Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Of course, if he stays, you'll talk bad about him as well.
Well DUH. :o)
No I wasn't, I was showing that while you say I am unfree to do certain things, you are also unfree to do others?
Ivan,
I am glad you are reconsidering and hope you will stay. I have only exchanged messages with you a few times either here or on the old Free Britannia site (I was Hornblower there). Every time you have been as nice as you can be.
Furthermore, you have always provided an insight into UK politics that is needed in this forum. Indeed, as this thread shows, you are well loved by the Freeper community.
Don't let a few jerks get you down...
If you go, Godspeed. If you stay, thank you.
God Save the Queen
God Bless the United Kingdom
God Rot and Curse the European Union an all those opposed to Liberty!
-Greenlanterncorps
Glad to see you're going to stick around. I always enjoyed your posts. At times I remember finding the same story in a British paper coming to see if it was posted here at FR and of course you had already got it on here. Anyway, you're one of the posters if I see your name on the post I will read it. Glad you're staying.
I've always appreciated your posts.
Having Scots/Irish roots, your perspective on daily events from that side of the pond has been of interest.
There are @holes on most threads, and it does seem we've had an especial run on 'em since the '04 election.
You've been here long enough (longer than me) to know it's always been cyclical.
But if you can't be dissuaded, most of us will miss you and wish you happy trails . . .
Oh, and saying this doesn't make it so. Get yourselves a Bill of Rights including a right to free speech and possession of arms; ditch the monarchy, the House of Lords, and the Church of England; and tell the EU to shove its "constitution" up its commie red arse and then come talk to me about freedom.
Yes I agree we used to have several "safe" seats in Scotland before there was so much anti English feeling.
I am sorry to see you go. You have been one of my favorite posters.
OTOH A multitude of lawyers in a country is like a great number of physicians, a sign of weakness and malady. - Voltaire
Spiff is not worth any attention. He's like a little boy jumping up down and acting obnoxious while yelling, "Look at me! Look at me!"
It's good to see another British Freeper, we really need your on-the-spot insights. Our 'beloved' MSM shows other countries through such a distorted lens.
I think you misunderstand. It is not a refusal to vote because people are anti-English, it is because the Conservative Party is seen as not caring about Scotland.
An Englishman faces no more bad feeling in Scotland than a Scotsman would get in England.
Good bye.
You are correct. Some people on this board are miserable human beings who attack their own at the drop of the hat. A lot of Canadians Freepers have experienced the flame attacks, also. I for one like to post and contribute to threads about the environment, but I have to be ready for the jerks who call me a troll or DU’er just because I drive a small car.
I hope you can find the strength to shut the dirt bags out, and continue to add your valuable input. Otherwise, thanks for your service.
Your American friend,
Holtz
Nonsense. I am not "unfree" to trade with Cuba. I, and my fellow citizens, through our duly elected government, have chosen to embargo Cuba. The day we change our minds, we will change our laws accordingly.
God Bless you.
Reading subsequent posts between the 2 of you I stand by my comments and further agree with copper72 that we have as much freedom as you apart from gun control which I have mixed feelings about anyway.
That has my vote.
Most of us truly appreciate your efforts and your contributions.
Would it help if we prostrated ourselves and begged?
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