Labour Heading for Victory - Polls

Press Association ^ | Saturday April 16

[West Coast Conservative]

Labour is heading for a third General Election victory, according to a clutch of recently-published polls.

But the projected margin of Tony Blair's victory varied as pollsters put his lead over the Tories at anywhere between one and 10%.

According to a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, Michael Howard has narrowed the gap to just a single point, with Labour on 36%, the Tories on 35% and the Liberal Democrats on 23%.

If repeated on May 5, this would give Tony Blair a majority of nearly 60 seats.

An ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph found Mr Blair was heading for another landslide victory and a majority of 158. That survey puts Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 30% and the Lib Dems on 22%.

If that result was repeated in the election, shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin, shadow home secretary David Davis and shadow education secretary Tim Collins would all lose their seats to the Liberal Democrats, the paper said.

The Conservatives would win just one seat from Labour and end up with 155 MPs, 10 fewer than in 2001.

An ICM poll for the News of the World of key marginal seats also found Labour on course for a landslide victory, this time with a majority of 152 MPs.

That poll found that the swing to the Conservatives in 93 constituencies where they were run a close second by Labour in 2001 was only 1%.

Meanwhile, a poll for the Independent on Sunday found Labour's lead would double if Gordon Brown became leader. Asked who they intend to vote for, 40% said Labour, 34% Conservative and 20% Lib Dem.

But asked how they would vote if the Chancellor took over from Mr Blair, support for Labour rose to 45%, the Tories fell three points to 31% and the Lib Dems dropped four to 16%.

[traviskicks]

I guess Britian learned nothing from the 50s.

[Dont Mention the War]

If there were no LibDems, where would that 22% go? I presume it would all go to Labour, but British politics is odd enough that I figured I should ask to be sure.

The thought of liberals beating conservatives 62% to 30% though ... *shudder*

[Blackyce]

The Liberal-Democrats used to be considered Centrists, but Blair has moved Labour closer to the Center so many consider the Lib0Dems to be leftists. Basically they're what you'd get if you lopped off the RINOs and DINOs and put them all in the same party. Not extreme, but disgusting in its own way.

[Owen]

While Labour is liberal and not the natural ally of US conservatives, there is simply no way I would ever backstab a man who stood with GW Bush and endured the overwhelming pressures to abandon principle and risk Iraq's becoming a horrible threat.

There is two important entries in the dictionary. One is for the word "resolve" and beside that word there is a picture of GW Bush. The other is for the word "stalwart" and beside that is a picture of Tony Blair.

There has seldom been a foreign leader more deserving of support from right thinking Americans. In fact, maybe never.

[Jorge]

....there is simply no way I would ever backstab a man who stood with GW Bush and endured the overwhelming pressures to abandon principle and risk Iraq's becoming a horrible threat.

Agreed. I hope Blair wins simply because on the world stage it will be seen as another confirmation of Bush's Iraq policy.
Which would be only right.

[mh8782]

I'm pretty sure that most people who vote for the Labour Party will have been opposed to the war. I just think most Brits don't view the War on Terror/Iraq as very important, and their concern for the economy and education will override their opposition to the war.

It'd be difficult to see a Labour victory as a vindication of George Bush in any way.