Posted on 04/17/2005 8:25:09 AM PDT by SmithL
West Virginians know why Democrats brought in Barack Obama to raise money for Bob Byrd's bid for a ninth term.
Byrd is acting scared.
He is a legend. He never won a Senate race by less than 30 points. West Virginians put him right up there with Sears and Carter's liver pills.
But times change, and whatever my disagreements with Byrd may be, he is a masterful politician.
Byrd taught Ted Kennedy how to count votes in a 1971 upset over the No. 2 post in the Senate. Kennedy miscalculated.
Byrd continues counting. He might see himself falling a few votes short this time.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee did a telephone poll of 500 likely voters on March 15-16 and found Republican Congresswoman Shelley Capito is within 10 points of Byrd.
Byrd was ahead 52 percent to 42. The margin of error is 4.3 percent, meaning that in 19 out of 20 cases, the numbers for the two would fall between 48 and 56 for Byrd and 38 and 46 for Capito.
The days of the 30-point wins may have passed.
Now that is one poll, by Republicans no less. Democrats are not releasing their poll results, but their reaction is curious. They sent in a rookie senator to raise money for their longest-serving senator.
Shouldn't that be the other way around?
"In 2006, Senator Byrd will be the target of Republicans because he stands up for what he believes," Obama said in a computer message to members of MoveOn.org.
In reaching out to the far left for help, Byrd is not only going where the money is, he goes where his political heart is.
Calling for help this early looks like panic. Well, Republicans did knock off the Senate Democratic leader, Tom Daschle, last year.
But Republicans tried to target Byrd for defeat when he was Senate leader in 1982 by running Cleve Benedict against him. Bringing up Byrd's Ku Klux Klan past failed as miserably then as it did in his first congressional race in 1952.
Byrd taught Republicans, too, how to count votes.
Democrats hold 17 of the Senate seats up for grabs next year. West Virginia is not yet on the Republicans' list of top 10 targets -- once bitten and all that.
Hiram Lewis is the first announced candidate. He announced on a Saturday afternoon, not a good time to get coverage -- particularly when it is the last day of the Legislature. The only thing worse would be if WVU were playing a football game.
Lewis also is treasurer of the state Republican Party, which is like holding a ticket for the Titanic's return trip. The party is broke.
A poor Republican outgunned 2-to-1 in voter registrations hardly should pose a threat to an eight-term senator with more than 30 public projects bearing his name.
But Byrd knows how to count votes. He knows that unknown Brent Benjamin beat Warren McGraw by 47,000 votes, the first time a Republican knocked off an incumbent Democratic statewide officeholder since before the Great Depression.
Byrd also knows that Benjamin won thanks to an independent campaign financed by coal magnate Don Blankenship.
Byrd knows that Lewis drafted off that campaign to come within 6,000 votes of toppling the other McGraw brother on the ballot, despite no money, no name recognition and no particular skill in campaigning.
If a name like McGraw can struggle against two unknowns, so can the name Byrd.
Republican Betty Ireland beat his fellow Democratic legend, Ken Hechler, by 29,000 votes.
Hechler, 90, said his age beat him. Hechler said too many people over 65 thought he was too old to serve.
Byrd turns 88 this year. He has never lost an election.
Capito may be within 10 points of breaking that streak.
I believe I read this same article (only the names have changed) about two years before Strom won his last Senate race in SC.
Byrd should have been in an assisted care facility years ago.
Byrd's health is the unknown factor in the race. Remember, the campaing isn't in earnest for another 16 months. At his age, a lot can happen. Older people tend to fail very fast. Statistically, he's about a 40% chance NOT to make it to the next election. If you watch him on the Senate floor, over the last year, his physical abilities have slowed a great deal. The palsy is much more pronounced, and he takes these very long, almost painful pauses in his speeches. One wonders if his faculties are abandoning him. I'm not disparaging Byrd per se, I hope to make it to his age..but it is a fact of life. Look at what happened to Bunning in 2004. He didn't seem "OK" in a few campaing appearances,a nd he almost lost a very safe seat.
Sen. Byrd warned: "There are white niggers. I've seen a lot of white niggers in my time. I'm going to use that word. We just need to work together to make our country a better country, and I'd just as soon quit talking about it so much."
Sen. Byrd was a "Kleagle" -- an official recruiter who signed up members for $10 a head. He said he joined because it "offered excitement" and because the Klan was an "effective force" in "promoting traditional American values." Nothing like the thrill of gathering 'round a midnight bonfire, roasting s'mores, tying nooses, and promoting white supremacy with a bunch of your hooded friends.
If this was a Republican we would never hear the end of it.
First Daschle... then "Sheets" Byrd... yum yum!
I don't wish SHeets any harm, but I don't wish him re-election either.
He is pro gun,pro life,and an Iraq War Vet.
He came within 5,900 votes statewide of knocking off the Attorney General last year.He did that by raising less than 20,000 bucks and spending most of the year in Iraq.
Capito is a self serving RINO who wouldnt even show up to support President Bush when he was promoting his SS plan in HER District.
Winning elections against GOP candidates sent over from the "Bum of The Month Club" was fine in years gone by. The ratmedia was able to lie for the kleagle and the state had not held its nose and jumped into the GOP pool. The war is popular in W.V. the kleagle is on the wrong side of that one. Move-on is not popular in W.V. but sheets is a big hero to move-on.
Now comes a war hero to challenge the old klansman. We heard the same predictions of GOP failure when Thune went after dash-hole. Sheets goes down and it won't even be close.
I would surely hope that in this new era of internet and FOX news that Byrd would go down in defeat as the out-of-touch liberal democrat.
GO HIRAM!
I am embarassed to tell Republican friends that I live in this state because of him. I can't believe the people in this state continue to vote for him.
I would LOVE to see that old coot go!
WOOHOO! Go Capito!
Maybe I should rephrase that. GO ANYBODY!
Yes, Capito is a RINO and she is more liberal than the Democrat governor of WV...Hiram is the right candidate to run against Byrd - He will make an excellent Senator because he is more in touch with West Virginians.
Thanks for getting that out there....
KKK Byrd needs to come clean about how many lynchings and cross burnings he participated in.
Sorry, I cant name the first ten.
Reagans 11th Condiment,ROFLOL!!!!!!!You really had me going there.
LOL, welcome to Free Republic West Virginian 4 Life!
I noticed that you joined the same day that you posted this so as a courtesy, I will tell you what "freeping" is about. This is a forum where conservative R's and moderate R's debate the issues out - in other words, we call a spade a spade when we are distinguishing particulars.
As it concerns candidates, we talk freely and openly about candidate stances on specific issues. Because you are new to FR, it may not be clear that we (or I or whoever) are not "attacking" a candidate when we call them a RINO - we are merely characterizing where they are on social issues.
SMC is a pro-choice Republican (she is called pro-choice by statewide talk radio dj Hoppy Kercheval and doesn't call in crying about it) - and I called her a RINO because the national party platform is about promoting life. I have nothing against her personally. I am not attacking her when I distinguish her by saying that the Democrat Governor is more conservative than she.
These are political FACTS that the rest of the forum deserves to know if we are to maintain a healthy debate.
As a conservative, I just don't think those truths will make a good race in the Fall of 06 - two pro-choice candidates seeking the Senate seat in a pro-life state? That's why I am not for SMC for Senate and I am backing the announced candidate Hiram Lewis, who is ardently pro-life!
For other interesting facts about FR, you are free to email me privately (so as not to embarrass yourself).
Cheers!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.