Posted on 06/04/2005 12:48:38 AM PDT by M. Espinola
NEW YORK- Think $55 a barrel oil is bad? Wait till a hurricane knocks out a U.S. pipeline and a port at the same time that militants are killing hostages in Saudi Arabia, sending oil prices over $150 a barrel.
That's the premise of "Oil Storm," a television docudrama set to premiere in the United States on Sunday. The movie uses exaggerated real life events and fictional characters to examine America's dependence on oil and the havoc a major disruption in supply could wreak on ordinary people.
The movie depicts -- albeit in the extreme -- what energy markets have spent much of the past year fretting about: hurricanes that can rip apart oil infrastructure and war and turbulence in the Middle East, which have driven crude prices to record highs.
And the writers aim to show why the intricacies of oil rigs and oil reserves should be as much a concern for average Americans, with their taste for gas guzzling SUVs and summer road trips, as they are for traders at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Everything is so interconnected that anything that happens in Saudi Arabia or China will have an impact on oil, and therefore an impact on you or I in terms of what happens at the pump," said Caroline Levy, its British producer and co-writer.
Levy is well aware that the movie could be criticized for fanning fears of a doomsday scenario, similar to last year's Hollywood blockbuster "The Day After Tomorrow", in which New York was flooded by a tidal wave before being frozen solid, in a series of events that defied the laws of physics.
Few specialists expect a chain of events to occur any time soon that would lead to oil at $150 a barrel, although investment bank Goldman Sachs did send shockwaves into the market in March when it warned oil prices could hit $105 a barrel under a "super-spike" scenario.
"None of what we're saying is so out of the realms of belief," said Levy, adding the movie is based on numerous interviews with energy experts and only a slight exaggeration of past events. "The purpose is to show how vulnerable the infrastructure of the oil industry in America is."
In the movie, which will be aired on Fox's FX network, a powerful hurricane reminiscent of last year's Ivan smashes into Port Fourchon, Louisiana, cutting off a majority of the nation's oil imports and crippling production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The U.S. administration turns to its ally and top world exporter Saudi Arabia, which boosts supplies but then is forced to deal with an unfolding crisis of its own, involving "Shoot first, ask questions later" security forces and hostages.
The movie depicts panic spreading across oil markets, sending oil prices above $150 a barrel, while cars across the United States line up outside gas stations, and everyone's lives are thrown into disarray.
"At the end of the movie, prices go back to pretty much what they were at the start of the year," said Levy. "But the film is basically saying 'What we can we learn from this?'"
all photos added
I know what you mean in late 2003, not that long ago, I had people say I was full of it when I repeatedly stated crude oil was heading for %50+ over 10 to 12 months when oil temporarily reversed a bit under $30. Commodity brokers we some of those which lacked real insight. The ones which solely 'invest' in stocks, couped with others which never traded anything, let alone oil or any other commodity contacts are the biggest scoffers and place blame on little guys in relation to the mega funds.
Crude at $70ish may even look cheap as we speak on this subject this time next year.
Instead of investigating the possibilities of equally benefiting from these highly volatile markets they blame those which issued warnings, for the current prices. Go figure. Scoffing schleppers.
Here is a website you should find very useful as were enter Fall and Winter: Futures and Commodity Market News
Bump
Is this at all relevant today, following Katrina?? A little prophetic?
I think a lot of the price hikes and shortages today are media creations, as in Atlanta. But interesting that this movie came out not so long ago. And of course, it was over blown, but maybe not quite as much as I thought while watching it then.
If it was not Katrina the oil/energy problem would have been made worse in some other fashion.
"I think a lot of the price hikes and shortages today are media creations, as in Atlanta. But interesting that this movie came out not so long ago. And of course, it was over blown, but maybe not quite as much as I thought while watching it then."
Just as in other historic 'energy shortfalls', there are those which are milking it for every penny, creating additional problems to the existing adverse supply situation.
I watched the British directed movie and waited and waited for that soap opera to improve. (East-enders was more exciting). It is very interesting the movie was played up by the 'media' not that long ago?
What is high-test gas selling for down there? I have always thought whatever the price of 93 octane is selling for in times of 'energy dilemma's', within a couple of weeks (or less) 87 octane will sell for the same price.
The Governor declared a State of Emergency with regard to Gas Prices. Basically, stations are limited to charging the same amount over wholesale that they were before the crisis. So many stations dropped their prices back down. This whole thing in Atlanta was way overblown, based on incomplete media reports and quickly spreading rumors.
bump
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