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Posted on 05/04/2005 12:42:04 AM PDT by Judith Anne
Welcome to the Marburg Surveillance Project.
This thread will be used for all of the latest Marburg Outbreak News and comments. This is the place to post all comments about the Marburg outbreak, all articles and links to articles about the Marburg outbreak.
We're going to use just one thread instead of having to go from article to article as we have in the past. We'll use this thread as long as we can.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_05_27a/en/index.html
Cut out the url to the above.
That ain't good news.
Yep, yep, yep....they are still using ministry of health as a cover for not issuing their own numbers...
...at least two traditional healers dead, well...their doing pretty good if only two have died...maybe WHO, etc. should let them takeover!
Sorry if I seem annoyed, I am !!! This lack of information is ridiculous....
Thanks for the update tdewey10!
Good point. At least 16 doctors/nurses have died...
That's two REPORTED witch doctors dead.
How many really died? Open question...
Only the Shadow knows! At this point all we can do is start making joke about the situation it seems.
I'm always in favor of humor.
I keep thinking about those 4000 sets of bedding handed out earlier, and hoping that doesn't mean 1000 new cases Monday.
We have now seen significant increases in the number of active cases in the last two reports running.
399 - 335 - 5 = 59
A few days ago the number of active cases was 40.
A few days before that the number of active cases was 33.
A few days before that the number of active cases was 26. Moreover, the number of active cases had remained at 26 for several weeks.
The last reported numbers I remember were from the NTY, and were: 376/315. That was 2 days ago. On May 23, the numbers were: 347/315 with 27 active cases.
These new data are fascinating for several reasons. First, if you figure that we have about 30 active cases during the last week, then you would expect 30 additional deaths in a week. However, if you have followed this epidemic, you will know that the numbers never added up. There were no known survivors, but the death count did not increase to account for the number of active cases.
These are the first data that seem to make sense in that regard. The total growth of the epidemic and deaths is properly matched by the number of active cases. All are increasing with the same e-folding time.
It will be interesting to see if the numbers drop with administrative reclassification shortly.
I'm also concerned by the continued findingof non-epidemologically traced sources (e.g. the four cases in Bungo not traceable to Uige).
I think this, and the previous article discussing same, are the strongest support that Marburg is being transmitted not just by human-to-human contact: could be blood-sucking bugs (e.g. fleas), could be some animal (dogs? pigs? cows?)--something that can cover some ground. Bungo is miles north of Uige, IIRC.
Well, I'm surprised.
It looks as though the WHO will be updating by the end of this month, four days away, with numbers well over 400.
Frankly, this restores a little credibility to WHO.
Pinging the list to post 1620, posted by tdewey10, new update from WHO with new numbers.
ack!
I sincerely hope that Angola stops this administrative reclassification BS. The outbreak is continuing, and seems to have spread out.
This is important for the world to know...I really hope someone picks up the Marburg story ball and runs with it.
We now KNOW what happens when Marburg strikes an urban area, rather than a rural one--many more people get sick and die, and the spread is fast.
The world needs to know this.
Thanks for the ping. As 2ndreconmarine posted these may be closer to the reality on the ground there. I remain doubtful though about the overall numbers being released. Has Kelly_2000 posted any more news about the lack of hard analysis by CDC and others?
As always, thanks for the pings, and Amen to your Tagline.
No, Kelly posted to us a couple of days ago that she's gone for a couple of weeks. The last news is that she's in China.
You are certainly welcome.
placemark
And this-from CIDRAP
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/bt/vhf/news/may2705marburg.html
They count 399 cases to date.
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