The data you referred us all to refutes your own arguments. Whoa now, let's slow down a minute. I entered this discussion on this thread because another poster made this comment in post #6:
where does it end? the answer is, it doesn't end, until the US economy is drivien down to only service jobs, government jobs, lawyers, real estate agents, and corporate executives.
My objective and my comments were to show that statement to be irrational and false. I have done that. I presented this data to show the depth of our economy, incuding manufacturing. As you stated, and as the data shows, manufacturing output grew slightly in the 5 year period between 1998 and 2003. Non-services and non-government output still accounts for 37% of our total. It was 41% in 1998. It is shrinking, but as a % of total in a growing economy. And, you seem to have forgotten one little detail that occured in that time frame:
September 11, 2001
Despite an act of war on our own soil, in the financial center of the world, in the middle of a recessing 'bubble' from the dot.com / dot.bomb of the late 1990's, we still have been able to maintain a strong, albeit not robustly growing, manufacturing base.
Yes, 74.4% of growth comes from outside manufacturing, but that is to be expected. The world is shifting towards a smaller heavy manufacturing economy and a larger role for technology, information, finances, and services. I believe this is a good thing and unstoppable. It is not a zero sum game. Eventually, many of the low level manufacturing done in China will either be; losing/loss of demand, or too expensive once their currency gets a real market value.
We will defeat China's unfair currency AND labor practices, one way or the other, either through the 'laws' of economic and market forces, or through our own 'force'.
But we will prevail. Until then, we should be more focused on things like; improving our elementary and high school curricuulums, lowering corporate taxes, providing better incentives for research and development, strengthening our capitalist ideology and dismantling socialist creep. Let's get and keep our own house in order, and China will eventually become our ally as their Chicom government collapses under their own artificial weight.
Think more like this...
And, you seem to have forgotten one little detail that occurred in that time frame: September 11, 2001
It is pointless to condescend by assuming anyone on FR has forgotten 9/11 or its effects.
Whoa now, let's slow down a minute. I entered this discussion on this thread because another poster made this comment in post #6:
And I entered the discussion because you responded to the poster with this comment in post #15.
Please, do not insult us with such nonsense. Technology driven business, logistics driven business, transportation business, etc, PLUS all the infrastructure support required for those businesses, will all remain strong.
When I disputed your argument you called my facts "strictly anecdotal" and referred me to review the facts from the link you provided in Post #65. I reviewed the data from Post #65 and provided detailed analysis of manufacturing losses including the industries you spoke of above. Your response was to request "we slow down" and simplify your argument back to a statement I did not address in response to your Post #65.
You continue in this latest post to ignore the facts. Facts obtained from the very link you provided. Technology manufacturing has shrunk. Transportation manufacturing has shrunk. Below is each subcategory of manufacturing data and the associated percent increase or decrease between 1998 - 2003. Again, this is the data you provided for all of us in Post #65.
Wood products: 1.43%
Nonmetallic mineral products: -5.80%
Primary metals: -22.77%
Fabricated metal products: -3.88%
Machinery: -9.48%
Computer and electronic products: -4.46%
Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: -14.16%
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts: -2.53%
Other transportation equipment: -5.18%
Furniture and related products: -1.31%
Miscellaneous manufacturing: 22.67%
Food and beverage and tobacco products: 8.00%
Textile mills and textile product mills: -15.99%
Apparel and leather and allied products: -19.36%
Paper products: 2.89%
Printing and related support activities: -5.03%
Petroleum and coal products: 77.88%
Chemical products: 9.61%
Plastics and rubber products: 12.43%
Yes, 74.4% of growth comes from outside manufacturing, but that is to be expected. The world is shifting towards a smaller heavy manufacturing economy and a larger role for technology, information, finances, and services.
Actually 98.19% of the 1998 - 2003 growth came from outside of manufacturing. The 74.4% figure was the top 6 areas of growth. I do not know how this is to be "expected". We should expect that Government, Real Estate, and Services to be the future source of our economic growth for the nation ? Our country built its' wealth from our historically unmatched manufacturing capabilities. Manufacturing produces wealth because the product is something tangible. I could scratch backs for a dollar but I have provided nothing tangible to the economy. At the macroeconomic level, services transfer wealth while manufacturing creates wealth.
Between 1998 - 2003 Manufacturing dropped from 24.2% of out Gross Output to 19.8% of our Gross Output. Do we really want this to continue in this direction ? I have no problem with our businesses closing if we can not compete on a level playing field but China's fixed currency does not provide a level playing field!
Look, I do admire a positive approach to our country's future and belief we will prevail. I just believe optimism is effective only when it is based in fact. To simply say our capitalist nature will prevail when another country is using parasitic policies to steal our wealth is naive. China maybe a strong ally someday but with today's circumstances it does us better to also remember this is a country that uses force to repress its' citizens, has payed influence money into our election campaigns, and done nothing to protect our intellectual property to name but just a few.
Ronald Reagan said it best... Trust but verify. I cannot trust that China is our friend or our economy will benefit from their fixed currency because the facts don't verify.