Posted on 05/25/2005 6:28:42 AM PDT by GaryL
All you conservatives out there – listen up! Take a deep breath! Climb down from the ledge! Chill out! Things are not as bad as they seem! As a matter of fact, things are downright rosy!
In spite of what all the conservative pundits are saying – including Rush Limbaugh, Bill Bennett, Laura Ingraham, Thomas Sowell – we did not get rolled in Monday’s deal with the Democrats. As a matter of fact, it’s just the opposite. The Democrats have been taken to the cleaners…only they don’t know it yet! As usual, they have followed Teddy Kennedy’s advice and he has led them into another political disaster.
The problem is that no one – including our side - is looking at the big picture. What actually happened as a result of this deal is that, for all practical purposes, the filibuster as a means to obstruct judicial nominees is dead! Isn’t that what we wanted in the first place? And like Reagan winning the Cold War without firing a shot, we achieved this goal without having to initiate the so-called “nuclear option,” and thus avoided taking the huge hit from the mainstream media. The MSM was waiting with bated breath, ready to pounce on the Republicans like a cat on a cornered mouse. Can’t you just hear them repeating the mantra “…and the Republicans actually changed the rules in the middle of the debate!”
In the first place, we now will get confirmed the three nominees deemed by the Democrats to be the most “extreme”: Pricilla Owens, Janice Rodgers Brown, and William Pryor. OK. Follow me on this. If these three are the most “extreme” - by the Democrats own definition - what does that make the others? That’s right…moderates! Does anyone really believe that the Democrats will now resurrect the filibuster to obstruct “moderate judges”? Of course not! Majority Leader Frist has vowed that all of the remaining judges will be put forward for votes promptly, possibly within a week or two. Should the Democrats be foolish enough to filibuster any of these “moderates,” he has also vowed again to ignite the “nuclear option.” All the centrist Republicans who supported the agreement – including Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham – have likewise vowed to support Frist should it become necessary. Let me see…they give up the filibuster while we retain the right to use the “nuclear option” against the filibuster and have become united in our opposition to it. Sounds like a victory to me!
How about the seven Democratic “centrist” senators? I doubt very seriously that any of them would support a filibuster at this stage of any kind, most especially against the remaining “moderate” judges. Guess what. These people have been looking for a way to dissociate themselves from the Teddy Kennedy wing of their party… and now they have found it. Trust me…THE FILIBUSTER IS DEAD! Without these seven senators, the Democrats couldn’t filibuster Attila the Hun!
And don’t you see how silly the Democrats are looking already? What was all the fuss about Pricilla Owens in the first place that they had to block her for four years? This so-called “extremist” will be confirmed today with a sizeable number of their own party voting for her! That’s some “extremist!” In other words, they’ve proven again for all to see that you can’t trust their judgment on who is really “extremist” and who isn’t. Like the little boy who cried wolf, their use of the label “extremist” has a definite “hollow ring” to it.
Let’s recap: the Republicans have effective eliminated the filibuster without taking the huge media hit, while letting it be know that they retain the threat of the “nuclear option,” with their seven senators on record as supporting Frist should the Democrats be foolish to try the filibuster again. In addition, the Republicans appear as the “moderates” in the debate, willing to try compromise to avoid a senate showdown. As an added side benefit, John McClain – by taking the lead on this and being so willing to side with the Democrats – has shown once again that he can’t be trusted and for all practical purposes has committed political suicide. Can anyone imagine him winning a single Republican primary in 2008? As usual the media has got it wrong again, making McCain the winner and Frist the loser.
All in all, not a bad day’s work!
I agree with what you are saying here. How this situation will play out remains to be seen but I think things worked out fairly well. Having Owen and Brown confirmed will be a huge setback to the obstructioninsts, regardless of how they try to frame it.
Caffeine is a good thing. Problem with me is I get a few cups in me, come here and want to rip the monitor from its mooring :)
Perhaps it's just me, but I don't think that surrender is a winning strategy.
'Does anyone really believe that the Democrats will now resurrect the filibuster to obstruct “moderate judges”?'
'In a word: Yes.'
They most definitely will. But I think their ability to successfully execute one with regards to the judicial nominations has been weakened.
The final word here is "extraordinary circumstances" and what that means. The Dems lie and cheat here with impunity. The deal hangs on the exquisite ambiguity of the above phrase.
>The final word here is "extraordinary circumstances" and what that means. The Dems lie and cheat here with impunity. The deal hangs on the exquisite ambiguity of the above phrase.<
The key is it only depends on the integrity of 5 of the Dems.These guys place as much importance on being seen as "principled and independant" as McPain does.They covet the love of the MSM.
By my count, 20 of Bush's 30 appellate court nominees have been approved.
NEWSFLASH FROM THE RADIO... FRISTS warning to democrats... "Don't screw around with this compromise, WE WILL put the nuke back on the table, AND WE WILL USE IT!!!!!"
NEWSFLASH FROM THE RADIO... FRISTS warning to democrats... "dont screw around with this compromise, WE WILL put the nuke back on the table, AND WE WILL USE IT!!!!!"
It's the Democrats -- not the Republicans -- who are the ones facing a serious political problem here. The Democrats have been looking to use the Judiciary committee and/or filibusters to hold up executive branch nominees because they realize that voting against some of them (particularly the women and the Hispanics) puts them in a very difficult position from a political standpoint. The last thing they want is to face a future re-election campaign in which these votes are held against them and could ultimately cause their defeat (see Exhibit A: Tom Daschle).
That is the way I have experienced it in our state gov. election. Didn't like the Repub but will never vote Dem so I just sat it out.
I don't at all. The public doesn't see they have done anything wrong.
IMO, its hard to say now who got the better end of the deal, but at least the Repubs got 3 of their most preferred appointees. That in itself is a move in the right direction.
A lot of people want a conclusive showdown with the Dems right now that would forever shame them and put them in their place. But this is but one battle in a long-term war. And the tide turned in our favor some time back, so its really about patience now.
The fundamental flaw in your analysis is that you assume that the moderates in their hearts want to vote with the president on Supreme Court nominees and that the compromise is just a way of getting there. In fact, it is just the opposite.
The real problem is that the R's in the compromise like the Supreme Court just the way it is. They don't want a conservative majority on the Court. For example, several of them are explicitly pro-abortion. Lindsay Graham is probably homosexual and I suspect he has the Andrew Sullivan problem with a conservative Supreme Court--it wont impose Gay Marriage on the country.
Their dilemma is, to get the Court they want (more of the same), they have to buck their president and there might be a political cost for doing it. (I except McCain from this analyis. His motives look to be pure spite and a pipedream that he can be president in 2008. I don't think he cares about the composition of the supreme court one way or the other).
The compromise was exquisitely designed to help the moderates vote for the supreme court they want (a leftist court) with as much political cover as they can concoct from the Old Media and their buds in the democrat party. So they pose the issue as being a matter of 'holding the middle', 'rejecting theocracy' and 'voting for the traditions of the senate.' So they are brave and principled for doing what they have done and intend to do. Frankly, they have played it beautifully.
If things continue going as they are, we lose the Supreme Court because of this elegant piece of political gamesmanship. The only way we come out of this with a decent Supreme Court is if we convince enough of the seven (and Specter and Hagel) that they will pay an enormous price for bucking the party. The only way to do that is as follows:
(1) The administration has to convince them that it is going to keep sending Brown/Owen/Estrada type nominees and that the moderates are not going to intimidate him into say, a Gonzales.
(2) The Senate Leadership has to convince them that it will continue to force votes and require them to take a stand on the record over and over. The Senate leadership has to be willing to lose a cloture vote and the nuclear option and to keep coming back and trying again.
(3) Conservative voters have to convince them that we will crawl across broken glass to destroy their political careers, their children's political careers, and anything else of theirs we can get our hands on if they buck the President.
If all three of these conditions hold, we can regroup from this very terrible defeat because they will blink. If not, we will have a liberal supreme court for the next 20 years driving us inexorably to Gomorrah.
I think he is either hallucinating or dreaming.
This has been my take all along. All the the RATS got was a face-saving camera opportunity. Black Knight anymore?
So the first confirmations proceeding is "nothing"? Then the next wave are "nothing" too? The RATS surrendered and called it victory and you fell for it.
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