Never underestimate the power of the Fiberals in the Greater Toronto Area. Those are 40 seats (the rural periphery doesn't count) that are almost all universally Liberal and no poll suggests that will change, especially in the 416 area code.
The Conservatives need to focus on the rest of Ontario (including Northern Ontario - play the gun registry card?) and try to get as many of those 65 seats as they can. Then, if things go well, they should try to penetrate into the 905 area around Toronto.
I think even with the AdScam those GTA seats will not go away from the Liberals. That area is heavily 3rd world immigrant and they expect this sort of things from politicians. As long as the ethnic groups get federal money to fund their "ethnic dance troups" and "community halls" they will stick with the Liberals. Not even Paul Martin pulling a Micheal Jackson red handed would change that. No Joke.
I don't know anything about Canada politics. But one thing I have learned, in part from Rush: the longterm war of politics is the battle of educating voters to overcome misinformation. In the long run, all the short term manueverings will mean little, if anything. Anything that speeds up the education process is ideal. Anything that hampers that process is the greatest danger to a republic.