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Posted on 05/04/2005 12:42:04 AM PDT by Judith Anne
Welcome to the Marburg Surveillance Project.
This thread will be used for all of the latest Marburg Outbreak News and comments. This is the place to post all comments about the Marburg outbreak, all articles and links to articles about the Marburg outbreak.
We're going to use just one thread instead of having to go from article to article as we have in the past. We'll use this thread as long as we can.
I think it is the second hypothesis. CDC/AMRIID have had the virus for at least two months (since mid-March?) in their labs, so they have to know something.
As to MSF/DWB I may have to open my (sadly too small) checkbook and send them $100 (much as I hate to support anything originally French besides the Croissant).
Money well donated imo.
Kelly opened my eyes to MSF several years ago and I've been impressed ever since...they were the ones I sent my $150 [like yourself my checkbook is also sadly too small for me to have sent more] Tsunami relief donation to and I will continue to support their excellent work.
Official update from WHO, basis for nicolezmomma's yahoo story above. Very little in addition to her post except for the last paragraph:
Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Angola - update 17
6 May 2005
As of 3 May, the Ministry of Health in Angola has reported 308 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. Of these cases, 277 were fatal. In Uige Province, which remains the epicentre of the outbreak, 297 cases, of which 266 have been fatal, were reported. The large increase in the number of reported cases for Uige is the result of retrospective investigation and entry into the database of cases that occurred previously. However, new confirmed cases and deaths continue to be reported in Uige.
Prevention of opportunities for spread of the virus is essential. Procedures and assigned responsibilities for safe infection control at the large provincial hospital in Uige have been agreed on this week by ministry officials, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières. Teams are giving particular attention to screening and admission procedures that prevent suspected cases from being treated on open wards.
To support these efforts, WHO has deployed additional experts in infection control drawn from institutions in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network.
Massive public information campaigns aimed at ending unsafe injections have continued this week.
Five new vehicles have been provided by the Angolan government for use by teams at the outbreak site. This will provide greater mobility to investigate rumours of suspected cases and deaths and to follow contacts.
CREEPY Angpo update of the day:
http://www.angolapress-angop.ao/noticia.asp?ID=339244
Not going to post, only very indirectly related to Virus. Update on new morgue in Luanda's main hospital (the one with the MSF isolation unit).
A public information campaign about what the heck is REALLY going on would be a vast improvement, IMO.
The public information campaigns worry me a bit. One might think that sending people all around w/o protection (check out WHO photos on their site) might act as a vector.
Well if your right then 100% mortality makes for much more alarmist headlines eh?
"SUPERVIRUS OUTBREAK THAT NO ONE SURVIVES!"
Additional evidence of transmission in Bie province:
Isrealis Donate Medicines To Health Ministry
From Angop (english translation theres).
Luanda, 05/06 - A donation made up of various medicines will be made next Tuesday afternoon by the Embassy of Israel and israelis companies in Angola to the Health Ministry (MINSA).
Angop learnt today from a note of the Insraeli diplomatic mission that, the donation are for the provinces of Bié, Huíla and to the "Criança Futuro" children`s project and will be handed over by the Ambassador of Israel in Angola, Bahij Mansour.
There are a couple other Bie references on other threads
-Commission to prevent Marburg setup in Bie
-400 tons of supplies to Bie.
Could all be prevenative, but with Angola who knows.
LOL! A woman after my own heart! Glad you're OK, I was worried...
Speaking of worried, Dr, Benjamin H. IP left Uigie on 4/15 for Las Vegas.
It's been 21 days, the upper limit of the incubation period.
I tried to call regarding his health, but there doesn't seem to be any way to get his phone number.
Any FReepers in the Las Vegas area know how to get a hold of him???
Hi, and welcome back. When you didn't post after the lunch, I seriously wondered if you were snooping around here to tattle on us to the CDC...;-D
Then, it occurred to me--so what? Let the CDC know what we've been able to glean, just from information readily available on the internet, and who knows? Perhaps we can make a contribution to the effort against this dreadful outbreak.
God knows, we would be glad to help in any way we could. Primarily, we are interested in informing ourselves, but certainly we all would be happy to contribute anything we could.
The lack of readily available, accurate information regarding this strain of Marburg is definitely information, in and of itself.
It is either a new strain of heightened lethality that arose in nature, or it is a weaponized strain designed to be 100% fatal. In my mind, either is equally possible.
One thing is for sure--it isn't the same Marburg as the first known outbreak.
According to what I've been able to learn, it can survive on surfaces (and on dirty sheets) for several days in the open air.
Under 10 virions can cause infection--a miniscule amount. Weaponized Marburg in extremely tiny particles can be inhaled into the deepest part of the lungs, according to published information.
Published information indicates a person is not contagious until symptoms appear. The only problem is, early symptoms resemble flu, malaria, and typhoid. And I personally think that a person can be contagious during the prodrome period--the period just before getting frankly sick, when a vague "unwell" feeling predominates (just a SWAG).
I'm putting you on the ping list, and asking the other two who maintain it with me to, as well.
Here's a link to curevents.com, a member has posted the WHO Marburg graph.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=78399#post78399
FWIW, I really think yours is more accurate.
Is that from published info, or from info on this current outbreak? Given the unprecedented genetic stability of this outbreak, and the much higher death rate (at or near 100%!), old info may not apply to this variant of Marburg.
If it really lives for several days in open air, why haven't we seen even more cases? Alternatively, is the region so remote, and the cover-up so complete, that the case count is far higher than we have been told?
Given the fact that Uige has not been decimated, it's my guess/hope that this variant does not do as well when exposed to open air as its earlier cousins. But that is just a guess/hope.
Under 10 virions can cause infection--a miniscule amount. Weaponized Marburg in extremely tiny particles can be inhaled into the deepest part of the lungs, according to published information.
I have seen that in the published data on weaponized Russian Marburg. But that is using silica coated viral particles manufactured for that purpose. Except for the people initially infected in this way, all subsequent infections would be the "old fashioned" way. How much needs to be on your fingers when you rub your eye?
Published information indicates a person is not contagious until symptoms appear. The only problem is, early symptoms resemble flu, malaria, and typhoid. And I personally think that a person can be contagious during the prodrome period--the period just before getting frankly sick, when a vague "unwell" feeling predominates (just a SWAG).
Your SWAG is better than my WAG, but I'll WAG you're right.
But if so, we're back to wondering why the case count is not MUCH higher. And, if you're right, it will be very difficult to stop if it gets loose in Luanda.
I would really like to know how many people are in the Marburg isolation ward in Luanda. And how well their contacts have been traced and monitored.
That's why I qualified my answers, which you clearly picked up on. We just don't have the answers, from this outbreak. I would love to read Dr. Bonino's journal, assuming she had kept one before she died, with her observations...we really know very little about the initial pediatric cases, which could have told us a lot.
One other question you raised, that is interesting...
Given the fact that Uige has not been decimated, it's my guess/hope that this variant does not do as well when exposed to open air as its earlier cousins.
When I read reports from the region, it seems that a lot of the general population is alarmed about this outbreak. So they've heard something...but we're talking well over a million people in Uige province, and several hundred thousand in Uige city. Using 2ndreconmarine's graphed projections, over a thousand should be infected/dying by now. Which may be true. Not a decimation of Uige--yet.
Again, I point to published information--which may or may not pertain to THIS outbreak--that around a third of Marburg cases progress to the hemorrhagic diathesis. It is possible--and I qualify that STRONGLY--that there are people dying from Marburg with no hemorrhaging, who are presumed to be dying from malaria, typhoid, or flu.
such is the case with Varicella.. most contagious just before the outbreak of blisters.
Interesting that when you go to the english version
that article is not visible.
Here is an article from their search engine.
Health Minister Foresees Control Of Marburg
Luanda, 05/05 - Angola`s Health Minister, Sebastião Veloso, Wednesday here predicted the control of Marburg haemorrhagic fever in the Northern Uije Province, in the coming days, after a working visit there, Angop has learnt.
Sebastião Veloso, who left Uije on that day, after a seven-day working visit, said he noticed positive signs which showed that the ilness will be under control.
"This fact is so evident, because for the first time, since the appearance of the sickness, there was not recorded any case, including deaths, over the last 24 hours", he explained.
Meanwhile, the epidemic may be considered as controlled if after 21 days is not recorded any case, and eradicated if verified the same situation in six weeks.
Confident, the Minister said the target has been reached, a fact that represents an alleviation. "We consider that was not in vain the efforts of the national and international communities", underlined that official, who thanks all health technicians for their work to fight the disease.
Over the latest 24 hours, there were not noticed any sign of seriousness. According to the figures, 277 people have died, out of the 308 cases recorded since October 13, 2005.
Northern Uije Province hospital has only one interned patient, admitted two days ago, who is recovering satisfactorily.
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