Avian Flu Surveillance Project

High mortality observed in wild birds in Iran

Information received on 12 October 2005 from Dr Mansour Sayari, Head of Iran Veterinary Organization, Ministry of Jihad-e-Agriculture, Tehran:

Report date: 12 October 2005.

Reason for immediate notification: an emerging disease with significant morbidity or mortality, or zoonotic potential.

A high mortality was observed in wild waterfowl (wild ducks) at Poldasht, coast of Arras, West Azerbaijan province.

No pathological agent has been identified yet. No post-mortem lesions are seen in dead birds; weakness and death are the only evidences.

Date of start of the event: 2 October 2005.

Total number of deaths: 3,673.

Source of outbreak or origin of infection: unknown or inconclusive.

Control measures undertaken:
- quarantine;
- movement control inside the country;
- screening;
- zoning;
- disinfection of infected areas.

Note by the OIE Animal Health Information Department: the negative laboratory tests do not mention for which disease the diagnostic was negative. It is likely to be avian influenza. A confirmation from the Veterinary Services of this country has been requested.

http://www.oie.int/Messages/051012IRN.htm

Thirty dead chickens were found... (Greece)

October 12, 2005

DIMITRIS DIMITRIOU/ANA

Thirty dead chickens were found floating in a lake near the village of Matsouki in Neapoli, the southern Peloponnese, yesterday. Authorities were trying to establish where the birds came from and what caused their deaths.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Nikitas Kakalamanis urged the public not to panic over the possibility of Asian bird flu spreading to Greece.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_politics_100014_12/10/2005_61788

Something tells me we should not trust the euros on this (or anything else for that matter).

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0814408656/103-2159125-6982216?v=glance

for the book referenced in an earlier post. trying to be a little discreet, here...

US mulls federal troops for bird flu quarantine

Oct 12, 3:23 PM (ET)

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Pentagon is looking at the possibility of using federal troops to enforce a quarantine in the event of an outbreak of pandemic bird flu in the United States, a senior official said on Wednesday.

President George W. Bush said last week he would consider using the military to "effect a quarantine" in response to any outbreak of avian influenza, but provided few details.

Bush at the time also suggested he might place National Guard troops, normally commanded by state governors, under federal control as part of the government's response to the "catastrophe" of such a flu pandemic.

Paul McHale, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense, said quarantine law historically has been under the primary jurisdiction of states, not the federal government.

"And my expectation is that any quarantine measures that would be put in place would likely involve a substantial employment of the National Guard, probably under command and control of the governor of an affected state," McHale told a group of reporters.

"However, we are looking at a wide range of contingencies, potentially involving Title 10 forces (federal troops) if a pandemic outbreak of a biological threat were to occur," McHale added.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of birds and infected more than 100 people, killing at least 60 in four Asian nations since late 2003.

Experts fear that the virus, known to pass to humans from birds, could mutate and start to spread easily from person to person, potentially killing millions worldwide. Experts have questioned America's preparedness.

McHale said he believed there would be a clearer understanding within a few weeks of the military role in response to pandemic bird flu as part of a broader federal response. Pentagon officials were meeting on Wednesday to discuss the department's role in a flu pandemic.

LEGAL BARRIERS

One issue that could face the U.S. government in the event of an outbreak is whether or how to cordon off parts of the country to prevent the disease from spreading.

The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, enacted during the post-Civil War reconstruction period, prohibits federal military personnel from taking part in law-enforcement within the United States. But a president can waive the law in an emergency.

National Guard troops under the command of state governors are permitted to perform law enforcement duties, but would not be permitted to do so if they were put under federal control.

McHale noted that the military has been used only under extraordinary circumstances for domestic law enforcement and restoring civil order.

While not specifically referring to enforcing a quarantine, McHale said the Pentagon has active-duty federal military units on alert and deployable at the direction of the president "to deal with occurrences of massive civil disturbance." He did not identify the units.

On the topic of possible domestic attack involving biological, chemical or nuclear weapons, McHale said the government needs "a more robust civilian capability" to respond so the country is not exclusively dependent on the military.

McHale said the Pentagon is working to help make the Department of Homeland Security better able to make strategic plans for natural disasters or domestic attacks involving weapons of mass destruction. The department's Federal Emergency Management Agency was strongly criticized for its slow response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster on the U.S. Gulf Coast in August.
http://reuters.myway.com/article/20051012/2005-10-12T192302Z_01_SCH268992_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-BIRDFLU-USA-PENTAGON-DC.html

Maybe. The information I read was about a 30% infection rate and a 3% fatality. If those rates were seen in the USA today that would be about 100 million infected and 3 million dead in the USA alone. That's bad enough for me. Remember that is in the first wave. The Flu usually comes in several waves until everyone has some immunity to it. We could be talking 2 or 3 years of upheaval those rates kind of make sense. 1918 population was about 100 million 30% was about 30 million and 3% was about 900,000 deaths. The 1918 flu was said to kill about 500,000 so depending on the infectection rate it's close.

This Romanian story keeps bouncing back and forth. Bird Flu or no outbreak of Bird Flu?

The BBC & ABC claims Bird Flu.

Bird flu found in Romanian ducks (BBC, 10-13-05)

"We hope it's a low intensity virus. We are continuing measures to isolate the affected area." Gheorghe Flutur Romanian Agriculture Minister

Bird flu virus detected in Romania (ABC, 10-13-05)

Daily Bird Flu Updates:
http://www.thepoultrysite.com/LatestNews/?AREA=LatestNews&Display=6187

AFP via Yahoo! News - 13th October 2005
EU confirms bird flu found in Romania
BRUSSELS (AFP) - The European Commission said that tests for bird flu in Romania had proved positive and that it planned to ban imports of live birds and poultry products from the country.
"The three EU laboratory experts sent to Romania by the Commission last Monday have confirmed that Avian Influenza virus H5 has been detected in tests on two samples from a chicken and a duck taken in a suspected backyard farm in the Danube delta," the EU commission said in a statement.

NFU - 13th October 2005
Farmers to redouble biosecurity measures to protect against avian influenza
UK - The recent Avian Influenza scares in Romania and Turkey are a reminder to all poultry farmers in the UK they must remain vigilant against any sign of notifiable diseases, the NFU said today.

AFX News Limited via Forbes - 13th October 2005
Indonesian teenager cleared of bird flu dies
JAKARTA - An Indonesian teenager released from hospital earlier this month after being told she had not contracted the deadly bird flu virus has died, a medical official said.
'The woman had tested negative and was declared not infected with avian flu and was accordingly released from hospital on Oct 4,' said Sardikin Giriputro, the deputy director of Jakarta's Sulianti Saroso hospital.

New Straits times - 13th October 2005
All poultry may be culled
KUALA LUMPUR - The worst-case scenario on bird flu would compel the authorities to cull all poultry nationwide or embark on a mammoth vaccination campaign. Veterinary Services Department director-general Datuk Dr Hawari Hussein said either of these would be done if the bird flu spread too rapidly or could not be contained.
He said culling was still the most effective way of containing its spread. Vaccination was an alternative but its success depended on the availability of vaccine.

Thais News - 13th October 2005
Thai PM offers EU in containing bird flu in SEA region
THAILAND - Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has indicated that José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission has expressed approval in Thailand's offer to control bird flu in the South East Asian region. `Thailand has great expertise in this area,' European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told a joint news briefing, thanking him for his country's offer of help.

Thanh Nien Daily - 13th October 2005
Vietnam reports 35 million fowls vaccinated against bird flu
Vietnam has vaccinated some 35 million of the targeted 260 million poultry against bird flu by the end of September, animal health authorities reported Wednesday.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s Animal Health Department said it had registered to import 260 million doses of vaccine for further vaccinations in October and November.

AFP via Yahoo! News - 13th October 2005
Australia gives Indonesia an extra 7.5 million dollars to combat bird flu
Australia gave Indonesia an additional 10 million dollars (7.5 million US) to combat bird flu, as medical authorities in Jakarta announced another suspected death from the virus.
The office of Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, who is on a three-day trip to Indonesia, said the additional funds would bring Australia's avian influenza aid package to the country to 15.5 million dollars.

Reuters - 13th October 2005
Experts call for creating US bird flu czar
WASHINGTON - The United States needs a top official, backed by authority and cash, to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic, experts said on Wednesday.
But the United States, and most other countries, are so badly behind in preparing for disease outbreaks in general that it will take years to catch up, they told a briefing of Congressional staffers.

AFX via Forbes - 13th October 2005
Turkey completes mass poultry cull to combat bird flu
Turkish officials said they had completed the mass slaughter of poultry to combat a bird flu outbreak in this northwestern village, although the area remains quarantined.
'The mass slaughter of animals is complete,' agriculture ministry spokesman Faruk Demirel said, adding that small-scale slaughter was continuing on some farms.

Unison - 13th October 2005
Experts unveil secret bird flu weapon . . . alcohol
IRELAND - At the Swiss headquarters of the World Health Organisation, Britain's chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said that the threat of bird flu was one of ...

Looks more like the BBC can't make up its mind or its a case of disinformation.

Count me in! In the mean time, I'll just sit back and watch the panic set in.

Now in Eastern Europe.

How long till the migratory birds get to the US?

http://www.birdnature.com/flyways.html

North American Flyways and Migration Routes

Thanks for starting this thread, hope it's never needed.

I think it did in the young and healthy(20-40 yrs old). The cytokine storm effect.

Maybe they mean Bulgaria :)

Here's one off Drudge:

Deadly Asian bird flu reaches fringes of Europe

That's my hope. I don't even know what odds to give it, but it isn't small. The experts are clearly worried more today than when this thread was started.

I have too much going in my life right now to have room to worry about this, but I'm not sure I really have that option.

"How long till..."

I saw a dead goose along the side of a highway today....

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1501697/posts

Didn't see this posted. Man, oh, man, the anti-viral drug efficacy thing is getting really murky. Sort of like the fog of war. BTW, following up on earlier posts, I haven't been able to obtain FluMist in my state without a prescription.

Reports of Tamiflu resistance to avian flu based on old data, not new proof

Helen Branswell
Canadian Press

October 8, 2005

TORONTO (CP) - It appears a misunderstanding, not a mutation, is behind recent reports suggesting the H5N1 avian flu strain is developing resistance to the drug Tamiflu.

The professor of pharmacology from Hong Kong University quoted as warning of an emerging resistant strain of the virus says he was citing old data, not new evidence, when he gave an interview last week.

He was trying to urge GlaxoSmithKline to reintroduce an injectable form of their rival flu drug, Relenza. The resulting report suggested Tamiflu was becoming less useful - a claim that was widely repeated.

"My point is to emphasize on the introduction of injectable drugs. But they use a headline 'Resistant H5N1 appears in Vietnam,' " Dr. William Chui, who is also chief of the pharmacy service of Hong Kong's Queen Mary Hospital, said in an interview.

"I'm not the right channel to say that."

Chui says he was citing medical literature, including a recent New England Journal of Medicine review article on human cases of avian influenza that made reference to an H5N1 isolate from Vietnam shown to be partially resistant to oseltamivir, Tamiflu's generic name.

That discovery was made public in mid-May in the report of a meeting of experts the World Health Organization convened in Manila to determine whether the pandemic risk from H5N1 had risen.

When the reports quoting Chui started to circulate, flu experts around the world sent out urgent e-mails trying to find out who had found new evidence of resistance. The flu community keeps close tabs on the efficacy of these important drugs, known as neuraminidase inhibitors.

They came up with a puzzling blank.

Except for that one partially resistant H5N1 isolate from Vietnam, no researchers have reported new discoveries of Tamiflu-resistant viruses isolated from human cases of H5N1, both the WHO and Tamiflu's manufacturer, Hoffman-La Roche confirm.

"There is a network of laboratories that has been set up to follow antiviral resistance among influenza strains," says Michael Perdue, a scientist in the WHO's global influenza program.

"One of the first things they look at (when they get new viral isolates) is the antiviral sensitivity and resistance. And the papers that have been published thus far have shown all the strains to be sensitive."

That doesn't mean there might not be evidence of resistance out there, being kept under wraps by researchers pushing them through the publication pipeline of medical journals.

Still, Perdue thinks word might have gotten around.

"There's no hard and fast rule. But generally people let WHO know information like that. And we have not heard."

Neither has Roche, which has stewed while reports have questioned the value of their drug.

Oseltamivir is one of only two drugs thought to be effective against H5N1; Relenza is the other. Governments around the world have been rushing to stockpile the easier-to-administer Tamiflu as a hedge against a possible pandemic. (Tamiflu is sold in pills; Relenza is inhaled like an asthma drug.)

"We don't have additional (resistance) data so when we see articles like this, we're as perplexed as everyone else," says Paul Brown, a vice-president of Roche Canada and until recently global team leader for Tamiflu.

However, everyone, including Roche, expects some resistance to the drug to develop if it becomes widely used. In fact, studies have shown just that in Japan, the only market to date which has embraced Tamiflu in a serious way for seasonal influenza.

Antiviral researcher Dr. Frederick Hayden of the University of Virginia says a recent study of Japanese children showed about 16 per cent developed resistance to the drug.

"That's one in six. So I would anticipate that in H5N1-infected persons that the frequency would certainly be no less," says Hayden, co-chair of an international network of scientists who monitor for resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors.

But even when resistance develops, evidence suggests it may not spread easily. In the lab, viruses that develop resistance to oseltamivir pay a price; they are less fit than non-resistant viruses.

That suggests it might be difficult for a resistant strain of the virus to emerge and claim dominance over non-resistance strains.

So far the evidence that resistance strains are less fit has been shown only with human flu strains, Hayden says. But studies could and should be done to see if the same holds true with H5N1 viruses, he insists.

http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=81201e24-9e91-4287-833b-9da02ff083ac&page=1