"I think virtually every far eastern country has cases of Avian Flu now. Boxun said there are about 10 varieties that the Chinese have identified, (if Boxun is a good source, and I think it's fairly reliable), some more virulent than others."
I think if you doubled the number of cases it would be a conservative estimate. We have no idea of the number of asymptomatic carriers that are shedding...we know some species seem to do this more than others. In human population it would be important to consider the effects (if any) of OTC medicines on the shedding. Stage 4 to early stage 5 is my guess.
I think your conservative estimate is likely right--at least double the reported cases....
Thanks.