If Reid doesn't have the votes to win on the nuclear option then the Dems will supply the votes necessary to get to the 60 needed for cloture, tuck their tails between their legs, stall the Senate in several minor ways, piss and moan, but in the end regroup to fight this battle on another day when they might be able to muster the one or two additional votes they need to beat Frist.
There will be no vote on the nuclear option. Neither side really wants and it won't be needed. For McPain and the other RINOs, their cover will be lost and they will have to go on record and vote up or down for a bunch of Bush nominees that are way too conservative for them. That is what all this deal making has been about. They don't want to go on the record one way or the other. They don't want to vote yes because they don't like the nominees. They don't want to vote no because it would hurt them with the party base. Much easier to just let the Dems kill the nominations. But it's not going to turn out that way. Frist will win.
I agree, but I admit to being one of those folks who thought he was weinie for not getting tougher faster. Now I believe he was SMART to patient, or as my husband put it, "giving them enough rope to hang themselves."
This is what I expected them to do. If Dr. Frist was very clever he would have instructed a couple of Republicans to let Traitor Reid think they were voting to continue the filibusters so Reid would take it to a vote ...
If the cloture motion passes for Owen, then the DEMs can obstruct another nominee, of their choosing, as some future time.
Frist will win.
But we don't know WHAT he will win, just yet. Does he win a vote on just Owen? Or does he reverse the abuse of the Constitution that the DEMs have perpetrated by blocking nominees with a minority of Senators? He can't start getting to the bigger prize if the cloture motion passes.
Interesting prediction. I think it will only happpen if the 'defecting' democrats have tacit approval from the party leadership. Which further will lead me to conclude that the democrats haven't lost all semblence of reason and common sense.
Reids comments over the past couple of weeks tend to make me question this. He seems desparate. I guess we'll find out if he's really a loon or just playing one in the Senate.
Thanks for your post. I really like well thought out politcal predictions, and it's the reason I follow FR. One sure has to wade through a pile of wasted bandwith to find them though.
I am not sure if I agree with your analysis. McCain and the RINOs can vote for cloture without supporting the option. The Dems cannot throw in the towel on the cloture vote or the option without seriously alientating their liberal base. Hence, I think it is inevitable for the Dems to face the music on this one.
Oh! That is just so delicious! So Frist needs to supply a few republican votes AGAINST the cloture to avoid this tactic, and keep up the deception. End game! I would not want to be Mr. Reid right now.