Blair may decide to quit sooner than expected

The Daily Telegraph ^ | May 6, 2005 | Rachel Sylvester

[MadIvan]

Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.

His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.

Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.

Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.

Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.

Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.

"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."

Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.

"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."

However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.

The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.

Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.

These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.

Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.

Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.

Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.

This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.

At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.

Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.

Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.

In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.

[ModelBreaker]

There is one notorious poster on Catholic threads that is like this and has driven many people away or has created such flame-wars that people simply stop participating.

Is that A. A. Cunningham?

[americanbychoice2]

Ivan, I sometimes get the same feeling you have. There are quite a few people who just don't have the international insight some of us (especially you) have.
I always look for your comments and appreciate them, whether I agree with you on a particular subject or not. ( Not too many though)
You had been absent for a while before and I really missed you.
Please reconsider, at least to have me enjoy my visit to FR

[Mister Baredog]

I wish to thank you for your intense contributions to FRee Republic since 9/11 and during the ongoing war. Your postings were amoungst THE MOST INFORMATIVE from your many and varied news sources in the UK and Europe.

Many days I logged in and searched your postings.

YOU WILL BE MISSED

Is RightGoth.com your new hangout?

FReegards
Baredog

[Osage Orange]

I recognize the difference in our countries but I also applaud your nation, and Australia, as our two best friends in the world (maybe our only two true friends).

I will second that..!!

FRegards,

[Colonel_Flagg]

Ivan, I'm genuinely sorry to read this. I do hope you reconsider. Having read your posts for quite a long time on this forum, I know you understand that people who don't understand the "Special Relationship" often lead with uninformed words rather than with their heads.

If you'll accept some unsolicited advice, it seems to me that a decision to be patriotic on an internet message board is as difficult as you decide to make it. No one can ever change your feelings for your country, least of all people you will never meet except in cyberspace. Only you can do that - and we know that will never happen.

My best to you, Ivan. I hope to see you back someday.

CF

[DarkSavant]

Bye Ivan, hope you'll reconsider.

[filbert]

MadIvan, this is sad news.

(I'll pull over my soapbox and hop up.)

Some people forget that on the other end of the Internet connection, there is another living, breathing, thinking, feeling person. Others forget that "power corrupts . . . " Still others forget that you collect more flies with honey than with vinegar.

Bit by bit, I see the "right" slowly losing the high ground, mainly by a slow descent into the tactics of the irresponsible left--personal invective, innuendo, guilt-by-association, and a general holier-than-thou attitude vs. solid and rational argument from a principled position. Not everyone here, mind you, and definitely not all the time, but my perception is that we are slowly turning from reasoned argument to blustery confrontation, and that concerns me.

I don't post on FR often, and for the most part post with tongue firmly in cheek. But I do appreciate all of the thoughtful and informative posts I see here (as well as the more humorous, silly, and flippant ones).

The fact is that I tend to agree with many (but not all) of the positions of the "right." On the other hand, I am constrained from agreeing with many positions generally considered to be on the "left" until some sense of political sanity takes hold over there.

I may or may not agree with your particular opinion. You may try to convince me, and you might succeed, if your argument is good enough. Or, I may decide that life's too short to worry about your issue right now.

Those of you who take Issue XYZ so seriously that you are blinded to everything else would do well to heed the sage words "when you become obsessed by the enemy, you become the enemy."

There is more to life than abortion, immigration, Social Security, judicial nominations, male horse jokes, global warming?, Boeing vs. Airbus, Iraq, North Korea, Ted Kennedy, etc., etc. All have their place, and you're free to think that any of those (or any other issue) is the most important issue in the world today. You need to realize that others do not necessarily hold the same opinion, and this is not simply because they are more ignorant or misguided than you. Everyone has their own priorities. To make headway on your issue, strive to make friends and forge alliances, not create enemies and stiffen resistance.

Those here whose first reactions are to attack and blame anyone who does not instantaneously agree with "their" issue are more disruptive and damaging to their cause than a hundred DUmmies. My reaction to the latter is bemused humor. To the former, just a sad shake of the head.

This is by no means an opus (I'd need to post my own vanity for that) but instead a plea for FR to return to "civil discourse." Maybe I'm shouting against the storm, but I felt the need to give it a try.

So, hopping off of my soapbox, I bid MadIvan farewell and good luck.

[winner3000]

Mad Ivan, we will miss you. I hope for the benefit of this planet that America and England will always be friends. Brave men and women from both countries have shed blood in the cause of freedom. We have seen the relationship stay strong regardless what parties are in power. This should be very encouraging to us.

I hope that once in a while you will post something and tell us how you are doing. Sir, I salute you.

[hoyaloya]

Well that disproves my theory that anyone with any gumption left Europe for America over 100 years ago. Just a joke :-)

Is is outside the realm of rationale thought to believe that certain political elements who have a great deal to gain from the marginalization of this website may bombard this site with irrational posts to annoy and frustrate us?

The explosion of one liner posts over the past 2 years or so has been making me very suspicious for some time.

MadIvan, for years I've been reading and thinking about your posts. In reading this thread I see I am far from alone in saying your insight would be sorely missed if you stopped participating.

[Chode]

don't go away Mad... Ivan 8^)

series, the Catholics get more sh!t thrown at us than anybody else here but i won't quit, just ignore the the silly Continentals cause the rest are with you.

why should you let a few jerks bother you when you see how most feel??? if you do, then THEY WIN!!!

[ohioWfan]

Please DO reconsider! We need your insights around here, and your calm.

You are valued...........even by those of us who don't know you as well as we'd like.

[andyk]

Dang, man. Well, we'll miss ya! I haven't seen any of the posts you're referring to, but I usually try to pass over the tripe. I happen to think you and your countrymen are the most devoted of friends that we have.

[GopherIt]

Were you to leave, and I hope you don't, you must leave with the knowledge that among us are those with utter, boundless respect for your country, its role in the gestation and birth of liberty, its sacrifices of life, treasure and sacred honor that we have witnessed first hand. Know you have been among true friends, and hence, will never be able to leave our hearts.

I believe you have seen in this thread a petition signed by by a most solid cadre of FReepers gathered for one thing: to salute you. We have some of our own gestatin' to do, that's clear. Hope you are there with us.

[tuffydoodle]

"In many ways, this forum has gotten to have an atmosphere akin to high school, in which the girls who wore too much eye makeup just declared themselves popular and started acting like they owned the place. A lot of folks want to blame any sort of bad atmosphere on FR on the newbies, but I think long-standing posters can be just as much to blame, because there gets to be a feeling of entitlement to better treatment. Yes, there are ill-behaved and disruptive newbies. There are also ill-behaved posters who have been here for significant amounts of time and drive well-intentioned new posters away simply for expressing a contrary opinion"

You are indeed wise and verbalized exactly what I was thinking but couldn't express.

[Dog Gone]

somebody immediately posts that it's too bad that Terri can't see the moon but she was murdered.

ROFL, ain't it the truth.

This forum is in need of some repair. We have a lot of new posters who don't understand or respect forum decorum.

We have a whole lot of people, old-timers included, who have forgotten that disagreements should be debated and that it's okay to be persuaded.

The whole point of this forum is to learn, share, and modify perspectives based on the collective wisdom of conservatives with a wide range of backgrounds.

[nunya bidness]

Nevermind slacker.

[A message]

MadIvan,

Your leaving is my loss. You are one of the handful of posters that I would frequently read.

God bless Great Britain, God bless you.

[UnklGene]

Reconsider, Ivan. Don't go! You're needed.
Gene

[Chunga]

Allow me to join the ranks of those asking you to knock it off.