka KS on June 8, 1966.
Get ready and lets hope the public has their heads up and attention on the weather and not the lake...Today is ONE of those days that put chills into chasers and NWS offices/SPC on red alert....
Urgent weather ping in case this applies to you or your loved ones and friends!
Question, have you ever smelled an auditorium full of sweaty teenagers?? ick.
What does this have to do with Michael Jackson?
9 posted on 06/04/2005 12:45:37 PM CDT by ElkGroveDan
Michael Jackson, who?!
I just want to know if Scott Peterson (Laci and Conner's murderer) is still in San Quentin.
Thank you Howlin. I will be babysitting a couple of my little grandsons tonite so their parents can enjoy their sisters' dance recital. I will put our shoes & my cell phone by the basement door so we can be ready for whatever comes our way.
It doesn't look too bad in Mid-Missouri right now (13:57). I can see some stuff moving in from the west, but it doesn't look substantial. It is very humid and close.
Right now it looks like Chicago is about to get hit pretty good. Any Freepers in the area who can tie themselves to a tree and give us a "Dan Rather" report? ;)
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