Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
It was just an irrelevant request for me to do what he is unwilling to do himself......and a lot of the whining that he is very good at.
Please rethink. I enjoy your posts and bring alot to this board!!
Best of luck and God Bless.
You have to understand that the idiots on the site, which compose of 5-10%, never hesitate to show their idiocy, whereas we right minded people frankly get tired calling them idiots and therefore don't respond to them, figuring "why bother, there is no changing an ignorant lepord's spots".
We should have stood up for you more Ivan, sorry about that.
This is a joke, right?
We have a valued, longtime poster writing his OPUS. Is this really the thread to continue debating what appears to be a long simmering disagreement?
Ivan is right. It is the jokers who should be cut out. I pos t less too as a result of this action and other positive contributors feel the same.
I really think you need to flesh out your comment, as it leaves loads of room for interesting interpretations.
I haven't seen any post that claim Great Britain is as bad as France. Had I seen such, I doubt I would have wasted my time to call the writer a geopolitical moron. He/she would be that, but there are only so many hours in a day.
That said, you've been one of the most dedicated and thoughtful participants here. If you've decided for reasons sufficient to you, to walk away, then all I say is, "May the wind always be at your back, and may the road rise to meet your feet."
Be well, my friend. And I hope our paths cross again down the road. Keep in touch, if that's what you choose.
All the best.
Congressman Billybob
MI, I hope you reconsider. There are fewer and fewer people on this board that I respect and anticipate posts from. Your insight into Great Britain's politics has been most welcome during the years I have been here.
If you do start posting on another sight, please consider Freepmailing a link. Thanks for all the time you have spent informing us about the goings on in the UK.
Well, I am advising that folks help keep their cohorts in line. I'm really not sure what that advice has to do with leaving the issue there, given that folks seem quite unwilling to heed that advice or acknowledge that such would benefit the tone of the forum.
Too many posters nowadays are using flame wars in a devious manner - they will inflame the debate and then call in the mods to get the other side sanctioned. However, the mods are often smart enough to see through it. It is better, if you see a flame war starting, to call your own side to task. If the other side persists, then there is a reasonable beef to take to the moderators. But the deliberate flame wars need to stop.
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MadIvan, all of us have been through tough times together.
Those of us that know you stand by your side now and will always stand in your defense against the distractors.
Considering this, it will be unfair on your part to consider leaving under the circumstances.
yeah... i know.
Although we've never interacted on FR, if a post was written by Mad Ivan it caught my eye because it usually had a unique rational analysis of a situation in the UK.
FR is harmed by it's own success. Liberals pretending to be conservative here to sow dissent and every whackjob is drawn to FR.
Manners and civility are lacking and it shows.
Thanks for your insight, it will be missed.
Ivan--you were a valuable resource to FreeRepublic and me, especially last night on the election result thread, in helping to get a better understanding of the British political scene. Additionally, your insightful commentary on the world at large has made FR a better place. I hope that you will return one day, as most of us here see Britain as a worthy ally. I have not seen many of these posts, but perhaps some were simply frustrated with the Conservatives' inability to do supremely well last night. Thank you for your contributions to this site, which far outweigh mine, and please reconsider!
He pinged me (out of the blue), and I replied.
I won't continue this irrelevant discussion on this thread about Ivan.
Please refrain from that kind of flame-baiting - the idea is to restore some civility, which is hardly done by calling the other side "Bushbots".
Sorry to see you go Mad Ivan. Liked your posts and thought that conservative goths kinda a cool. Too bad really.
Let it go.
What? Sorry, you can't leave. You're my favorite fellow Dune fan. Don't pay any attention to the morons on the board. A lot of people on this board are and unthinking Roman gallery.
Most of us love Britain and appreciate our great British heritage of language, history, and especially democracy. The US is so very lucky that we began as a British colony.
My comment was a general statement, not a statement in regards to Britain or whatever the current flamewar is about.
I'm just here for the fireworks.
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