Posted on 04/07/2005 11:43:22 PM PDT by neverdem
Nelson Ching for The New York Times
Chinese Navy sailors took part in a welcoming ceremony for the flagship of the American Seventh Fleet at a port call last month in Zhanjiang, China. A buildup by China's navy presents new concerns at the Pentagon.
ZHANJIANG, China - At a time when the American military is consumed with operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, global terrorism and the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, China is presenting a new and strategically different security concern to America, as well as to Japan and Taiwan, in the western Pacific, Pentagon and military officials say.
China, these officials say, has smartly analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the American military and has focused its growing defense spending on weapons systems that could exploit the perceived American weaknesses in case the United States ever needs to respond to fighting in Taiwan.
A decade ago, American military planners dismissed the threat of a Chinese attack against Taiwan as a 100-mile infantry swim. The Pentagon now believes that China has purchased or built enough amphibious assault ships, submarines, fighter jets and short-range missiles to pose an immediate threat to Taiwan and to any American force that might come to Taiwan's aid.
In the worst case in a Taiwan crisis, Pentagon officials say that any delay in American aircraft carriers reaching the island would mean that the United States would initially depend on fighter jets and bombers based on Guam and Okinawa, while Chinese forces could use their amphibious ships to go back and forth across the narrow Taiwan Strait.
Some American military analysts believe China could now defeat Taiwan before American forces could arrive at the scene, leaving a political decision about whether to attack, even though Taiwan would already be lost.
Even the most hawkish officials at the Pentagon do not believe China is preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan. Nor do analysts believe China is any match for the United States military. But as neighboring North Korea is erratically trying to play the nuclear card, China is quietly challenging America's reach in the western Pacific by concentrating strategically on conventional forces.
"They are building their force to deter and delay our ability to intervene in a Taiwan crisis," said Eric McVadon, a former military attaché at the United States Embassy in Beijing. "What they have done is cleverly develop some capabilities that have the prospect of attacking our niche vulnerabilities."
China's rapid military modernization is the major reason President Bush has warned the European Union not to lift its arms embargo against Beijing. At the same time, some officials in Washington, particularly on Capitol Hill, would like Taiwan to buy more American arms to beef up its own defenses.
Japan, America's closest ally in East Asia and China's rival for regional dominance, is also watching China's buildup and reorganizing its own military. The Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, has echoed President Bush by calling on Europe to leave the arms embargo against China in place. A research center affiliated with Japan's Defense Ministry has also criticized China's increased military spending and cautioned that Beijing was rushing to prepare for possible conflict with Taiwan, an assertion China sharply denied.
The growing friction between Japan and China, fueled by rising nationalism in both countries, is just one of the political developments adding to tensions in East Asia. In March, China passed a controversial new "antisecession" law authorizing a military attack if top leaders in Beijing believe Taiwan moves too far toward independence - a move that brought hundreds of thousands of people in Taiwan out to protest China's most recent military white paper also alarmed American policy makers because it mentioned the United States by name for the first time since 1998. It stated that the American presence in the region "complicated security factors." China, meanwhile, accused the United States and Japan of meddling in a domestic Chinese matter when Washington and Tokyo recently issued a joint security statement that listed peace in Taiwan as a "common strategic objective."
"The potential for a miscalculation or an incident here has actually increased, just based on the rhetoric over the past six months to a year," one American intelligence analyst in Washington said.
At a welcoming ceremony on March 28 for the command ship Blue Ridge, of the American Seventh Fleet, here at the home base of China's South Sea Fleet, the American commanding officer, Capt. J. Stephen Maynard, and his Chinese counterpart, Senior Capt. Wen Rulang, sidestepped questions about the antisecession law and military tensions. Asked about China's military buildup and how America should view it, Captain Wen praised the United States Navy as the most modern in the world.
"As for China," Captain Wen said, "our desire is to upgrade China's self-defense capabilities."
In China's view, however, self-defense involves Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province and which the United States, by treaty, has suggested it would help defend. In 1996, when China fired warning-shot missiles across the Taiwan Strait before the Taiwanese elections, President Clinton responded by sending a carrier battle group to a position near Taiwan. Then, China could do nothing about it, Now, analysts say, it can.
In fact, American carriers responding to a crisis would now initially have to operate at least 500 miles from Taiwan, which would reduce the number of fighter sorties they could launch. This is because China now has a modern fleet of submarines, including new Russian-made nuclear subs that can fire missiles from a submerged position. America would first need to subdue these submarines.
China launched 13 attack submarines between 2002 and 2004, a period when it also built 23 ships that can ferry tanks, armored vehicles and troops across the 100-mile strait. Tomohide Murai, an expert on the Chinese military at the National Defense Academy in Tokyo, said that China's buildup is intended to focus on an American response, but he is skeptical that China already has the naval and air superiority over Taiwan to dominate the strait.
But Mr. Murai said China's military would continue to expand and modernize for years to come because of the country's booming economy, while Japan is restricted by budget constraints and its World War II era Constitution. Chinese subs and Japanese vessels already have played politically explosive cat-and-mouse games around a string of islands claimed by both countries.
"The speed of our modernization is not so rapid as in China," Mr. Murai said. "Many people in Japan worry that the balance eventually will be less favorable."
China, meanwhile, often expresses concern about rising militarism in Japan and notes that Japan spends more on its military budget - a debatable point since Western experts say China vastly understates its own military spending. China also worries that the United States Navy could be used to try to cut off oil supplies if a conflict ever arises over Taiwan.
Asked about growing concerns in Washington over China's military buildup, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, said: "American worries are unnecessary. We stick to the path of peaceful development, and we do not pose threats to American influence."
Robert Karniol, an Asia specialist at Jane's Defense Weekly, noted that Japan is also modernizing its military in a significant way, largely as its competes with China for regional dominance in Asia. He said Japan is restructuring the independent branches of its military under a unified command modeled after the American Joint Chiefs of Staff.
And just as Japan is looking at China, he said, so is China looking past Taiwan at Japan. China's naval upgrades will not only strengthen its hand against Taiwan but also expand its influence around Asia.
"If the Taiwan issue was resolved next month, China's military modernization would not end," Mr. Karniol said. "The Chinese understand that if their ambition is to become the dominant power in Asia - well, who can disrupt that? The United States and Japan."
Jim Yardley reported from Zhanjiang for this article, and ThomShankerfrom Washington.
The Jews of the Orient reference refers to the stereotype of Chinese as being "tight with money"...
In other words, the stereotype is negative since it implies a miserliness on par with Scrooge.
(I am part Chinese and also descended from German Jews. I know absolutely nothing about either heritage except that I have ancestors from both.)
The Chinese will attack Taiwan when outward aggression becomes the only way to release the internal pressures caused by their rapid development and economic expansion. It will become the primary way for the Communist Party to maintain its power and channel the growing military's energy at an external enemy.
Give me odds PING!
Further evidence a carrier group should be based in Guam. It won't be. The Hawaiicans and the military prefer their bases to be easy livin' and junketing. Unfortunately for the Taiwanese.
Of course, Guam's 'government' sure doesn't make it easy to put things there, with their willingness to f up just about everything the U.S. government has provided.
However, Guam's government does serve as a great example--of how the U.S. is gonna go to hell.
The NY Slimes would have us believe the PRC navy could pose a present threat while we are in Iraq??
Yeah, try as they might to make a showing, the Chinese blue water navy was able to do little more than pay lip service during the recent tidal wave disaster, they could not project their commie power.
They may be a long term future worry, but for now they are nothing, and I mean nothing, for the US navy to be concerned about.
If some day they should choose to challenge the US, they need to remember how we broke the Soviets in that little arms race. The internal social strife China will soon be facing consists of horrific problems that will keep them occupied and in dire financial straits for decades, that is if they even survive the coming turmoil.
Making the PRC wealthy was foolish on our part.
China is no match for America. The same people who foolishly believe they are, are the ones who predicted massive American casualties when we invaded Afghanistan.
The internal social strife of China could cause them to direct their nationalism towards Taiwan. We'll see. They haven't been too helpful with North Korea.
From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
I dunno, the Chinese are great pragmatists. I don't really think it will happen ... but I could see them attacking Taiwan now while we already have our hands full. After all, as the article points out, once they have taken Taiwan, would we really have the political stomach for a full-out confrontation to take it back? There are so many nellies in this country that think there is *never* any good reason for a war.
The only stereotype intended was that of smart folks in business.
Thanks for the pic.
marker
There is little proof to show that China has purchased or will purchase Russian N-subs.The Russians don't have that much trust in China & besides China is building it's own N-boats.I think the author is referring to the new Kilo class boats being built in Russia for the PLAN-these come with the Klub stand-off missile.
Another point he forgets is that China has another big Asian rival-India & the Russians are indeed prepared to lease 2 Akula class subs to India!!
But statements like these:
This is because China now has a modern fleet of submarines, including new Russian-made nuclear subs that can fire missiles from a submerged position.
are wholly inaccurate. The Chinese have bought eight Russian diesel/electric boats that can shoot cruise missiles and in litoral waters they are a threat. But outside of five very incabale nuclear attack subs of their own, they have none. The Russians have sold them or supplied them with exactly none.
They are in the process of building a new class of these subs, the Type 093, but they are having problems and they will be two to three generations behind our own SSN's when they come out, roughly equivalent to the initial batch of Los Angeles Class boats. This will still represent a significant leap forward by the Chinese and pose a threat in the China Sea and beyond. But I believe they have only completed one of these boats and they continue to be plagued by technical issues in the program.
But again, to date, the Russians have NOT sold the Chinese any nuclear subs to my knowledge...or any place else I can find.
As much as I dislike the NYT's and their politics...I am still surprised that they would make a mistake this glaring on a technical issue.
It is a news that NYT views Chinese Navy as a serious threat.
Maybe they are war-mongering, too. /sarcasm
A decade ago Clinton was swimming in Red China campaign cash. (An out of context quote, but I couldn't resist)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.