September 11, 2001
It is pointless to condescend by assuming anyone on FR has forgotten 9/11 or its effects.
Whoa now, let's slow down a minute. I entered this discussion on this thread because another poster made this comment in post #6:
And I entered the discussion because you responded to the poster with this comment in post #15.
Please, do not insult us with such nonsense. Technology driven business, logistics driven business, transportation business, etc, PLUS all the infrastructure support required for those businesses, will all remain strong.
When I disputed your argument you called my facts "strictly anecdotal" and referred me to review the facts from the link you provided in Post #65. I reviewed the data from Post #65 and provided detailed analysis of manufacturing losses including the industries you spoke of above. Your response was to request "we slow down" and simplify your argument back to a statement I did not address in response to your Post #65.
You continue in this latest post to ignore the facts. Facts obtained from the very link you provided. Technology manufacturing has shrunk. Transportation manufacturing has shrunk. Below is each subcategory of manufacturing data and the associated percent increase or decrease between 1998 - 2003. Again, this is the data you provided for all of us in Post #65.
Wood products: 1.43%
Nonmetallic mineral products: -5.80%
Primary metals: -22.77%
Fabricated metal products: -3.88%
Machinery: -9.48%
Computer and electronic products: -4.46%
Electrical equipment, appliances, and components: -14.16%
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts: -2.53%
Other transportation equipment: -5.18%
Furniture and related products: -1.31%
Miscellaneous manufacturing: 22.67%
Food and beverage and tobacco products: 8.00%
Textile mills and textile product mills: -15.99%
Apparel and leather and allied products: -19.36%
Paper products: 2.89%
Printing and related support activities: -5.03%
Petroleum and coal products: 77.88%
Chemical products: 9.61%
Plastics and rubber products: 12.43%
Yes, 74.4% of growth comes from outside manufacturing, but that is to be expected. The world is shifting towards a smaller heavy manufacturing economy and a larger role for technology, information, finances, and services.
Actually 98.19% of the 1998 - 2003 growth came from outside of manufacturing. The 74.4% figure was the top 6 areas of growth. I do not know how this is to be "expected". We should expect that Government, Real Estate, and Services to be the future source of our economic growth for the nation ? Our country built its' wealth from our historically unmatched manufacturing capabilities. Manufacturing produces wealth because the product is something tangible. I could scratch backs for a dollar but I have provided nothing tangible to the economy. At the macroeconomic level, services transfer wealth while manufacturing creates wealth.
Between 1998 - 2003 Manufacturing dropped from 24.2% of out Gross Output to 19.8% of our Gross Output. Do we really want this to continue in this direction ? I have no problem with our businesses closing if we can not compete on a level playing field but China's fixed currency does not provide a level playing field!
Look, I do admire a positive approach to our country's future and belief we will prevail. I just believe optimism is effective only when it is based in fact. To simply say our capitalist nature will prevail when another country is using parasitic policies to steal our wealth is naive. China maybe a strong ally someday but with today's circumstances it does us better to also remember this is a country that uses force to repress its' citizens, has payed influence money into our election campaigns, and done nothing to protect our intellectual property to name but just a few.
Ronald Reagan said it best... Trust but verify. I cannot trust that China is our friend or our economy will benefit from their fixed currency because the facts don't verify.
I did not mean to be condescending, just pointing out the event that had the largest single impact on our economy in the last 50 years. How much can we account for 9-11 in these numbers?
-1%?
-2%?
-5%?
-10%?
Not sure anyone knows for sure, but it did impact our economy and thus the volume of our output.
You continue in this latest post to ignore the facts.
Please note that my latest post focused on the fact that overall, manufacturing gross output was up 1.8% from 1998-2003. Despite 9-11. Even you confirmed that in one of your posts. That is a long way from everyone being a lawyer or real estate agent or whatever else we are supposedly becoming.
I will concede that you are correct (because the data is what it is) when taking the breakdowns of individual segments as you have done. I stand corrected.
What we don't know is how much of these drops are due to lower unit pricing to maintain market share, or lost market share. Some of both I presume.
I believe China's artificial economy is nearing it's apex. The announcement by the Bush Admin this week is the first shot across the bow. The EU will follow, who collectively (I believe) has recently become China's #1 market. China's Chicom charade can't, and won't, go on forever.
I have stated all along on this thread that I am against China's fixed currency and have suggested several opinions about how and why we should do something about it. I am not a China lover, I am an American. Optimist. Capitalist. Realist.
I have accomplished my primary objective here, which was to 'shout down' the naysayers and sky is falling crowd. You have made your point, which I concede, regarding the loss in individual sectors, some of which I stated otherwise as remaining strong. How much 9-11 has impacted those and how much they will recover in the near future is unknown. Let's agree that China is a major economic competitor, using unfair currency and labor practices, and the USA needs to attack these practices consistently AND improve our own competitiveness from the ground up.
Ronnie would be happy with that.
OMG LOL
Do you recall what happened during this period?