Posted on 04/05/2005 6:16:40 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
SPACE CENTER, Houston - After a two-year struggle to keep big chunks of foam from coming off the shuttle fuel tank during launch, NASA acknowledged Tuesday even marshmallow-size pieces could doom the spacecraft under the worst circumstances.
Shuttle systems engineering manager John Muratore said it is a risk NASA and the nation must accept for flights to resume anytime soon.
It would take years and a total redesign of the fuel tank to completely eliminate foam loss and to ensure the 2003 Columbia tragedy would never be repeated, Muratore and other officials said.
NASA expects pieces of insulating foam no bigger than one or two marshmallows to break off the fuel tank when Discovery blasts off next month. Depending on where and when the pieces hit, they could cause catastrophic damage during re-entry, Muratore said.
By contrast, the size of the foam that shattered Columbia's left wing was the size of a carryon suitcase.
Muratore told reporters he was "trying to be scrupulously honest with you about what the potential is but that doesn't say that's what we expect to happen." He likened the situation to trying to predict the chances of being in a fatal car accident while driving to the airport.
"If we have that worst day, and the tire is worn and you have a flat tire in the wrong place in traffic, next to a truck going 90 mph, could you get killed? Yes, you could. Is that a reasonable set of assumptions to plan your trip on? Probably not."
Muratore said assessing the danger from foam and other launch debris is an extremely complicated engineering problem made even more uncertain by the fact that computer models show little pieces of foam could cause catastrophic damage. NASA's flight experience over the decades has proven otherwise.
What NASA has to do to get smarter, Muratore said, is to stop relying on computer models and start flying the space shuttle again.
Discovery is scheduled to blast off in mid-May on the first shuttle flight since the Columbia disaster on Feb. 1, 2003. NASA plans to move the spacecraft to the launch pad Wednesday.
NASA will fly five types of repair kits aboard Discovery for the astronauts to test in space, but the rudimentary patches will accommodate holes no bigger than 4 inches. The gash that brought down Columbia was an estimated 6 inches to 10 inches in size.
Steve Poulos Jr., a shuttle project manager, said a repair kit to fix that big of a hole should be available in two years.
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On the Net:
NASA: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov
The space shuttle Discovery sits on the mobile launcher platform in the Vehicle Assembly Building, VAB, at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. Tuesday, April 5, 2005. The rust colored unit is the external fuel tank and on either side of it are the solid rocket boosters. Discovery is scheduled to be rolled out of the VAB to the pad early Wednesday. Discovery is scheduled for launch no earlier than May 15 on a mission to the international space station carrying a crew of seven.(AP Photo/Peter Cosgrove)
There will never be spaceflight if we can't accept the risks.
Too bad the risks can't be divided into smaller pieces.
The space shuttle Discovery arrives in the Vehicle Assembly Building after being transported from the Orbiter Processing Facility at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida March 29, 2005. NASA passed a significant milestone in its two-year quest to return the shuttle fleet to flight when shuttle Discovery left its processing hangar early on Tuesday and made a quarter-mile journey to the assembly building. (Charles W Luzier/Reuters)
The space shuttle Discovery hangs is it's sling in the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida March 29, 2005. Discovery will be lifted vertical to the top of the building, then turned, lowered and attached to the solid rocket boosters and external fuel tank. NASA passed a significant milestone in it's two year quest to return the shuttle fleet to flight. REUTERS/Charles W. Luzier
I'm thinking Space Bondo myself.. ;-)
But if they asked me to go the day after either of the disaster flights I would have said "get Me a suit"
Exactly.
No, No - Super Duper Mach 10 Duct Tape.
a marshmallow could leave a good sized hole , many inches possibly, Super Duper Mach 10 Duct Tape? foot wide right? and we're covered.. ;-)
Mankinds greatest acheivements have been about 20% knowledge, 20% luck and 60% risk. When Chuck Yeager strapped himself into the X-1 he knew it was a flying bomb that couldn't land with a fuel load.
If you can not redesign the fuel tank then provide some hi temp metallic shielding for the leading wing edge insulation even if some payload capacity is lost.
Look at kids car seats today! When I was a lad, I sat next to Dad and shifted the gears at 60 mph on the Jersey Turnpike!
WHATTARUSH!
The risk of total failure (including loss of crew) per shuttle flight remains at about 1 out of 80. This hasn't changed since the beginning of the program and as complicated as the shuttle is, it isn't going to change.
Any new vehicle to replace the shuttle is not likely to see much of an improvement in that number because high risk is inherent to manned spaceflight.
Look what this guy did:
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