Posted on 06/02/2005 6:17:22 AM PDT by twinself
THE Dutch “nee” has all but killed off hopes of keeping the constitution alive, but Tony Blair will avoid any immediate pronouncements on its future to avoid being blamed for its demise. The treaty’s supporters must now not only find a way to reverse the votes in two EU founding countries, but dissuade other member states from abandoning the ratification process and counter a domino effect of “no” votes in those states that do proceed with referendums. The Poles and Czechs both showed signs of wobbling on their referendum plans yesterday, while polls show support for the constitution plummeting even in Luxembourg, a founding member of the EU, which is to hold the next referendum in July.
Polls in the Grand Duchy show the “yes” camp’s lead shrinking from 36 to 14 per cent in the last month. Luxembourg is seen as the most instinctively pro-European country in the Union.
Mr Blair, on holiday in Tus-cany, made no comment after the Dutch result. British officials are worried that he will be blamed for killing off the treaty before other European leaders have had a chance to discuss the treaty’s future at their summit on June 16. “There are a lot of people who want to finger us. We don’t want to give them any ammunition,” one diplomat said yesterday.
However, allies of Mr Blair, including the former EU commissioner Lord Kinnock of Bedwellty, have said that to continue ratification would be “disastrous” for the EU, and that it is futile for the UK or other countries to hold referendums. Downing Street is hoping other countries will reach the same conclusion.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister whose country holds the presidency of the EU, has been holding a series of urgent meetings with EU leaders to try to find a way to keep the constitution alive.
He and José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President, have repeatedly insisted that all countries must continue to try to ratify the treaty. They say that no country should be able to veto it and that a way forward can be found only after all have had their say. They know that if the ratification process is called off, then the treaty is dead.
Before yesterday the six countries — Poland, Portugal, Ireland, Luxembourg, Denmark and the Czech Republic — that are planning a referendum had all said they would continue. However, Jiri Paroubek, the Czech Prime Minister, said he would seek more time for the ratification process, while President Kwasniewski of Poland said it would decide how and when to ratify the constitution after the summit.
Marco Incerti, of the Centre for European Policy Studies, which is funded by the Commission, said of the Dutch referendum: “This vote will strengthen the hand of those who are calling for an end to the ratification process. The treaty may not be dead, but it is on its deathbed and has gone deeper into a coma.”
The constitution’s supporters can now only get the treaty ratified by bypassing both the Dutch and the French referendums, risking a backlash from European citizens angry that their opinions are being treated with contempt by their rulers.
The Dutch “nee” also makes it far more difficult for supporters of the constitution to claim that the French “non” was just a protest against President Chirac. The Dutch vote has been dominated by European issues, ranging from the budget and bureaucracy to the euro and Turkey’s impending membership, which is highly unpopular. “It shows there is a lot of opposition from different quarters, and that it is not just the French being difficult,” Signor Incerti said.
The French vote was not only a devastating blow for President Chirac, but has cast huge doubt on the entire direction of the EU. Mr Blair called for a debate on the future course of the Union, and how it will meet up to the challenges of a globalised world. In contrast, M Chirac said he wanted a more “social” Europe, more of the French model and rejected “Anglo-Saxon” economics. The split between Mr Blair and M Chirac — between freemarket economics and high social protection – is increasingly being seen in Brussels as a battle for the soul of the EU.
WHAT'S NEXT
June 6 Jack Straw is expected to announce whether or not Britain will hold a referendum
June 9 Geoff Hoon, the Leader of the House, could announce that a referendum Bill will be shelved
June 13-14 EU foreign ministers meet
June16-17 EU leaders hold their regular summit. Jacques Chirac suggested in a letter to leaders that deliberations on what to do next should begin at this summit
July 1 Britain takes over the rotating EU presidency
July 10 Luxembourg holds its referendum on the constitution
LOL! Brussels, we have a problem!
<<-PING->>
Yeah, they definitely have a problem. The problem will be getting bigger and bigger as rejection of EU Constitution in all of the countries that left is only a matter of time. Hopefully next months with Britain ahead of EU will shake the foundations of Germano-French wannabe superstate.
LOL
Note that this word is used without irony and understand one of the most fundamental differences between our ancestors who left Europe (and us) and the ones who chose to stay behind (and their descendents).
First of all as a 100% Pole from Poland I am a living example of a descendant of those who stayed behind :) That you have a better gene pool is what you'd been suggesting?
But another thing struck me in the article - it is the final clash of social and pro-market models on European arena. Socialist welfare (most of all France, Germany to lesser extent) states do not want to participate in global competition as long as they would be required to work more and cheaper. UK opened its market to workers from EU necomers and its economy flourishes. In a long term everybody gains. That's why I think that UK+Ireland&Eastern Europe would a healthy counterbalance to Europe's soft-core ;)
You know, I have to say that I've grown to love the Poles more and more as time goes on.
I meant that the vision of the relationship between government and citizens in Europe continues on many levels to be "rulers and subjects". It is something I observed living there some years ago. One of the unique things about America is that (philosophically, at least) we turn that relationship on its head. There are plenty of Europeans who also believe that government should be the servant and not the "ruler". After all, it was the European enlightenment which spawned that paradigm shift, but it took better root here than in the place where it was conceived.
Your observation is also (IMHO) completely correct. In the more "socialized" parts of Europe competition is seen as anything but healthy.
Wouldn't it seem logical that the Tories make an issue now of demanding a vote on the EU treaty..saying that when they tkae control of Parliament, it will be the first thing they do? Also, if the EU can suggest that countries keep revoting, the Tories should demand that all countries who have passed the Constitution via legislative action be required to hold a national vote..
Treated with disdain? Yes, absolutely. As much and as consistently as in Europe? I don't think so, but that's just an opinion based on having lived for a few years and very often traveled in Europe.
You know at least historically "Byzantinian" relations between the rulers and subjects were characteristic more to Asian power models (seen in Russia for example to this very day). For example Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth on the other hand was based more on often on tradition of wide and relatively accessible aristocracy (so called "szlachta") giving vote rights to many citizens but leading to anarchy and weakening of monarch sometimes. European Enlightement with French, American and Polish constitutions were and foundation of modern Parliamentary democracy.
Ah gee wizz, this couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. The tower of babel didn't work the first time. It won't work now. The eurotrash aren't really as dumb as they seem. They don't want to merge with the lazy frogs and socialist and lazy germans. The frogs did everybody a favor. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
LOL big time :D !
"But another thing struck me in the article - it is the final clash of social and pro-market models on European arena."
I think you have summed things up very nicely twinself. This is exactly what this is about. So far, the fault lines are not on ethnicity (Turkey's non-membership excepted), but on economic ideology.
I'm not going to touch the "gene pool" issue.
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