Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Oil falls near $49 as U.S. supplies swell ($49.11/bbl)
Reuters ^ | May 2, 2005

Posted on 05/02/2005 3:18:09 AM PDT by RWR8189

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday, hovering at a 10-week low just above the $49 mark as higher OPEC supply and swelling crude stocks in the United States weighed on the market.

U.S. light crude dropped to an intraday low of $49.05 a barrel, the lowest since Feb. 22 and almost 16 percent below the record $58.28 struck on April 4.

At 0810 GMT, U.S. crude was 52 cents down at $49.20. Markets in Singapore and London were closed for a public holiday.

"It's a split market for the time being. Short term it's definitely weak if you look at stocks and OPEC production," said Tony Nunan at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.

"But medium term, three to six months out, it looks like supply could be really tight."

Prices came under selling pressure last week as U.S. crude stocks jumped by a surprising 5.5 million barrels as imports into the world's biggest comsumer surged to almost 10.9 million barrels per day (bpd), the third-highest weekly volume on record.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pledged to increase supplies to cool prices down to below $50 a barrel, which has helped to build U.S. crude stockpiles to the highest level since mid-2002.

The cartel has an official production ceiling of 27.5 million barrels per day (bpd), excluding Iraq.

"Since our last meeting in Isfahan (in mid-March) until now, there is 2 million that has been added to the market," OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said on Monday.

"When we were in Isfahan ... the (OPEC 10) production was 27.7 million and now our real production is 29.7 million."

Including Iraqi production, OPEC's current output would beat levels of over 30 million bpd pumped late last year that took OPEC supply to 25-year highs.

Sheikh Ahmad had said the cartel would add 500,000 bpd of fresh supplies to world oil markets starting from May. But he said "by numbers, we already have more than 500,000 of real production in the market."    

OPEC, which controls half the world's crude exports, meets again on June 15 in Vienna to chart production strategy for the second half of the year.

Most of the 10 OPEC members with quotas -- Iraq is excluded -- are now producing at full tilt as the exporter group seeks to encourage stockbuilding in the coming months to create a buffer for strong demand later this year.

But dealers remain concerned over a potential gasoline supply crunch in the peak-demand summer months or a shortage of heating fuel toward the end of the year as the northern hemisphere heads into winter.

Some analysts worry that high commodity prices are starting to dent world economic growth by fueling inflation and prompting a rising trend in global interest rates.

The U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years during the first quarter -- an annual rate of 3.1 percent -- fanning concerns of a possible slowdown in oil demand growth.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: brent; cartel; crude; crudeoil; energyprices; funds; gas; gasoline; hedgefunds; lightsweetcrude; middleeast; northsea; nymex; oil; oilcartel; oilinventory; opec; speculation; speculators; supply; wti
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-57 next last
To: biblewonk
There IS a shortage of refinery capacity. And you're wrong about the refiners too. Every refiner wants more refinery capacity for itself, but they all oppose additional refineries for any of their competitors. It's a microeconomic phenomenon.
21 posted on 05/02/2005 6:12:45 AM PDT by Petronski (Pope Benedict XVI: A German Shepherd on the Throne of Peter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Petronski
There IS a shortage of refinery capacity. And you're wrong about the refiners too. Every refiner wants more refinery capacity for itself, but they all oppose additional refineries for any of their competitors. It's a microeconomic phenomenon.

Even if you managed to "prove" they want more by finding some quote printed somewhere I would still know it not to be true. It is the same as confined electricity producers. They hate peaks becasue they have to build to supply peak power. Doing that kills profits and it would be much better for them to simply throttle usage via price, as you see done with gas prices.

22 posted on 05/02/2005 6:21:04 AM PDT by biblewonk (John 2:4 "Woman, what does your concern have to do with Me?...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: biblewonk

I don't think you've studied enough economics to understand the explanation, but thanks for trying.


23 posted on 05/02/2005 6:22:17 AM PDT by Petronski (Pope Benedict XVI: A German Shepherd on the Throne of Peter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: RWR8189
Let's see; price/bbl down 20% over the last few weeks. Prices at the pump still on the rise

Appears that the at pump price does not correlate with the on market price.

I know there is a lag; but why is the lag in the downward trend a lot longer than in the upward trend?

Can't be a case of price gouging can it?

I assume we will all be enjoying a 40 cent reduction (per gallon) in prices in the near future.....NOT
24 posted on 05/02/2005 6:28:53 AM PDT by PigRigger (Send donations to http://www.AdoptAPlatoon.org)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Petronski

I don't think you realize how much it hurts profits to build a big refinery or a new power plant to satisfy peaks.


25 posted on 05/02/2005 6:31:44 AM PDT by biblewonk (John 2:4 "Woman, what does your concern have to do with Me?...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: biblewonk

If it was an anti-Catholic refinery ringed with windmills, you'd be all for it.


26 posted on 05/02/2005 6:34:19 AM PDT by Petronski (Pope Benedict XVI: A German Shepherd on the Throne of Peter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Petronski

Not to change the subject or anything.


27 posted on 05/02/2005 6:39:22 AM PDT by biblewonk (John 2:4 "Woman, what does your concern have to do with Me?...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: DevSix

Thank you for your reply. I did not suggest we were near gas rationing, but rather, I was trying to point out that a major crisis situation, like gas rationing, would be required to overcome the combined resistance fromNIMBY types and the environmentalists so new refinery capacity and nuclear power generators could be built. The desire for more energy production has yet to become strong enough to overcome resistance by its opposition. Even the Dems are beginning to grumble objections to Bush's plans for using closed military bases without even looking at any specific plans.


28 posted on 05/02/2005 6:39:22 AM PDT by doc30 (Democrats are to morals what and Etch-A-Sketch is to Art.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: biblewonk

I'm not changing the subject. I've already told you, I'm not going to provide you the education you'd need to understand why you're wrong. Not for free anyway.


29 posted on 05/02/2005 6:40:28 AM PDT by Petronski (Pope Benedict XVI: A German Shepherd on the Throne of Peter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Petronski

You are nice and arrogant, just like a good freeper should be.


30 posted on 05/02/2005 6:47:36 AM PDT by biblewonk (John 2:4 "Woman, what does your concern have to do with Me?...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: biblewonk

I am a realist.


31 posted on 05/02/2005 6:53:57 AM PDT by Petronski (Pope Benedict XVI: A German Shepherd on the Throne of Peter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: chronic_loser
"Post for us how long it takes for a barrel of crude to be processed into its various components, specifically unleaded gasoline, and then try posting that comment again."

That's all well and good, but I own a business and have an account with a station down the street. I've always wondered how as soon as oil prices jump, and they had almost daily for a couple of mo's, gas prices go up that day. When crude drops it takes weeks for prices to fall, relative to the price of crude.
32 posted on 05/02/2005 6:54:18 AM PDT by saleman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: chronic_loser

FYI; About four hours in a modern refinery.


33 posted on 05/02/2005 7:01:59 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: sgtbono2002
Well, I read on a forum about a month ago that crude oil may be down at $ 35 pb by the end of the summer, but, even if the crude price in coming down, there is a lag time involved.
For the summer months, even though the crude prices have come down, the summer demand will keep the pump prices up until at the end of summer.
When we see the price of crude oil, thats the price of the oil before it goes to any refinement, there is also speculation price added into the price of the crude oil ( or more to the truth, the fear factor added into the price ) ( Yes, we even pay for oil buyers fear ).
I would take a good guess, that the pump prices will be down at $ 1.80 - $ 1.90 pg in October.
34 posted on 05/02/2005 7:29:03 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM 53 : 1 The ( FOOL ) hath said in his heart , There is no GOD .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kittymyrib
I am already cutting down on any unnecessary driving, and I am using what ever trips I make in my car to get my errands done, shopping, and visiting family, all in one trip.
I really don't like car pooling to work, but, I try to car pool with my mom and family if they need to go to the store.
The one wasteful attitude us Americans have had ever since the car has been around, is, personal freedom, and only one person driving a car, but, we need to adopted and attitude to save fuel and money, and use what ever trips we make more efficiently.
Even if we are to use the car and gas just for pleasure driving, try to bring more people along to save on fuel, and use that time out in the car to do other things other than pleasure driving.
Until we can develop a alternative new fuel source that has unlimited supply, we can say good bye to the days were we can just hop in the car alone, and just drive around.
35 posted on 05/02/2005 7:39:42 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM 53 : 1 The ( FOOL ) hath said in his heart , There is no GOD .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: leadpenny

Alright maybe i got alittle carried away with "gimme" but i would sure like to see some new technologies enter into the market that would either reduce or eliminate the need for oil. I suppose though i'm just a dreamer.


36 posted on 05/02/2005 7:43:06 AM PDT by IronChefSakai (Life, Liberty, and Limited Government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: sgtbono2002

Prices at the pump always seem to go up faster than they come down. In other words, a $5 upward spike in crude prices will be reflected within days as a similar spike at the pump. A $5 downward spike in crude will result in a gradual drift downward over a period of weeks.


37 posted on 05/02/2005 7:44:49 AM PDT by Fresh Wind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: biblewonk

It may be true but something needs to be done about it. I honestly doubt that in the 100+ years of using oil as a primary fuel source that someone out there hasnt developed more energy efficient technologies that would greatly improve not only the environment but be fairly priced. I suppose a declining dollar does play a role in this situation but my ultimate utopian dream would to live in an america that was loosed from its dependence on foreign oil (i imagine everyone else would like the same too).


38 posted on 05/02/2005 7:47:28 AM PDT by IronChefSakai (Life, Liberty, and Limited Government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: IronChefSakai

I agree with you on that. The thing we have to remember is that those "new technologies" will only come about in market-driven, capitalistic systems. I just hope the US will continue to be one of those countries.


39 posted on 05/02/2005 7:49:29 AM PDT by leadpenny
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: leadpenny

Most certainly. My only concern is (consider it a conspiracy theory if you will) that there are certain forces in play out there that would not like to have oil disappear. I've done alot of reading in different scientific magazines on this topic. Why, Nikola Tesla, the man who really invented the light bulb (not edison), the radio (not marconi), the transformer (making Westing house an Energy Giant), and other things, devised a way to transmit power through the air by supercharging the upper atmosphere with a Tesla Coil, causing the earth to act like a capacitor. With this stored energy, all he did was stick some sort of conductive rod into a car he had built during the early 1900's and was able to drive around at speeds up to 90 mph with no onboard fuel supply! Its a shame though after his death all of his records and inventions were confiscated by the government. We should scientifically be atleast 50 or more years ahead of where we are now in terms of the energy issues we face.


40 posted on 05/02/2005 7:58:24 AM PDT by IronChefSakai (Life, Liberty, and Limited Government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-57 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson