Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
Thanks, Oorang. We live in the sticks too. I'm debating going back to hospital work (I've had a year and a half off), but I don't know...
bad news ,this could be the jumping the shark point
I queried Dr. Niman about a week or so ago,and he advised one of the universities is conducting its own clinical studies on possible vaccines - instead of waiting for WHO to establish some outdated standard.
He seems quite worried, and given all the data, I can't say I blame him !
Well Judith Anne, I think it's coming our way too. Sooner or later it will be here.
What do I plan on doing? Well, I work with the public and handle their money on a daily basis. There won't be a whole lot I can do to protect myself. Sure the usual wash my hands and face more, but I am sure I'll catch it. Once I have it, I am responsible for minimizing the spread. That means quarentine.
I am trying to picture myself in a mask and latex gloves countng back money to a customer...LOL!
Once we get an efficient human to human transmission of a strain of bird flu, I think we'll be in trouble very quickly.
I don't think we're there yet, simply because we don't have worldwide reports of people being stricken with a deadly flu.
But I'm not sure we'll get any warning. It might be two weeks from now and it might be two years, but I think we've passed the point of no return. It is too widespread in the poultry and wildfowl populations to control at this point, I think.
So somewhere, someplace, it's going to jump species into the next pandemic. But I don't know how you know it until it happens.
I appreciate your input. Thank you!
Thanks, I don't think you're alone in your concern. As a nurse, one of the things I used to do when wearing a mask/gloves was tell patients, "This is to keep you safe from any bugs I might have. You don't need a cold on top of your appendicitis/gall bladder/heart attack/hysterectomy/kidney infection/broken hip/whatever."
If you go at it from "I'm protecting you, my customer, from my germs" it might go over very well. Just a thought.
I'm absolutely sure we will NOT get any warning. The first US cases will be our only warning, just my opinion.
There was some discussion up the thread about possibly starting a "Flu Preparedness" thread. I think that would be a good idea, for these reasons:
1. All relevant information would be in one thread, easy to find, rather than people having to wade through a long thread for the bits and pieces about prepardness.
2. People - either freepers or lurkers, newbies or oldies, who have not been following the Avian Flu news, will have a place they can find easily and quickly. If and when the Avian Flu hits, all of a sudden many, many people will be looking for just the kind of info that would be on that thread.
3. With a dedicated thread, it will be easier for people who have information to find the right place to post it.
We have put together some other basic preparedness info, primarily home remedies for simple medical problems, and basic suvival nutrition. We started writing in case of terrorist attack, but it would possibly useful in any kind of emergency. I saw that there are all kinds of emergency survival food lists, but they mostly involve instant, canned, frozen foods for a few days - expensive and not necessarily good for long term nutrition. So we put together a list of basic survival foods that are natural, cheap, easy to prepare and one can live on for a long time. We have been looking into herbs that boost immune systems, and then there's info about essential oils and their anti-bacterial and anti-viral properties. I know that there are many other knowledgeable freepers who have info that we all would like to read.
How about a separate thread on preparedness?
Who knows Judith Anne. We somehow made it through the SARS incident so I am still holding out some hope that we will escape pandemic here also.
My simple layman's mind agrees with you. Looks like high end 4, low end 5. And keeping in mind that we don't know what the heck is going on in China. If there are a lot of people sick with the A.F. in China, then it could - just could - be the high end of 5 or the very beginning of 6. All depends on what's happening there.
Wouldn't it be thoughtful of them to tell us what's going on?
Gabz was going to start the thread on preparedness, or at least thought so a couple of days ago. I'm pinging you, Gabz, how's that broken ankle? Can you do it?
That's a very important point. Thanks for making it--we need to keep that in mind.
The flu is generally less contagious than what the SARS supercarriers had, but is consistently contagious especially in anything resembling a public place.
That gives me less reason to be optimistic once human to human continuing transmission occurs.
With China gearing up to close labs and stop sending samples and cutting off news, I guess I just don't see them being responsible world citizens, here.
"I think virtually every far eastern country has cases of Avian Flu now. Boxun said there are about 10 varieties that the Chinese have identified, (if Boxun is a good source, and I think it's fairly reliable), some more virulent than others."
I think if you doubled the number of cases it would be a conservative estimate. We have no idea of the number of asymptomatic carriers that are shedding...we know some species seem to do this more than others. In human population it would be important to consider the effects (if any) of OTC medicines on the shedding. Stage 4 to early stage 5 is my guess.
Well, we need to hope and pray it doesn't happen. In all honesty, I have not been keeping up on this. Ignorance is bliss for the short term. I lived, ate and breathed SARS for two months during the outbreak and just about had my will drawn up. I just can't go there again...at least not yet.
So for now, I peek in on this thread once a week, dread flu season and am thankful I have a place up in the mountains of Colorado which is pretty self sufficient and with a decent well.
I think your conservative estimate is likely right--at least double the reported cases....
Thanks.
LOL, I'm not so sure. If I see a retail clerk doing that, I'm going home and hibernate.
Well, I guess you're right. It does sound kind of silly...;-D
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