ISLAMABAD - Both Pakistani and US intelligence believe that they are hot on the heels of Osama bin Laden, after his trail went cold months ago.
"Both the US and concerned Pakistani authorities are positive that in the coming days we shall be around Osama bin Laden," a senior Pakistani official told Asia Times Online in an exclusive interview, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The potential breakthrough in the hunt for bin Laden follows the arrest of al-Qaeda operative Abu Faraj al-Libbi in Pakistan last week, and an important lead he divulged during interrogation. Abu Faraj was interrogated by various agencies, including Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, Britain's MI6 and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation.
This is according to the Pakistani official, who was assigned by Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf - the target of two assassination attempts allegedly masterminded by Abu Faraj - to coordinate and oversee investigations involving recent al-Qaeda detainees in Pakistan.
"The arrest of al-Libbi has only one significance for Pakistan, and that is that he was involved in assassination plots on Musharraf. Apparently there is no way that we will get Osama bin Laden through al-Libbi. MI6 also interrogated al-Libbi separately, and they are also of this opinion, that al-Libbi is little more than a foot soldier and no way eligible to be named as an operational chief. However, US interrogators have a different opinion and they call al-Libbi the catch of the year," the official said.
"Nevertheless," said the official, "the arrest cannot be down-played as insignificant. During interrogation, al-Libbi pointed [out] Bajur Agency, a tribal area situated in North West Frontier Province, where we found an al-Qaeda sanctuary and arrested many important operatives, including an Uzbek."
Despite repeated questioning from Asia Times Online, the official refused to say whether the Uzbek was the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Tahir Yaldevish, who has been widely reported to have been seen in Pakistan's tribal areas. "This is a state secret," the official said.
"Neither will I tell you his name nor give you any hint, but it is true that there is big 'head money' on him, and as a result of interrogations so far we are quite sure that through him we will be getting Osama bin Laden, or at least we will be around his sanctuary and be able to track his area of rotation. At present, we are completely in the dark."
The official believes that a breakthrough will come soon, but this carries problems. "After that [bin Laden's apprehension] a new debate will start on whether Osama should be arrested in Pakistan's tribal areas or not," said the official.
"I am not part of any strategic community, but my political acumen suggests that in the present drive we will find Osama bin Laden in our tribal areas, and I am sure we will soon ... we should try to push him to the other side of the border and then let US troops arrest him. He should not be arrested by or in Pakistan. Because if that happens, I tell you that the Pakistan army will lose its honor among the masses forever, and at the same time there would be retaliation against the government beyond our comprehension, and in that process anything is possible, real terrorism, bloodshed and even revolution," he continued.
Recalling his experience in dealing with the interrogation of the Uzbek, the official maintained that it had been "truly incredible".
"You can differ in ideologies, but it is difficult not to be impressed by conviction. We are politicians - compromise, retreat and lies are part of our business, but believe me, I passed one hour with that Uzbek and I admitted to myself some guilt - his unbreakable conviction for his cause was the reason.
"He was blindfolded, and when an interrogator served him a glass of water, he said, 'Make sure that it is [served] with the right hand, and not the left hand.' [as per Muslim custom] He gave a full lecture on their cause, and said that he had no regrets that he had joined al-Qaeda. He even recognized me from my voice, as he said that he had often heard me on television, and advised that I should take care as soon everybody 'would be accountable before Allah'.
"I am the person who is monitoring things very closely, and I see the arrest of bin Laden not very far away, this is the same opinion of the US authorities following al-Libbi's arrest. But whether it will bury extremism once and for all, or spark it, is a different debate," the Pakistani functionary commented.
"This is the biggest protest campaign in Afghanistan since the ouster of the Taliban regime [in 2001]. This is bloody, widespread and countrywide.This also shows that they are fed up with the United States and they just needed a spark to vent their feelings."
- Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Pakistani journalist who is considered an authority on the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, on May 12.
Yusufzai was talking about the violent anti-US and anti-Hamid Karzai demonstrations sweeping across Afghanistan since May 10, in protest against the alleged desecration of the Holy Koran by US guards at the Guantanamo Bay camp in Cuba, where about 500 Afghans, Pakistanis and other Muslims have been detained by the US authorities without trial and without giving them any right of access to human-rights organizations.
The demonstrations, often culminating in violence, which started at Jalalabad near the Pakistan border, have since spread to the northern provinces of Parwan, Kapisa and Takhar, Laghman in the east, Logar and Khost in the southeast and the southern province of Kandahar. It also spread to Kabul itself on May 12. According to the latest reports, 10 out of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan have been affected by the demonstrations and the resulting violence. The anger of the demonstrators has been directed not only against the US and President Karzai of Afghanistan, but also against Pakistan and the United Nations and Western non-governmental organizations functioning from Afghanistan. Their offices have been attacked, causing considerable property damage everywhere.
Though no fatalities have been inflicted on the security forces by the demonstrators, seven civilians have so far been killed and over 80 injured as a result of firing by Afghan and American security forces to disperse the demonstrators. Reports of the demonstrations received from several towns indicate the following common features:
The students spearheaded the demonstrations, in which a large number of educated people participated. The demonstrations were not spontaneous. They had been well-prepared, and were well organized and well orchestrated. Groups of students went from town to town instigating the local students to take to the streets. The demonstrators were not armed and confined their protests to shouting anti-US and anti-Karzai slogans, burning American and Pakistani flags and effigies of President George W Bush, Karzai and Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf and attacking properties like buildings and vehicles.
The demonstrations were not instigated by the Taliban or the Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar or al-Qaeda. However, elements from the Taliban and the Hizb, who were taken by pleasant surprise by the students taking to the streets, subsequently joined them.
Many members of the police and the newly-raised Afghan army showed sympathy for the demonstrators and were reluctant to use force against them when ordered to do so by their senior officers.
Reports from Afghan sources indicate that the demonstrations have been organized by the Hizbut Tehrir (HT) and not by the Taliban, the Hizb or al-Qaeda. While one was aware of some HT activities in the student community in Afghanistan, the extent of its penetration not only in the student community, but also in the Afghan security forces, has come as a surprise.
In their preoccupation with fighting their so-called "war against al-Qaeda", the Taliban and the Hizb, American intelligence agencies and security forces seem to have remained oblivious of the subterranean activities of the HT, and have consequently been taken totally by surprise.
I'll have to wait to see it before commenting further... good read though. I hope the optimism is rewarded this time around.
ON THE NET...
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The Muslim custom is to use the left hand as toilet paper.
