Marburg Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 4, 2005 | Vanity

[Judith Anne]

Welcome to the Marburg Surveillance Project.

This thread will be used for all of the latest Marburg Outbreak News and comments. This is the place to post all comments about the Marburg outbreak, all articles and links to articles about the Marburg outbreak.

We're going to use just one thread instead of having to go from article to article as we have in the past. We'll use this thread as long as we can.

[little jeremiah]

placemark.

[2ndreconmarine]

Latest Official Numbers

315/347/164 (Dead/Cases/Followed)

Claiming no new cases in last 24 hours.

Active cases have increased.

347-315 = 32 cases, up from 26 just a few days ago.

Total cases increased from 337 (iirc) ==> 347

An increase of 10 cases in the last few days. In order to maintain the number of cases at 26 required 3 new cases per day. Clearly, there have been more. There have been at least 5 - 6 new cases per day, depending on the exact dates of the data.

Of course, they have been administratively reclassifying, so it looks like 2 - 3 new cases per day depending on the exact date of the data.

[Judith Anne]

I don't know if you saw it or not, but there was an article in the past day or so saying that finally, WHO and the Angolan government are STARTING to work together, despite the little "hiccups" (that's the word in the article) between them which had existed up to now.

I'm not surprised that the spread has increased, apparently there was one day without a new reported case.

If the spread is 32, then that means 32 more deaths by the end of next week or sooner. The mortality figures should be over 350 by Memorial day, if I'm figuring right.

[Oorang]

I wonder what the population is for those districts, Etoumbi and Mbomo.

As you can imagine current data is sparse, at least what I could find. But, here is what I could find:

http://www.statoids.com/ucg.html

The link below says "Approximate population for 7 km radius from this point: 251" - this point being Etoumbi.

http://www.fallingrain.com/world/CF/3/Etoumbi.html

The link below states: "In the neighbouring village of Mbomo which has a population of 4,250 inhabitants" for the year 2003.

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/AllDocsByUNID/852534d206bb3933c1256cf50052692f

[Judith Anne]

Then the impact of those deaths is huge, with small populations like that.

Thank you for going to the trouble of finding the information. I appreciate it.

[Oorang]

You're welcome. I just wish I could find some actual news, with actual numbers and information on marburg. *Sigh*

[Judith Anne]

I have a feeling we're out of luck for a while. I just think that Angola has clamped down, and as has been pointed out, that indicates bad news.

[tdewey10]

http://www.msf.fr/site/actu.nsf/actus/marburg230505

Continuing problems for MSF. They've pulled out of Negenge. On the plus side they appear to have controlled the outbreak in Songo.

They report 4 dead/8 new cases on May 15th in Uige. Be interesting to compare those numbers with official numbers.

[EBH]

http://tv.reuters.com/ifr_main.jsp?st=1116987707593&rf=bm&mp=WMP&wmp=1&rm=0&cpf=true&fr=052405_102154_289330cdx1041057ae3cxw30b1&rdm=874320.0991401474

Video with interviews and actual footage of Uige, Angola regarding Marburg outbreak.

[Judith Anne]

Great link, but I'm limping along on dialup, can you summarize it? Also, do you know the date of it?

[UnsinkableMollyBrown]

Angola: Marburg [virus] Cases Baffle Authorities

------------------------------------------------
The number of new cases of people infected with Marburg virus in Angola has declined in the past few days, but the epidemic is still not under control, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting. New cases are still occurring in Uige, the same northern province where the epidemic has been centered since it was first identified on 21 Mar 2005.

In recent weeks the disease invaded several neighborhoods that it had not reached before, said Aphaluck Bhatiasevi, a spokeswoman in Uige for WHO. In addition, she said, in some areas where the virus had been detected before, new cases were seemingly inexplicable, striking people who had not been identified as contacts of previously infected patients. The cases probably did not mean there were new sources of infection, Ms. Bhatiasevi said; more likely, the health workers trying to identify people who had been exposed to the disease did not have complete information.

Within the past 2 weeks or so, for instance, there were 13 deaths in neighborhoods with no obvious links to previous cases. "The outbreak is not over yet," Ms. Bhatiasevi said. She said epidemiologists were investigating the new cases, trying to determine where the victims contracted the disease.

The epidemic in Angola, thought to have begun weeks or months before it was recognized, is the largest on record. As of yesterday, there was a total of 376 suspected or confirmed cases in Uige, including 315 deaths. [Up from the 337 cases and 311 deaths listed by WHO for the whole of Angola on Tue 17 May 2005. - Mod.CP] The disease is spread by contact with body fluids like blood, saliva, or urine, though people do not transmit the virus until they become ill. Those who recover can still transmit the virus sexually for about 3 months. Ms. Bhatiasevi said that because the virus had also been found in breast milk, infected mothers were being advised not to breast-feed. Healthy mothers of infected children were also being advised not to breast-feed, she said, lest the mothers become infected as well.

3 patients with the disease (one child and 2 adults) were being treated yesterday in an isolation unit operated by Doctors without Borders[Medecins sans Frontieres] at the provincial hospital in Uige. Though there is no specific treatment for Marburg, patients are given supportive care like fluids and painkillers, and drugs to treat malaria and other infections that may also be present. Dr. Pedro Palma, a leader of the group's medical team, said: "After 8 weeks of intervention we already have 6 patients who were discharged as survivors. This is very good news."

The source of the outbreak in Angola is not known. Monkeys can be infected and spread the disease to people who hunt or butcher them. [This has been proven for Ebola but not for Marburg virus. - Mod.JW]. Bats are suspected of being carriers, but this has not been proved.

[Oorang]

Tue May 24 16:07:41 2005 Pacific Time

ADVISORY for 5 p.m. Thursday, June 2

Experimental Therapies and Vaccines for Ebola, Marburg Viruses Focus of Academy Meeting; Emerging Infectious Diseases Meeting Scheduled for Thursday, June 2 at 5 p.m.

NEW YORK, May 24 (AScribe Newswire) -- Recent outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus infections in Africa have been characterized by two remarkable features -- they have been unusually sustained and have maintained extremely high fatality rates. These two features have underscored the need to expand our current understanding of these fatal hemorrhagic diseases and to accelerate progress towards protective vaccines and novel therapeutic strategies.

To present news on the latest developments in our understanding of the molecular biology, epidemiology and approaches to vaccine development for these acute hemorrhagic viruses, the New York Academy of Sciences' Emerging Infectious Diseases Discussion Group is sponsoring a meeting, Ebola and Marburg Viruses-Perspective 2005 on Thursday, June 2 at 5 p.m. The event will take place at the New York Academy of Sciences headquarters at 2 East 63rd Street, New York.

Speakers and topics will include:
- Christopher Basler, Mount Sinai School of Medicine: "Antagonism of the Host Interferon Response by Ebola Viruses."
- Daniel Bausch, Tulane University School of Medicine: "Controlling Marburg and Ebola Hemorrhagic Fevers: Where We've Been and Where We Need to Go."
- Thomas Geisbert, United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases: "Countermeasures Against Ebola Virus and Marburg Virus: Advances and Challenges."

For more information, please visit the meetings/conferences section of the nyas.org web site
- - - -

CONTACT: Jennifer Tang, 212-838-0230, x257

http://newswire.ascribe.org/cgi-bin/behold.pl?ascribeid=20050524.140626&time=16%2007%20PDT&year=2005&public=0

[Oorang]

Very interesting article UMollyB. Could you post the source link please? Thanks much.

[UnsinkableMollyBrown]

It's a ProMed email. And, whoops... the article they reference is in the NY Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/24/health/24marb.html

[Oorang]

Thanks very much. I'm just trying to keep track of who is actually putting some news out there. ProMed makes sense. (I won't mention NYT :-))

[IrishRainy]

Two things that jumped out at me after reading that ProMed excerpt -- the spread is 61, NOT 32. Plus, they're advising healthy mothers of "infected children" NOT to breastfeed.

So how many kids HAVE this disease? If it was just a few, why would you even mention those instructions?

BTW, can you add me to the ping list?

[IrishRainy]

Oh, one other thing. I went to the NYT website to view the article, and there's an accompanying picture that really disturbed me. It shows a WHO physician getting a sample from someone "suspected of having Marburg," but there's a long line of people waiting to give samples too. So does this mean THEY'RE all suspected of having Marburg as well?

Holy Moly!

[scott7278]

Bump and Bookmark.

[unseen]

As of yesterday, there was a total of 376 suspected or confirmed cases in Uige, including 315 deaths.

3 patients with the disease (one child and 2 adults) were being treated yesterday in an isolation unit operated by Doctors without Borders[Medecins sans Frontieres] at the provincial hospital in Uige.

My question is this. 376 cases minus 315 deaths = 61 active cases minus 6 discharged = 55 active cases minus the 3 in the hospital = 52 cases. If the 52 cases are not in the Uige hospital where are they? Sounds like the virus has spread a lot farther than Uige. To add a bit more fuel to this theory is this from the same article.

Within the past 2 weeks or so, for instance, there were 13 deaths in neighborhoods with no obvious links to previous cases.

What neighborhoods? Where were these found? Was it in Uige or somewhere else? It seems with the army involved and entire sectors closed off and the number of missing patients from Uige that this thing is spreading like wildfire. It seems to have "jumped" the "firebreaks" that WHO and MSF and Angola have erected. To make matters worse that has SURPRISED the EXPERTS. This virus IS NOT behaving like it should. Governments and Doctors are SCARED . You can sense it in the report. They are trying to say don't worry every thing is fine but the FACT that ALL HELL IS BREAKING LOOSE in Angola just seeps out in the story.

Thoughts?

[AnimalLover]

BUMP