Real wages fall at fastest rate in 14 years

Financial Times ^ | May 10 2005 | Christopher Swann

[nickcarraway]

Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest rate in 14 years, according to data surveyed by the Financial Times.

Inflation rose 3.1 per cent in the year to March but salaries climbed just 2.4 per cent, according to the Employment Cost Index. In the final three months of 2004, real wages fell by 0.9 per cent.

The last time salaries fell this steeply was at the start of 1991, when real wages declined by 1.1 per cent.

Stingy pay rises mean many Americans will have to work longer hours to keep up with the cost of living, and they could ultimately undermine consumer spending and economic growth.

Many economists believe that in spite of the unexpectedly large rise in job creation of 274,000 in April, the uneven revival in the labour market since the 2001 recession has made it hard for workers to negotiate real improvements in living standards.

Even after last month's bumper gain in employment, there are 22,000 fewer private sector jobs than when the recession began in March 2001, a 0.02 per cent fall. At the same point in the recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, private sector employment was up 4.7 per cent.

Stagnant salaries push more families towards the breadline

A surfeit of workers and the threat of off-shoring are allowing companies to call the shots on wages.

Go there

“There is still little evidence that workers are gaining much traction in their negotiations,” said Paul Ashworth, US analyst at Capital Economics, the consultancy. “If this does not pick up, it raises the prospect of a sharper slowdown in consumer spending than we have been expecting.”

Economists are divided over the best source for measuring pay increases in the US, since the government releases three main measures. A gauge of average hourly earnings is released with the employment report. This rose by 0.3 per cent in both March and April and 0.1 per cent in February. Even with a slight rise in the hours employees are working, from 33.7 to 33.9, this suggests wages are struggling to keep pace with inflation. The gauge covers non-supervisory workers, about 80 per cent of the workforce.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis figures for personal income showed wages rising at close to 6 per cent in 2004 but slowing down since. This measure also showed wages rising by just 0.3 per cent in each of the past 2 months. This is a broader gauge and includes small businesses and professional partnerships, but it measures total corporate wage bill rather than wages per person.

The Employment Cost Index, seen by some as the most reliable measure, excludes overtime and professional partnerships.

[BurbankKarl]

1991

year of the bubble

[Nowhere Man]

So are you telling me that your decisions in life don't affect your success in life? It must be Bush's fault, or is it Halliburton's.

I don't place the blame on any one person or entity, but I do believe there is a lot more to the process such as bum luck, beig born into the "right family," Grace of God, and other external factors too. Sometimes even one can make the right decsions and work hard but still fail depending on these and other factors. Many times it is just a crap shoot, other times, it is who you know.

[Nowhere Man]

You are confusing freedom with wealth. 100 years ago USA was freerer country and much poorer. And there are richer countries than USA.

I think in some ways, we were better off that way, but time and progress marched on so what can I say?

[NewRomeTacitus]

The point of the cartoon was to show that nothing can compete with slavery. That our remaining financial powerhouses have to contend with it on a competitive basis illustrates how we've lost our upper hand and superpower status. We have to rebuild our manufacturing base, reinvest in our in-nation businesses and regain financial interdepenpence to regain what our war veterans fought to secure. Cut off the strings of dependence on political entities we have no influence over - especially Red China. I can't shop at WalMart because almost everything I flip over in there has a "Made in China" imprint. They won't hurt like they should because we have nearly 20,000,000 illegal aliens with zero loyalty to our country buying that crap within our borders.

Ironic, considering how China suckered Mexico into a loser trade deal only to betray them less than two years later. Give them credit for Rope-A-Dope, with Mexico depending on us (as always) to absorb the damage. Mexico's supplanted population here is helping to perpetuate China's system of Lowest Common Denominator profiteering. Pretty slick for a purported Communist government.

It wouldn't have survived past 1994 without the Clinton Administration's dedicated assistance. Now that the State and Commerce Departments serve China as a matter of policy we're screwed if we don't clean those Departments out and replace them with people beholden to America. Resistance will be high due to the upper class allowing these regimes to buy into them so badly. Tough. Let them take the beating for a change.

[America's Resolve]

Yup. at this point, I'm looking tobecome an executive recruiter, finding American jobs for Americans in the medical industry.

I still firmly believe that I've won the computer wars. I have 20 years worth of skills that not 1 in a million can claim.

I'm dating myself, btu I remember a time when creating jobs for Americans was THE highest priority of both industry and government in this country. Those days are long gone, obviously.

I simply can't understand who industry expects to buy their products or government expects to pay their taxes with all the jobs being exported and H1B's being brought in. We're slitting our throats and every job that is lost by an American is another drop of blood that's being lost from America.

It's just farkin crazy.

[Concentrate]

While your patriotism is laudable, one cannot expect the average citizen to shun foreign made inexpensive products. This is where the government for the people and by the people comes in. There are certain duties delegated to the federal government, which include international trade and tariffs upon foreign goods to protect internal markets. There is nothing anti-American about this at all, as the free traitors would have you believe.

[NewRomeTacitus]

Thanks. I'm not the average citizen. While I've hardly ever pulled more than 12 grand a year you won't find anything in my home made by an enemy of our country. Matter of principle. I'd rather do without than finance our enemies and the traitors who profit through them.

I've got this thing about slavery that really irks me. It just ain't right no matter what form it takes and I can't see helping it along when I can do otherwise.

[neutrino]

While I've hardly ever pulled more than 12 grand a year you won't find anything in my home made by an enemy of our country

My hat is off to you, sir!

[TXBSAFH]

I have been feeling wage pressure for several years now. This is a real and serious issue.

[tm22721]

Not to worry.

The guvmint will just declare a moratorium on mortgage payments as in the late 80s for FHA loans.

BUMP

[An.American.Expatriate]

I won't tell you to look for a Mc-Job.

I WILL tell you that several factors, including the ones you mentioned, play a role in the current IT market.

First and foremost - the boon of the 90's IT market is gone - the Y2K projects, Euro Conversion, etc... will not return. Also, during that time, many major companies (and quite a few small to mid sited ones!) were willing to pay MAJOR money for IT workers. Demand was sky high and supply was limited.

Now that all of that is over, demand has returned to "normal" levels and supply is too high - even when h1b's etc are excluded!

I too suffer under this, albiet in Switzerland. My only recourse was to launch my own company. I am struggling, but I'm still hanging in. My Standard of Living has, of course, taken a beating.

[Huck]

I disagree. The conservative base is not fed up, at least not fed up enough to do anything. I'll even predict we'll elect the same Republican Senators and Reps in 2006, regardless of how far left they may have shifted. You and I maybe fed up, but we are not the majority in the GOP, not by a long shot.

I agree. Reminds me of the old Dylan line:

"You've got a lot a nerve, to say you are my friend. You just want to be on the side that's winning."

[Lazamataz]

Name a country that has more freedom than America

It isn't that cut-and-dried. You cannot say country A is 'more free' than country B.

Freedom has many facets:

• Economic freedom in business (being able to run your business with low taxes and low regulation levels)
• Personal economic freedom (being able to keep your own money and use it as you wish)
• Freedom to travel
• Freedom from surveillance
• Freedom to own guns
• Freedom to engage in social interactions
• Freedom of dress
• Freedom to ingest whatever substances
• Freedom of the vote
• ...and so on.

In some ways, America ranks in the top 10. In others, we are miserably unfree.

[Lazamataz]

Now that all of that is over, demand has returned to "normal" levels and supply is too high - even when h1b's etc are excluded!

The supply is not too high right now. Qualified -- and I mean QUALIFIED -- applicants are rare now, the best have been snapped up. There is a resurgance in programming.

However, the PERCEPTION of what you describe seems to be keeping wages in a downward pressure. Wages are creeping up in contracting, but not by much: From $40/hr to $45/hr, locally. And G-d help you if you are salaried. You are getting an increase in the low single digits.

This time, Bush really *IS* to blame.

[Lazamataz]

I felt a lot of wage pressure in the last 2 years, but there seems to be an upswing in my field.

[bill1952]

Seriously, can you give example of the freedoms that Americans have and Indians do not?

The right to bear arms.

[Pondman88]

Here we go again, bring on the souplines!!!

Well, I got a raise and bonus this year, help wanted signs are popping up like spring flowers, house prices continue to go up, the Fed is raisng interest rates....Yup, its a depression.

[An.American.Expatriate]

I won't argue the Qualified part, as that should be a given in a supply and demand situtation.

I would also agree that there is a resurgence in the programming sector.

BUT, companies can now be stingier than during the boon. Back then, they HAD to pay high wages in order to attract a programmer. Now they can look at all aspects, qualifications, willingness to travel/work long hours etc... for "low" pay - and course, off-shoring.

I wouldn't claim "Bush is at fault". This was something that could easily be foreseen in the 90's but was ignored. Where Bush may have some blame is in the fact that he seems to be doing very little (if anything) to correct the immigration part of the problem (about the only legal thing he could do!)- thus relieving some of the pressure.

I have the same situation here, but without the flood of immigrants and the IT market IS recovering a bit. Unfortunately, due to the general malaise in the EU, the Swiss market hasn't picked up like it should have.

[Serb5150]

I'm currently in IT, and concerned about my future. May I ask what sort of job you're working now?

[Lazamataz]

I'm glad you confirmed my observations. It makes it clear that my years of drug use didn't take such a savage toll. :o)

I have the same situation here, but without the flood of immigrants and the IT market IS recovering a bit. Unfortunately, due to the general malaise in the EU, the Swiss market hasn't picked up like it should have.

Understood. It will always be a little worse in Europe -- and even more so as they start to try to throw off the shackles of encroaching Islam. (Why is it that every 40=50 years, Europe seems to be in another World War????)

In Hotlanta, things are much quicker to respond. It's been rather breathtaking, going from a position of no power to one of moderate power. But even with that power, extracting money isn't easy.

I suspect the money will come, though. Keep this economic situation (low-to-midlevel expansion) for another six months and we should be in a very good position.

As far as students leaving programming -- GOOD! The fewer of them, the better for me.